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Daryl Denying Dwight, Analytics, and the Hard-Headedness of Dwight Regarding PnR vs Post-Up

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by cdrive, May 20, 2016.

  1. cdrive

    cdrive Contributing Member

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    We recently learned in an ESPN article that Dwight opined for more involvement to Daryl Morey.


    [ESPN]Howard: "I felt like my role was being reduced. I went to [Rockets general manager] Daryl [Morey] and said, 'I want to be more involved.' Daryl said, 'No, we don't want you to be.' My response was, 'Why not? Why am I here?' It was shocking to me that it came from him instead of our coach. So I said to him, 'No disrespect to what you do, but you've never played the game. I've been in this game a long time. I know what it takes to be effective.''​


    Dwight is obviously telling his side of things in an effort to re-brand himself....yet again. But he intentionally omitted howwww he wanted to be more involved.

    A recent Jason Terry radio interview following up on the article provided more detail and clarity:


    "But I said 'Dwight, listen, at some point in your career, you are going to have to decide do you want to become a champion? If becoming a champion means set more screens, roll harder to the basket, run the floor more, then that's what you have to do. You can't worry about if I'm getting touches in the post. It doesn't matter. It's whatever your team needs you to do on that particular night to get the win.'
    "So, Daryl Morey didn't say we aren't going to give you the ball. We're just not going to give it to you in the post because that's not our style of play."

    So now we know Dwight was confronting Daryl about more offensive spotlight specifically related to post-up touches. And Daryl told him they didn't want to increase his post-up touches.

    Kudos to Daryl. In fairness to Daryl, he is right and within bounds to tell the big man "No." (analytics to follow soon..) As for Howard, it just shows how he still perpetually struggles to deal with accepting where he is effective, and where he will never be effective.

    We all knew Howard's mindset coming from L.A. to Houston. He seemed completely turned off from being a roll man any longer in a PnR 2-man game, despite having a huge opportunity, albeit a small window of time, to learn from one the greatest PnR guards, Steve Nash, and a great PnR coach in D'Antoni. For some reason he thought he was ready to unleash his dominant post-up game upon the world. He was somewhat right. The Portland series? We saw an effective, dominant Dwight post-up repertoire.

    But 2015-2016 Howard looked like he had cement in his shoes, Forrest Gump braces on his legs, and a rake duct taped to his back. Below are some of the efficiency analytics we and Morey were seeing last season:

    Post Up:
    [​IMG]
    30.5% Dwight's attempts were already post up shots. And he wanted more? His PPP (points per possession) was only 0.82 when he posted up.

    To help put that into perspective, let's bring up Corey Brewer, who was terrible last year, and look at his Spot Up efficiency:

    Corey's Spot Up:
    [​IMG]

    Corey's PPP on spot up shots was 0.79, which is basically the same as Dwight's PPP on post-up attempts at 0.82. And people would cringe, rightfully so, every time Corey jacked up another brick. But because so many of those attempts were 3 point attempts, his PPP was nearly the same despite his atrocious shooting percentages.

    Also noteworthy, Corey's spot up frequency was 32.7%. So just like Dwight, a 1/3rd of Corey's shot selection was going to shots that yielded about 0.79-0.82 PPP. So irrespective of salaries and where each player ranks on the totem pole, Dwight asking Morey for more post up touches is basically like Corey telling Morey he wants to shoot more. Sit well with you? Not with me.


    Now let's look at 2 more shot selections for Dwight. Cuts and PnRs.

    Cuts:
    [​IMG]

    Dwight's frequency is only 22.2% despite how this is the type of shot where he eats. 1.38 PPP. This is the area to increase Dwight's involvement, not post up touches. Granted cut plays to the big man aren't as easy to throw at defenses again and again. Typically this is an easy bucket taking advantage of a defense sleeping.

    So finally, let's look at Dwight's efficiency as the roll man in PnR plays:

    PnR:
    [​IMG]


    PPP is 1.10, but frequency is an astoundingly low 9.3%. With respect to frequency, Capela rolled to the basket twice as much as Howard! (frequency 18.5%) D-Mo with a lackluster 0.88 PPP as a roll man rolled to the basket twice as much as Howard! (frequency 18.2%)

    This was the elephant in the room. Here is where his touches should increase. Only 9% PnRs, and 30.5% Post-Ups. What did Howard want? Half of his attempts to be Post up touches? That's nuts. That's like saying half of Brewer's attempts should be jacking up shots, when ideally all of Brewer's shots should be high-octane transition lay ups.

    So again, kudos to Daryl for not bending over and catering in to Howard's whining for more post ups. Dwight's recent effort to re-market himself for future suitors is purposefully spinning a half-truth. 4 years removed from L.A. now and still stuck with the same reality: Dwight, the best thing you can do for yourself and your next team is to accept that you are never going to be a post up guy, and you need to get back to where you are most effective, PnRs... Captain Obvious, true...but it's obvious to everyone except Dwight still it seems.
     
