D’Antoni explains why he doesn’t like calling timeouts

Much easier to try to let your guys work through it when you have a core group together, most guys committed to defense and actually intelligent defenders and who can get hot like Curry and Klay do. Talent saves him.

Also, working through it is fine, but particularly with the way we run our offense, Harden’s tendency to get tired, make ill advised decisions late in the game and MDA’s reasoning is what makes it look bad.

 

He needs to call timeouts to remind his players about defensive assignments and offensive strategy

This isn’t for James Harden it’s for the other players

And yes someone mentioned regular season Vs playoffs

 

I find this logic stupid af

 

D'Antoni had a pretty good team w/ the Suns, couldn't get a championship.

Timeouts or not, his dialogue here should give you bad feelings. I'm really not looking forward to him coaching the team through the next playoffs... If he proves me wrong, fine. I'd love that.

 

@napalm06 i also have much experience with data analysis and agree eintirely with much of what you wrote .

And really liked your point about correlation vs causation and what you think mike and Morey refer to when they talk about statistical benefit from timeouts .

And you are right , everything can be measured .... it then it's up to the analyst in question to think if their analysis actually imparts some information or if there are other elements that effect the numbers turning out that way .

I think where MDA and Daryl's argument falls apart a bit is when you get to the playoffs and the game changes . Now , I don't know exactly how the game changes .... but it does. Effort goes up across the board , after a couple of games teams have almost complete information .... in the case of the rockets where as MDA puts in our primary option is "to put the ball in James hands" teams have 82 games of film on all of James moves etc ....

Our offense DOES start to have problems in the playoffs .... now maybe it's just that we are playing better teams . But , if I had to guess I'd say that even vs top defensive teams in the regular season we still have a better offensive rating than we do vs them in the playoffs .

I thought there were a few times during game 6 when MDA should have called a timeout . But other than that I didn't think his TO management was noticably bad during the series .

The main problem I have with MDA is how absolutley he dives into what the stats say is best . So James harden handling the ball is our best offensive strategy .... I get it . You want to be as efficient as you can all the time right ? Well , maybe if you care about setting regular season records .

MDA ran James into the ground his first year here

Second year we had CP3 and stayed healthy for he most part ... so MDA was able to relax just a tiny bit

This year we got off to a bad start and had to rely on James for an ungodly amount of offense . Maybe getting guys back at the end of the year helped him rest up .

My main issue is that yeah the stats say giving the ball to James and letting him go to work is the best strategy . But it's not so dominant that you can just spam it without regard for anything else . This is where it's really frustrating because the people saying "I could do that " are right .

To bring it back to the timeouts ... I think what mike is saying is absolutley true ... if you are just going to get the ball to James anyways ... calling a TO guarantees that the defense is 5 on 4 and is set and takes time off the clock . Bad move

BUT , that's the idea I disagree with in the first place . We've got to have more diversity in our offense . We've got to add some unpredictability . Because even if James is our best option ... when a good team knows EXACTLY what's coming then they can dictate what they want to give up .

I know you point to the LACK or evidence that MDA's limited TO's are "bad" for us . I would also say there is a lack of evidence MDA can adapt quickly and change up a game plan gone wrong .

For instance in game 6 it was clear we were willing to give up Iggy 3's . However , after he started getting a little hot , we still just left him wide open . Stats say that he is a certain percentage 3 point shooter . However , when you leave a 10+ year vet who is not a total non-shooter wide-open time and time again .... how do you not expect he's going to get in some kind of rythym ??

This example is defense not offense , but it is an example of needing to look beyond the surface when it comes to statistical analysis .

I'm not sure tracking data is good enough to give us a 3 point fg% for Iggy when he is given multiple wide open attempts for a whole game .... and if there is .., how big is the sample size really ?

To me , in baseball you can play the stats . In basketball the stats aren't good enough yet

 

Do you see any other teams use the stats like we do. Its the Bucks and Us and surprise surprise, guess whos going to give GS the most trouble.

 

Strange. Would be interested in seeing how the data proves this. Obviously if measured throughout all games in the regular season the stats will just revert to a mean to benefit the best team.

They should measure this vs runs against better overall teams and see how it stacks up.

Anyway, timeouts can help the team refocus and kill out the crowd. In the playoffs a timely timeout could be a diffrence maker, especially against a mercurial team like GSW in a loud oracle arena

 

Rudy Tomjavonovich in game management, trusting a Rookie Sam Cassell in the end of the game makes a clutch 3 in the NBA Finals, trusting a 2nd year player in Robert Horry making clutch 3s, get great blocks, Carl Herrera getting Bench points. Calling timeouts to break momentum, and regroup, for a new strategy.

James Harden lack of Self Discipline is a real problem, the way the Astros players are compared to Harden.
The Astros work hard in the cage, batting practice, fielding, stretching.

