Daryl Denying Dwight, Analytics, and the Hard-Headedness of Dwight Regarding PnR vs Post-Up

I certainly won't believe in what Dwight Howard says since he seems to be a decent liar.

 

James Harden the problem though.

 

That's about as accurate description as I've seen. Too many times people only consider the results and not the circumstances.

The last couple of years it was a no-brainer for opponents to choose which poison they prefer. For the Rockets to be successful there's going to have to be another offense threat for teams to worry about.

 

Way to use stats... even if obvious to those who watch.

Random question, where is the other 38% of Dwight's frequency from? I have to assume offensive rebounds. What else?

Second random question, who are the league leaders in post-up efficiency if you are just looking at bigs (4s/5s)?

 

We invested in Dwight, we provided him the tools to learn (Olajuwon, McHale), we gave him his opportunities. But as his contract winds down, and his uncertain future with the team grows, it makes no sense to continue the investments. The return was never there. He simply is not a post up basketball player.

I am not mad at him. I am grateful for his three years. He was excellent in his first two and we did extremely well last year. Perhaps had we landed that third big piece in Melo, Lowry or Bosh, last year we could have won it all.

But we didn't, and we have to retool around Harden. Dwight can be a part of that, in a much more limited role, or he can choose to leave. Its up to him.

No hard feelings from me, either way. Thank you Dwight, we wish you well.

 

Truly awesome post, cdrive.

So that's one part of the equation that makes DM's resistance more understandable -- the simple fact that Dwight's post-up game isn't as effective as he thinks it is.

Two other parts:

* Dwight has now admitted that he's scared to add other elements to his game because he might miss and everyone would be mad at him. To compound that, his post-up game has devolved along with his athleticism. When he does get the ball deep, his moves are slow and plodding and often result in steals.

* The game itself has moved away from the days of entry passes into the post where your big center can wreak havoc. If Dwight had learned to spot the open man quickly and pass back out, he would at least be keeping the defense guessing. It's a different NBA now than when he started, and he's now a bull in a china shop.

So what Morey was faced with was max superstar who's bread-and-butter was no longer the dagger it once was, but more of a dull spoon, and yet who refused to evolve for reasons of personal insecurity. DM's not a genius for making that call -- hell, most of us here would have made it, too.

Dwight's career from this point forward is not going to be pretty.
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You can't compare Asik and Dwight. Asik was brought in for defensive purposes only. Any sort of offense was just a bonus.

I don't think post touches are very relevant. Dwight isn't a stupid player. If he has the ball in the post but isn't in his comfort zone, he'll pass out of the post and re-position himself. However, the ball would rarely come back to him. That still counts as a post touch, but it's not what Dwight wants.

It's not hard to guess what Dwight and Morey talked about. We all knew that Dwight saw himself as an offensive threat and that he didn't sign with LA b/c they wanted him to play a "Tyson Chandler" role. Obviously, we promised him more.

 

Nobody posts up as much these days due to the current defensive rules. It's just too easy to pack the paint. Marc Gasol leads the league with 7.2 postups per game (5.3 fga on postups).

For guys that post up 3 or more times per game, here's some of the leading ppp.

M. Gasol 0.89
B. Lopez 0.95
Aldridge 1.0
Cousins 9.6
Vucevic 9.3
Nowitzki 1.02
K. Love 0.98
R. Anderson 1.01
Millsap 1.04.

 

Count me in that group, too.

Since Harden arrived, Asik, Howard and Capela were all asked to focus on PnR and guess who felt it was beneath him? Hell, even Joey Freakin' Dorsey bought into it. When Dwight does come out to set a pick, he rarely seems to be thinking about the other half of the play.

Look at it this way: The fact that our season has been over for weeks now and nobody with the team -- NOT ONE PERSON -- has mentioned that convincing Dwight to opt-in is a priority. Nobody's said a word about wanting him to stay. That right there is all you need to know.
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Excellent post. Slightly unrelated and I know he was injured and out of sorts, but dmo looked surprisingly bad in every category. I had not quite expected it to be that bad. No wonder they didn't play him much.

 

Kind of excited to see Capela get about a million PnRs with James next season.

 

when dew-white kept hush hush, peeps be like don't turn your back on howard, if you do you're an infidel. Neg rep for you! Now that dew-white has added morley to his burn book, peeps be like, I never liked that smiling coward! basketball supposed to be fun?

we knew what we had in dew-white. Organization lured him in with false promises of him being a focal point of the offense. Otherwise he doesn't come here. So I don't blame Howard for pulling an Asik. I'm just glad we no longer have to deal with all that. Though it will be tough luring a player of that caliber via FA with the way the organization baits and switches.

 

I'm not comparing them, i was just saying this cause for some people it's coaching or Harden's fault if Dwight doesn't play what he should but wants to play what he shouldn't.

And how you don't think post touches are relevant? That's what he always wanted in his career, to be a post player and not a screener/roller...this is well known and proved at this point...i think you're just overestimating Dwight, facts talk for him at this point, and the reality is that if all around the NBA all the coaches, players, gms are telling you one thing and you just refuse to consider it to stick with your fancy dreams, you are not that smart...

 

Harrell's post game is the most reliable. I want to see a lot more of that next season.

 

Good analysis. If Dwight and Morey are on different pages, I'm more upset at why things weren't discussed prior to signing him. If Morey vetted Dwight properly prior to signing him, he should've pitched how we were going to involve Dwight into the offense.

But by things not being discussed and out in the open, Dwight and management aren't happy with each other and it's wasted potential.

 

Suppose your ship is about to hit an iceberg, but you promised a passenger you would sail straight home. Morey says, go around the iceberg. Dwight says, but you promised.

 

most free agents know that Dwight sucks at posting up, so that doesn't really matter

 

Yikes. That's rough. The old school post-up game is so in the dumps.

 

Your facts mean nothing! Mowrie is too geeky and dosent know basketball!

 

So basically your take on this is that you dont deny Dwight sucked at the post, but that he does suck but Morey is to blame anyway because he allegedly broke some promise to Dwight? Nice! by the way, Were you there when they made this promise to Dwight that we would run our entire offense thru him?

Understand this, even if said promised was made, it wasnt broken. The dude did get a huge amount of touches at the post, he just sucked at it!