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Democratic strategist: Party 'in decline'

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by bobmarley, May 11, 2013.

  1. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    One of the Democrats’ most veteran strategists warns that the party is “in decline” and “at considerable risk” when President Barack Obama is no longer on the scene.

    “Since Obama was elected President, the Democrats have lost nine governorships, 56 members of the House and two Senate seats,” Doug Sosnik, the political director in Bill Clinton’s White House, writes in a new memo.

    While Republican branding problems get the lion’s share of attention, the Democratic Party’s favorability rating has declined by 15 points since Obama took power. A Pew Research Center survey this January showed that the Democratic Party was viewed favorably by 47 percent of Americans, down from 62 percent in Jan. 2009.

    With the likelihood of gridlock and near-record-low confidence in public institutions, Sosnik expects 2014 to bring the fourth change election in the past eight years.

    “This puts Senate Democrats in a vulnerable position, while threatening Republican’s control of the House as well as their sizeable numerical advantage in the governorships across the country,” writes Sosnik, who advised Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential race and now does consulting work for a variety of private-sector clients.

    Obama neither directly campaigned nor raised money for down-ticket Democrats last year. The post-election creation of Organizing for Action to push his own agenda has upset party regulars because it makes the Democratic National Committee less relevant than ever, squeezes fundraising for other Democratic groups and emphasizes issues that put moderates in a bind.

    “Obama not only got elected by running against the party establishment, but he has governed as a President who does not emphasize his party label,” writes Sosnik. “It’s hard to be a change agent if you are lugging around a party label in an era where voters are so strongly disaffected from our institutions.”

    These memos are read closely by an influential community of insiders in the political and business worlds. In this one, Sosnik outlines several challenges facing his own party:

    • Obama’s personal popularity does not easily translate for other candidates. The president is not building the Democratic Party’s institutional apparatus in a way that it will thrive when he’s gone.

    • The losses in the 2010 midterms gave Republicans control of the redistricting process, which will be in effect until after the 2020 census. This gives the GOP a structural advantage in keeping the House.

    • Millennials, born 1981 to 1994, and Generation X’ers, born 1965 to 1980, are voting Democratic, but a plurality identify themselves as independents — which makes them less reliable.

    • Democrats cannot count on the same level of African-American turnout without Obama at the top of the ticket. Sosnik cites new analysis showing that in 2012 for the first time ever eligible black voters turned out a higher rate than whites.

    While Republicans have a serious Hispanic problem, Sosnik explains, “younger Hispanics feel less of an allegiance to the Democratic Party than their elders.” Only 50 percent of Hispanic voters aged 18-34 identify themselves as Democrats, according to Gallup, compared to 59 percent of Hispanic voters 55 or older.

    If Hillary Clinton does not run, Sosnik fears that Democrats will be left with a thin bench of top-flight presidential contenders in 2016.

    Looking to 2014, Democratic base groups also tend to turn out at lower rates for midterms than presidential elections.

    In terms of actual policy making, Sosnik believes that it will be “almost impossible” for Obama to effectively engage Congress.

    “Obama’s victory last November was a great political achievement, but the fact that he didn’t set out a clear policy agenda for a second term left him without a clear mandate to govern over a politically divided Congress,” he writes.

    Sosnik notes that many Republicans are more concerned about losing in a primary than a general election, which makes compromise harder.

    “Furthermore,” he writes, “there’s not a single member of either party who fears paying a political price for not falling in line with the President, making it even more difficult to get members to cast difficult votes.”


    Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/...rty-in-decline-91172_Page2.html#ixzz2T23FUlas
     
  2. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    In decline until they get 11 million new voters amnestied
     
  3. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    Last I heard no proposal really has an amnesty as part of it.

    Could you let me know where the amnesty part comes in?
     
  4. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    It is the part where they legalize millions of illegals.
     
  5. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    Good luck passing that through Congress.
     
  6. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    Haven't really seen that part.

    Here's what I did see.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/14/rubio-immigration-amnesty-_n_3080184.html
     
  7. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    Well unlike "gunshow loophole" and "assault weapon", amnesty isn't a totally political word that has no legal meaning outside of talking head rhetoric. So once you stop using those BS phony words, you might find yourself with more standing when differentiating the grey area between real term usage.
     
  8. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    When you can show me amnesty then you'll have a point. Right now I don't see it. But I'm open to looking if you want to present it.
     
  9. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    I'll do that right after you show me a loophole. Well actually I won't because some terrible basketball is on TV now.
     
  10. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    This is good news for Ted Cruz.
     
  11. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  12. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    OP, can you post that again using more font sizes please? That would help me understand your take home cut-n-pasta message most clearly.
     
    1 person likes this.
  13. NMS is the Best

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    This is what they call - I believe it is from psychology - projection. A textbook example of it.
     