Stephen Curry is shooting 3s, 5 HOURS before the game. Where is Harden? At home.

Before the Warriors Game last year, Harden is dancing on the bench.

Durant, Curry, Thompson for 1 hour before the game starts putting up shots.

James Harden is a one man band, with fringe Basketball players.

The Astros are a 25 man TEAM, and more talent coming up.

Like a Pitching Coach visiting the Pitcher on the mound, (How many times has Brent Strom gave great advice to the Pitcher and the Pitcher stepped up).

Mike is an amateur Euroleague Coach who is going to fired within 3 years no doubt, with his constant 7 man rotation, when he signs this dumb contract extension.

 

Everyone uses stats now . Everyone knows that an open 3 is better than a long 2

I have no problem with amply using statistical analysis .

I do have a problem with using the numbers as a crutch for not trying something different because that stats say giving the ball to harden and getting out of the way is the best play .

Hell MDA went against the stats this year . CP3 did NOT have a good year shooting the midrange , yet we keep letting him do that . Why ?

I know the answer it's because it's "his shot" and he's had success with it in the past . So , in this case ... MDA took the data this year and put in into perspective and came to the conclusion that it's ok to let CP3 shoot that .

My problem is how can you take a nuanced look like that at something like CP3's shot selection and then apply the inverse logic of "well the stats tell us it's zero effect" when thinking about timeouts . Think about how much variation there is in a given timeout . Does every coach say exactly the same thing . Are all timeouts created equal ?

Generally , I agree that calling timeout in the closing section is not a great idea ... I'd rather attack while the defense is trying to set up . However , after we turn the ball over a couple of times in a row and have had the last 5-10 offensive possessions look rough ; you bet your ass I want a timeout .

Like I said before ... NBA data isn't good enough (at least what's public) especially for defense .

We can't tell if a team played good defense . We can look and see if the ball went in . We can see where the shot was from , how close defenders are * , and the point in the shot clock with which it was taken .

But good luck trying to form a regression with the data we currently have

*if you trust track data to begin with.

I just think that for as stats oriented as we are ... we should be able to admit there are some situations where statistical analysis isn't that helpful . Timeout determination over a broad spectrum is one of those cases . You wanna tell me the stats say not to call a timeout when you are down one possession and there are 15 seconds left ... I totally believe you .

But if the idea is that timeouts can't stop runs. What's the intuition there ? In-game coaching doesn't matter ?

Actually Morey has said this before (that coaching doesn't matter that much) I wonder if he still believes it

 

When the best player in James Harden, Does not have a Killer Instinct like Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan.

It honestly is pointless to Motivate him, because James easily tunes you out, later the player hates coach, and he gets fired.

James Harden is a better Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Dominique Wilkins, THIS IS HIS LEVEL.

Win One Championship, Julius Erving, Clyde Drexler IS THE NEXT LEVEL.

 

Do you really think Daryl and Mike use those stats without any context??? Do you really believe that? Those time out dont mean jack, Mike called a ton in our series agaisnt GS and it didnt do anything. They were not a factor in why we lost. All this time out non sense is not worth discussing. . Like...I dont understand how you can say they didnt do their homework on this when we have Daryl Freaking Morey.

Like Timeouts were the difference between us and a championship, cmon now.

 

Yeah............ Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green.

How many times has Greg Popovich beaten Steve Kerr in the playoffs?

Does that mean that Steve Kerr is a better coach that Popovich?

Ty Lue is the only coach that has even beat Steve Kerr in a playoff series, does that make Ty Lue better than Popovich and as good as Kerr?

Mike D'Antoni has warts.......... but outside of Popovich, so does every other coach.

Guess what? If MDA coached the Warriors, he would have 4-5 rings right now.


I've heard it all.......... from the Rockets don't run set plays....... (this isn't the 1970's with Bobby Knight)......... to MDA doesn't call effective plays out of timeouts (statistically this isn't true)......... to MDA is responsible for the defensive failure (he isn't responsible for the success or failure), to the offense is why the Rockets didn't win a title (statistically not true)........... to MDA doesn't call enough timeouts......... really? Timeouts? A timeout is useful if your team is more tired than the other team. However this idea that MDA can some how impart wisdom on Harden/Paul/Tucker is really a dated idea. Those guys know what they are doing and what is going on.

 

Dantoni, you don't need to say anything if you have nothing to say. Look at many of Lebrons teams timeouts, many times the coach is off to the side while Lebron is talking in a huddle. A timeout can simply be called to give your team an opportunity to huddle up, talk to one another in a confined space, point things out they are noticing, & proceed to catch their breath & re-group. It is actually a necessity. If things aren't going as planned and guys are missing spots or their rhythm is just simply off, between players it's easier to talk in a huddle rather than screaming at one another while you're running up and down the court. If shots aren't falling, call a time out just to let your players motivate each other, so your players can tell one another they still have confidence in them and lets go sink some buckets... that is if you as a coach have nothing to say.

