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Correlation between rookie minutes and long term development

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Nov 13, 2012.

  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    After the first few games, the prevailing sentiment in GARM has been that playing rookies allow them to develop their game.

    But is that even true? Sure, the obvious example people point to are things like "Durant, Kobe, Lebron, etc. played as rookies and they be superstars, duh!" And certainly, the Rockets do play their high lottery picks early and often. Yao, Griffin, Francis, all saw major minutes in their rookie years. If you have the talent and the polish coming into the league, coaches will play you. But what about those that may or may not be ready yet? So let's take a look at some high picks by the Rockets over the past decade. Do note that we lost a lot of our picks through trades.

    Group 1: Played from the beginning

    Luther Head - Played from the beginning. Was a 3 point shooter who can't do anything else in his rookie year. Got a little better at shooting his 2nd year, and then regressed to become a marginal player the rest of his career

    Steve Novak
    - Played from the beginning, although in and out of the rotation. Was a 3pt specialist to begin his career. Continued to be that for his entire career. Did not improve on rebounding, passing, or much of anything else. Did become a more volumous 3pt shooter with the Knicks 6 years into his career.

    Chase Budinger - Played from the beginning due to lack of depth at the wing. For the past 3 years had been almost the exact same player. If you go look at his per-36 stats on basketball-reference, you'd see how eerily similar his stats are for all 3 seasons. This includes both Adelman and McHale regimes.

    Chandler Parsons - Played from the beginning due to McHale's love of his defense. Despite improving over his rookie year, he's starting this year at roughly the same level he played last year. Small sample size though. Still, there's obviously no leaps and bounds seen in any improvement in his game. This goes for both stats and watching him play.

    Group 2: Simmered on the bench for a while

    Carl Landry - Sat for half a season behind Scola/Hayes. Then became an energy finisher for the 2nd half of rookie season. Developed his game in each off-season. And has become a very good player

    Aaron Brooks - Sat for half a season before becoming Rafer's backup. Played well enough that Morey traded Rafer in Brooks' 2nd season. Continued his development into a shooting-PG before injuries and China derailed his career temporarily.

    Joey Dorsey/Jermaine Taylor - Didn't get playing time as rookies. Still not worth it now

    Patrick Patterson - Sat for half a season. Played like a average role player his rookie season. 2nd year marred by injuries. This season has been erratic.

    Marcus Morris - Sat for an entire year. Playing quite well on a per-minute basis this year. Showing all the skills of his draft report despite spending last year pouting at being sent to the Vipers

    Honestly, looking at past history, I don't get the fuss over lack of playing time for DMo/Jones/White. Sitting a few games to start the season really doesn't seem like a big deal. Because history seems to suggest that if you're good enough to succeed, you'll succeed.
     
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