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Daily LeBron Odds Tracker

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Coach E, Jun 5, 2018.

  1. Coach E

    Coach E Member

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    1.4:1 odds now, I was worried with philly and calengo parting ways that it would be worse off.

    They actually went down and we actually went up.
     
  2. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    Probably because of what happened in Game 3.
     
  3. apollo33

    apollo33 KMart Only Fan
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    1 YARD LINE???!?!?!
     
  4. rantsolpuella13

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    The Colangelo firing probably won’t increase Philly’s odds too much. The Colangelo firing + David Griffin potentially being hired will cause those odd to flip however.
     
    justtxyank likes this.
  5. khanhdum

    khanhdum Member

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    Tuesday 5:45pm book it
     
    Daddy Long Legs and Coach E like this.
  6. aroundtheblock2

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    I think it would be mighty weak of Philly to hire Griffin just because of LeBron. Talk about short sighted.
     
    everyday eddie likes this.
  7. rantsolpuella13

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    Nah, not weak, it’s actually a masterful move by them:
    1) LeBron loves him as a GM and was reported to be very upset after Griffin was let go.
    2) Griffin has previous GM experience on multiple teams
    3) Griffin has experience dealing with stars (eg. LeBron)
    4) He is definitely more of an analytics guy with more of a basketball eye and less of a mad scientist then Hinkie ever was during his time in Philly

    Unfortunately Griffin to Philly is a perfect fit even ignoring the LeBron ties. Philly ownership would be out of their minds if they are not approaching him right now.
     
    jayydela likes this.
  8. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    Remember that the betting lines are a function of a business to make money off your gambling so things like how much money people put on a specific betting line factors into those odds because the casino is essentially balancing a risk portfolio so they will change the odds to entice bidding that favors their portfolio strategy. It's not about the likelihood of a specific event happening so much as enticing a number of bets in different risk buckets so that one single outcome won't bankrupt the business. At least that's sorta how I heard a former 'sharp'(Bob Voulgaris) once explain it on a podcast.

    In other words, if a bunch of us went and dropped everything we owned on 'Lebron coming to Houston' at a specific casino while no one was betting on Philly, the casino may respond by handicapping the odds of Lebron coming to Houston and make the odds for Lebron going to Philly more enticing to attract more bettors to that scenario. In that case, nothing changed with Lebron - the only thing that changed was a response to the risk posed by having a lobsided betting pool that the casino would have to pay out.

    Remember, there is a reason these Casinos keep getting bigger and bigger, fancier and fancier - they are mostly good at what they do...and now one of those Casino owners owns our team.
     
    #48 glimmertwins, Jun 7, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2018
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  9. Coach E

    Coach E Member

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    Updated June 8th:

    Houston +150 (down from 140)
    LA Lakers +300 (up from 350)
    Philly +350 ( same)
     
  10. Bobsputin

    Bobsputin Member

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    Yep not about real odds. Betting line is about perceived odds. More of a poll of the betting population.

    Number of wagers x Line 1 = number of wagers x line 2.

    Balance it right and winners are paid with the losers money.
     
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  11. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member
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    Why don't the Rockets hire Griffin?

    If Griffin increases LeBron's arrival odds by 10%, Morey's analytics would say that the reasonable move is to fire Morey for that 10%.
     
  12. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Exactly right. Season hasn’t even ended yet (as I am writing this post)
    There will be much misdirection.....only to circle back to what I think will be Lakers.

    Deciding factor of all being the wife and his kids going to rich elite school of the celebrities.
     
  13. Coach E

    Coach E Member

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    Morey just needs to hire Griffin to some Cush spot
     
  14. rocketjunkie

    rocketjunkie Member

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    If he gets two other superstars then I get it. If he only goes over with one, then he’s not trying to win championships bc he won’t be able to beat rockets or warriors. I am worried about LA and BOS, mostly bc I don’t know how much we have to offer in a trade, unlike those two teams.
     
  15. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Yall are sleeping on Boston.
     
  16. Coach E

    Coach E Member

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    Why would he go to Boston?
     
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  17. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member
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    Thanks Captain Obvious. You can't have true odds for a one time event.
     
  18. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Boston?

    Cavs team payroll is at appprox 141.5 mil.
    https://en.hispanosnba.com/salaries/cleveland-cavaliers

    Boston team payroll is at approx $113.5 mil.
    https://en.hispanosnba.com/salaries/boston-celtics
    So SnT is almost dollar for dollar.

    LeBron approx $35.6

    Yabusele $2.7
    M Morris $5.3
    Tatum $6.7
    Jaylen Brown $5.2
    Rozier $3.1
    Semi $1.4 non-guaranteed
    Nadar $1.4 non-guaranteed
    Theis $1.4 non-guaranteed
    = approx $27.2 mil
    Cavs probably do this deal, to get young promising talent not like Ryan Anderson or Loul Deng. May not be enough....haven’t checked on trade checker. And that’s all the bodies.....unless they re-sign Smart for trade.
    But Boston might hesitate. Larkin, Monroe, Baynes and Marcus Smart are free agents. Smart w/ $6.1 mil QO.


    I can’t see Ainge trading the whole team for LeBron.....
    risk LeBron not having chemistry with Hayward/kyrie/Horford.
    And the optics of LeBron chasing Kyrie to Boston is very poor. Kyrie insisted on trade from LeBron.

    Boston with Hayward ($31.2 mil), Horford ($28.9 mil), Kyrie ($20.1 mil) and LeBron ($35.6 mil) = approx 115.8 mil.
    On 4 players. So which star would Ainge trade for LeBron? Guess Kyrie back to Cavs....lol.
    Hayward, Horford and Kyrie might have no trade clauses. Only they know.
     
    #58 ApacheWarrior, Jun 8, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2018
    xaos likes this.
  19. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Gonna copy and paste what I said in another thread.

    1. Shooters
    2. Great coach
    3. Great defense
    4. High IQ Players
    5. Possibly 2 other all stars
    6. Stays in what will be the weak east.

    Man I hate every part of this but ...it could happen.
     
  20. RHU525

    RHU525 Member
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    Just like when Wizards hired Scott Brooks cuz apparently Durant loves him. That worked out well.

    I do think Boston is a threat if they are willing to trade Kyrie back to Cleveland.
     
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