 

Don't forget the warriors themselves, they won the award for best analytics organization a few years back. They lean on the analytics more heavily than almost any other team.

 

Cmon man read the whole post

Or maybe I need to be more clear . I don't have a problem IN GENERAL with not calling timeouts . However there were a few specific situations in game 6 where I think mike should have called one .

I know Morey does his HW . I'm saying that there is no way you can "do your hw " on timeout effectiveness . You can measure an average effect . But , there are too many variables to control for .

There is no way Morey has access to audio to every single timeout called and can tell what coaches said or what specific tweaks they made . Think of all the timeouts called during the regular season in the NBA . Good teams vs good teams , bad teams vs good teams etc . 1st Q , 2nd Q etc .... down 5 , up 10 , the list goes on .

You can't equivocate the effect of an "average" nba timeout to a timeout that is called in an elimination game can two great teams .

This is my whole problem . Stats can provide an average effect .... and if you have great data , you can control and maybe take a look at specific situations . Where I feel MDA goes wrong .... is in using that guideline not as a guideline ... but as a rule

 

If MDA has to "remind" his players about defensive assignments and offensive strategies, then we are already completely screwed.

 

I read it. I understand. But there were no instances in game 6 where the TO could be called and it could really turn the tides. Mike was def callin these TOs you are talking about all series, and it made almost no differnece.

Fine, but then you look at our Mike Dantoni era and do you think, hey man I really wish Mike woulda called a timeout here, it really kept us from winning a chip? No, it has not. They were not a factor. This is just you not liking Mike and your perception of him not making adjustments, which is fine, but the TO stuff is really not worth it imo.

Thats fine and I get that, but we havent seen a situation in our Morey/Dantoni era where timeouts were a factor at all. They do not matter when compared to other things.

Well timeouts were not the difference in this series and you know that. And yea you are right about your last line here, but Id say our organization(from gm to coach) has done extremely well with the data we have.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/03/sports/rockets-coaches-nba-playoffs.html

DEVAN BLAIR, offensive strategy/video coordinator

D’Antoni has a database of nearly 100 plays based on six sets that he can run out of timeouts. They are known as “ATOs,” for “after timeouts.” For years, D’Antoni would more or less pick one on the fly and hope for the best.

But over breakfast one day this season, D’Antoni had the idea to have his staff select a few before the game even starts.

The bulk of that process is in the hands of Blair, who gives Gunning a list of 25 to 30 ATOs based on the opponent. In a pregame meeting, Gunning will discuss them with Blair and D’Antoni before they settle on 15 — a menu for the night ahead.

D’Antoni and Gunning tuck printed copies in their coat pockets. Blair keeps his on an iPad. He sits directly behind Gunning so they can communicate. During the regular season, Blair said, the Rockets ran successful ATOs more than 70 percent of the time, meaning they were able to get the type of look they wanted, even if they did not necessarily score.

Blair, the youngest member of the bench staff, will offer occasional reminders to players during timeouts. But he was chastened earlier this season when he gave the first-year forward Gary Clark a bad bit of instruction that led to a snafu.
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They either lying or they got hacked

...the home team prob digs into MDA's trashcan for the plays to bust.

​

 

When Steve Kerr doesn’t like the way a run is going he calls timeouts. He makes a substitution or a strategic change. He wants to take control of the situation and emphasize whatever it is he’s seeing that is allowing the opponent to make a run.

I’ve joked about how anyone could coach GS to a championship, even Luke Walton. But Kerr really is good at picking his spots to call timeouts and get his team to regroup and focus. I’ve seen MDA do it to. So I’m not sure why he’s acting like he doesn’t.

Doesn’t everyone remember how pissed he was against Utah during one of their runs? He called timeout and starting chewing on the players like a good head coach should.

I’m not buying this. I honestly don’t understand why he would even say something it.

 

Agree to disagree regarding game 6

I might go back to the tape (when rewatching is less painful) to find the exact spots I'm talking about .

Like we had multiple opportunities to build a big lead but then our offense would sputter for too many consecutive possessions , GS would eventually score in transition because we couldn't get anything to go and they got right back in the game .

These weren't offensive possessions where we were generating a good look and just missing . CP3 or some other player would just make a stupid mistake .

Like sure our defense was playing great and I know you don't want to allow GS to draw up a play . But take a chance man ! Draw up a play to get us going . Tell the guys to settle the **** down .

Like I said earlier . My main problem with MDA isn't specifically to's (outside of game 6 where I think he badly ****ed up) . It's his conservative , play the stats / long-run volume approach . He's shown no ability to change it up when we are in a rut