    #1 cdrive, May 20, 2016
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
    34 people like this.
  2. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    Thank you! I enjoyed reading that.
     
  3. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Great post. Reinforces the obliviousness of Dwight Howard in his recent media PR tour. Dwight's insistence on limiting what he does well and increasing what he does not do well is insanity that is almost never seen in professional sports.
     
  4. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    Agreed.

    But you don't even need any analytics to know that posting up Dwight is bad. Mr Anti-Analytics Charles Barkley even thinks Dwight has no post-up game, and he's right.

    Dwight is delusional. And what's even crazier than him thinking he should get more post-ups, is that he thinks he should be encouraged to shoot jumpers.

    :confused::confused::confused::confused:
     
  5. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    What's disappointing is that when he would roll to the basket and accept that type of role in the offense, we could kill teams. The stretches where he and Harden would play PnR we would devastate teams. And then it just would stop.
     
  6. studogg

    studogg Contributing Member

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    good post.

    I've always hated the portland series as a reference to how good dwight is. Frankly, that was always a load of ****.

    Portland put full focus on shutting down harden and left dwight one on one in the post. He should win one on one's at a higher than 50% clip.

    It wasn't dwight showing his dominance. It was Portland choosing their poison.
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. wekko368

    wekko368 Member

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    Actually, Morey is wrong. When Dwight joined us as a FA, promises were made to him. Regardless of how poorly Dwight has been in the post, those promises have now been broken. You can argue that Morey is doing what's best for the team, but how do you think it looks to prospective free agents?
     
  8. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member

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    That the org is not stupid enough to cater to a prima donna in major decline?

    DD
     
  9. SF3isBack!!

    SF3isBack!! Member

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    Thank You, great post. You should have called this post "Dwight for dummies". Some of us had this already figured out for months now. Hard to explain it to some c.f. hard heads without being called a harden lover, lol.
     
  10. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    I suspect it's very evident to the front office how inefficient Dwight is in the way he plays or wants to play.

    That they've explained this to him.

    That he doesn't care or refuses to believe it.

    And they now just want him to leave because he won't change.
     
  11. dje243

    dje243 Member

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    Exactly. The stretches where Howard was dominant he was working hard on the glass, setting good screens and actually rolling to the rim like he cared. Seeing Dwight slip screens and then STILL lag way behind on PNR's was so frustrating. :mad:
     
  12. JoeBarelyCares

    JoeBarelyCares Contributing Member

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    As much as we love Hakeem, having him try to teach Dwight post up moves only Hakeem had the physical ability to effectively master and reinforcing the mantra that the big man should "demand the ball" probably didn't help things.
     
  13. Vivi

    Vivi Member

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    Well, we already saw how Asik was effective and willing to play this with Harden years ago...nothing new, everybody knows at this point, or at least everybody should know...thanks for posting though, good thread.


    You don't know what they talked in reality, that said, he still had more post touches than anybody in the league so...
     
  14. joeson332

    joeson332 Member

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    So, Barkley was right?
     
  15. OTMax

    OTMax Member

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    Exactly. We saw one game in Portland where he committed to the pick and roll and we destroyed them and the rest was just him putting up numbers due to more touches since Harden was the focus. Remember when he got all those touches in game 2, Portland just let him have it, because they knew it would keep the rest out of the game.
     
  16. wekko368

    wekko368 Member

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    That's a fan's perspective. But if you're a prospective FA, why would you consider signing with the Rockets when they've showed a willingness to break promises?

    For instance, if you're a star FA pg, and Rockets' management is telling you that you'll be allowed to run the offense, are you going to believe them?
     
  17. Vivi

    Vivi Member

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    Well, Stan Van Gundy forced him this way, and that led to a final and a sacking...D'Antoni and Nash tried to force him this way and D'Antoni got fired...McHale talked about this a couple of time too but yeah...
     
  18. Amel

    Amel Contributing Member

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    Yea, Dwight is turning even people who have some respect for him

    I mean, he tells half truths and totally thinks he's not gonna get away with it...its a pattern that has been built over the years.

    Sorry Dwight, but I'm done defending you
     
  19. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    This might be true. We heard the same thing from Asik: that he was guaranteed to be our starting C.

    So I suppose it is likely that during their courting of Dwight they said something like "we promise to get you involved on offense" but ehhh who cares. Mark Cuban promised Dirk that he'd surround him with a contender if he took a paycut; Milwaukee almost certainly promised Greg Monroe that he'd be a big part of their franchise for years if he signed there; and so on and so forth.

    These empty promises are the norm.
     
  20. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    So what were the promises made to Dwight? How do you know what was promised?

    I seriously doubt that Dwight was promised a specific number of postups
     
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