  14. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    The author of that article (Hohmann from Politico) is as far right as it gets. I know from very personal experience. Not that it totally discredits it, but worth noting.
     
  15. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    One of the Democrats’ most veteran strategists warns that the party is “in decline” and “at considerable risk” when President Barack Obama is no longer on the scene.

    “Since Obama was elected President, the Democrats have lost nine governorships, 56 members of the House and two Senate seats,” Doug Sosnik, the political director in Bill Clinton’s White House, writes in a new memo.


    While Republican branding problems get the lion’s share of attention, the Democratic Party’s favorability rating has declined by 15 points since Obama took power. A Pew Research Center survey this January showed that the Democratic Party was viewed favorably by 47 percent of Americans, down from 62 percent in Jan. 2009.

    With the likelihood of gridlock and near-record-low confidence in public institutions, Sosnik expects 2014 to bring the fourth change election in the past eight years.

    “This puts Senate Democrats in a vulnerable position, while threatening Republican’s control of the House as well as their sizeable numerical advantage in the governorships across the country,” writes Sosnik, who advised Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential race and now does consulting work for a variety of private-sector clients.

    Obama neither directly campaigned nor raised money for down-ticket Democrats last year. The post-election creation of Organizing for Action to push his own agenda has upset party regulars because it makes the Democratic National Committee less relevant than ever, squeezes fundraising for other Democratic groups and emphasizes issues that put moderates in a bind.

    “Obama not only got elected by running against the party establishment, but he has governed as a President who does not emphasize his party label,” writes Sosnik. “It’s hard to be a change agent if you are lugging around a party label in an era where voters are so strongly disaffected from our institutions.”

    These memos are read closely by an influential community of insiders in the political and business worlds. In this one, Sosnik outlines several challenges facing his own party:

    • Obama’s personal popularity does not easily translate for other candidates. The president is not building the Democratic Party’s institutional apparatus in a way that it will thrive when he’s gone.

    • The losses in the 2010 midterms gave Republicans control of the redistricting process, which will be in effect until after the 2020 census. This gives the GOP a structural advantage in keeping the House.

    • Millennials, born 1981 to 1994, and Generation X’ers, born 1965 to 1980, are voting Democratic, but a plurality identify themselves as independents — which makes them less reliable.

    • Democrats cannot count on the same level of African-American turnout without Obama at the top of the ticket. Sosnik cites new analysis showing that in 2012 for the first time ever eligible black voters turned out a higher rate than whites.

    While Republicans have a serious Hispanic problem, Sosnik explains, “younger Hispanics feel less of an allegiance to the Democratic Party than their elders.” Only 50 percent of Hispanic voters aged 18-34 identify themselves as Democrats, according to Gallup, compared to 59 percent of Hispanic voters 55 or older.

    If Hillary Clinton does not run, Sosnik fears that Democrats will be left with a thin bench of top-flight presidential contenders in 2016.

    Looking to 2014, Democratic base groups also tend to turn out at lower rates for midterms than presidential elections.

    In terms of actual policy making, Sosnik believes that it will be “almost impossible” for Obama to effectively engage Congress.

    “Obama’s victory last November was a great political achievement, but the fact that he didn’t set out a clear policy agenda for a second term left him without a clear mandate to govern over a politically divided Congress,” he writes.

    Sosnik notes that many Republicans are more concerned about losing in a primary than a general election, which makes compromise harder.

    “Furthermore,” he writes, “there’s not a single member of either party who fears paying a political price for not falling in line with the President, making it even more difficult to get members to cast difficult votes.”
     
  16. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    Sure the loophole is that in some states private citizens who aren't in the firearm business can sell guns without a background check, and don't have to keep record of the sale.
     
  17. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    What about Doug Sosnik? He is the the one all the info is from.

     
  18. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    Ohhh fail.

    1. Some states should read most states.

    2. Nothing you said meets this in any way "A loophole is an ambiguity in a system, such as a law or security, which can be used to circumvent or otherwise avoid the intent, implied or explicitly stated, of the system."

    3. You never mentioned a gunshow.

    Poor effort, poor job.
     
  19. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    I think he is implying that people with clean records can buy lots of guns, at say, a gunshow and then turn around and sell them to people who can't pass background check for a profit. I am only guessing at what he is trying to say.
     
  20. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Contributing Member
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    Its called "regression towards the mean". Any time either party has been in ascension, there is immediate pressure back towards equilibrium. If you are in power, you are automatically fighting pressures pushing you down.

    Anybody remember around 2003 when some on the Republican periphery were crowing about their "permanent majority"? The image of Caesar walking around with a guy whispering his mortality in his ear comes to mind. Remember all the polling information not too long after that showing a massive impending swing to the left not too long after?

    Almost all of these things will poll exactly the other direction as soon as Republicans come back in power. Anybody who thinks they are seeing a real, lasting permanent change placing their ideology in permanent ascension is a moron.
     

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