All I've been hearing on the radio lately is that we're going to be lucky to even be a playoff team this upcoming season. But really, I don't understand why so many people are writing us off? I admit I'm not statistician, but I put together some PPG predictions.. which I feel are actually pretty conservative. Brooks - 16 ppg Martin - 16 ppg Ariza - 13 ppg Scola - 15 ppg Yao - 14 ppg Starting 5 PPG = 74 Lowry - 8 ppg Bud - 10 ppg JT - 6 ppg Battier - 6 ppg Patterson - 6 ppg Hill - 6 ppg Hayes - 4 ppg Miller - 8 ppg Jeffries - 4 ppg Bench PPG = 58 Total PPG = 132 Averaging 132 PPG is unrealistic is it not? I guess my point is that our team seems balanced enough this year to get deep into the playoffs without a "superstar" (Yao Ming?). What are your thoughts? Did I give any player more credit than they deserve? I tried to take into consideration the touches Yao would be taking away. I also understand these PPG predictions are very very dumbed down since I'm only looking at one stat.
This is stupid... even if those numbers for each player seem realistic to you.. you don't just add them up to get how many ppg the team averages because not every player will play every game... get what I'm saying???? Hypothetically speaking.. let's say Pat plays only 2 games this whole season but scored 18 and 22 points.. his average would be 20ppg. You wouldn't put 20 ppg for his part to get the team average or it would be way off!!! This thread is stupid.. 130+ppg for any team is stupid...even Miami with their trio won't average that!
Most games you're only going to play 10 or 11 players. So, take 70% of 132 (or 10.5/15), and you get 92.4. That sounds about right for a very conservative prediction.
Yup. Toss out Jeffries, Hayes, Patterson or Hill and JT and you've got a more reasonable number of 112 PPG. Still seems high, though.
With a 132 ppg...I think I'm going to start printing 2011 Rockets Championship gear right now and start selling em on the web.. anyone interested??? Ohh and this is conservative.. so on hot nights we'll be flirting with 200???? AWESOME can't wait for the season to start!!!
your theory is very flawed... 1) we wont play 14 players/night...you can only play 12 2) Adelman will not have a 12 man rotation...maybe a 9 or 10 man rotation at the most 3) Even if all 12 players play... the likelihood of all 12 players scoring is not very likely. If we're predicting PPG for the TEAM... my guess would be that they will be in between 98-105/game. They averaged 102 last year with a quicker pace. Add Yao..the pace will slow down some.
thread fail. Obviously I did not think this one through enough. But hey, at least our defense will be better.
If you play only half the team one night, then sit them the next, and play the other half, everybody's PPG wins!
