We have likely erred to the side of extreme caution, which is good because we had no clue what was going on. However, I don't think we will need this level of caution and total shutdown going forward. Also, I thought this was a fair point to consider and it follows along the German thinking that I saw as a comment from someone
Any US state close to mexico will have a strong immunity. Authentic spicy Mexican food is the antidote. India also has some spicy ingredients in their food that is anti inflammatory.
He wasn't really an ICU patient, just famous enough to demand it. When I heard he wasn't intubated I knew he was going to do fine.
When to end a shut down is going to be really tricky, and will have to depend on how much the curve has flattened for each individual city's medical system to handle. Singapore tried going without a lockdown and even closed international borders late - land border with Malaysia where 300,000 cross everyday for work only closed mid March because of Malaysias lockdown. Contact tracing worked for almost 3 months but the number of untraced cases has been on a steady increase, prompting a shutdown this week.
Very encouraging and his point about the virus becoming less lethal mirrors what I've read about sars - the virus seemed to evolve into something less lethal and eventual obscurity before a vaccine was ready.
Yup international travel is very tricky at this point in time. We don't have the testing capability to handle it yet. For the US interstate travel is almost like international travel for many other countries to a degree. Ideally we will have much better tests within 2 months and we can get back to semi normal gathering sizes.
it’s called a counterfactual scenario And there is logic and data science that points to it being ok . Granted , there are a lot of problems with the data all these models are using in the first place . Large omitted variable problem , different populations . it’s all guesswork . But , how few would have to die in order for people against lockdown to say that erring on the side of caution is wrong ? the 60k deaths is optimistic IMO . if just NYK stays between 2k and 1k dead per day for another 10-15 days then that’s gonna be cumulatively like 50k dead in nyk alone . the peak is important , also important is how quickly the deaths decline . In China the peak didn’t level off that quickly , neither did it in Italy iirc . I think people are sick of negativity . But caution is still needed . It’s looking like MAYBE New York is at peak and starting to decline , but now other hotspots are popping up . until there is a vaccine or widespread mask usage and testing , places will have to remain in at least a pseudo lockdown state . It’s looking like if enough things break in our favor this could be manageable by late summer into the fall . that’s probably a fair timeline . But , we still don’t know how bad things will be . You would think now that our attention has been turned to producing the things we need and experience from earlier states that we could quell things that pop up now and in May more efficiently. Let’s hope so I think it’s 50/50 at this point . will we get a count including deaths at home ? Will we find out how many were corona ? We don’t have good testing numbers . Can we trust info coming out of China ? We have to compare every country’s results to how they tested . Statistically this thing is a nightmare haha . furthermore those unknown variables have huge endogenous effects
At no point have 1k-2k been dying per day in NY based on the numbers. Today 799 died. That was a 2.6% increase over yesterday. The New York + New Jersey numbers actually showed a day to day decline of 5.3%. 1051 died yesterday in NY + NJ and 995 today. For me I think the 4 day rolling averages still need to top out before we can call a peak in deaths per day. They are flattening but still high.
Well, just to be clear, he said "they" haven't done the research on the COVID virus changes, but that based on other viruses (including SARS OG, like you said), that maybe we can assume this one will become less potent. Or that's my understanding of that part of the interview. I hope that's correct!
If you can truly isolate a community and keep the infected rate below ICU capacity, what the German doctor said is true. The Gangelt community he studied has a population of 12.4K and a population density that is 1/6th of Houston. I imagine his results would not apply to most cities.
you’re right , my bad. I mistook the nyk number for the national number . I’ve been trying the “ignorance is bliss” approach for the last 4-5 days . New York had 800 today I think . That’s way better than I thought .
only thing that's ever worked for me as far as sore throats and for coughs... black bitter buckwheat tea from sichuan, or dark honey
There is anecdotal evidence (family doctor in Houston eons of years ago) that germs will stay in your throat by about 4 days before entering the body's other systems. The objective here is to decrease as much as possible the viral load, and let the immune system do the rest.
A new strategy you might wanna try regarding face-touching is using an object -- in my case: a back scratcher (nah, really it's a big plastic spoon) -- to scratch your face instead of using your hands. As long as the object is sterile (along with your face) you can touch whatever you want and still scratch/touch your face without any threat. Just grab the handle and use the other end to touch. So far, this strategy has been great. I'd been spraying alcohol on my hands before touching damn near everytime for weeks.
The aunt of one of my employees based in NJ died from it. Also, one of my employees who is now in Cyprus has it (mild to moderate symptoms).
