When the Rockets amassed their very good record by winning a bunch of close games (going 9-0 in games decided by 5 points or less) and having a relatively low average net scoring margin while playing a below-average strength of schedule, some of us believe that this is a sign that the Rockets are not as good as their W-L record-- in fact, not as good as the team's performance last regular season, given the average scoring margin that team generated. We expressed concerns about the team's offense being ranked below average, and not generating as many paint points and free throws while still suffering from high turnovers. Some other people here disagreed. They say that, no, the team is winning close games not by being lucky, but by having "heart" and "clutchness" and "veteran leadership" and by "playing defense." Well, now the Rockets have lost the last 2 games, by 4 points and by 1 point. They competed hard at the end of games, but fell short. Did the Rockets lose all these favorable characteristics that people ascribe to them, or is it just a matter of luck? Keep getting into close games and you are bound to lose some, right? The team is what their scoring margin say they are-- a very good team but not elite and not a contender, a team that's expected to get a middle seed and get into a bunch of coin flip (at best) games in the playoffs-- Similar to what they were last season and maybe worse. Nothing special about this scoring margin being generated via excellent defense and ordinary offense as oppose to excellent offense and ordinary defense.
"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Carl Herrera again." It has been like this for years because you are generally the only poster I try to give reputation to.
They have chemistry issues now and guys that contributed to winning those games are now not playing....Canaan, Pappa. DD
With an MVP, a top center, a very good PF, a young budding Euro skilled big and a couple of long wings, you gotta make it work more than just coin flips. Talent wise, I think we have upgraded over last year's squad.
Harden has played like the MVP. The "top center" hasn't played like a top center since coming back from injury. The "very good PF" was "very good" in 1 out of 3 games, and "rather ****ty" in the other 2. We'll have to see how things develop. Hopefully these guys get back to the level we hope they can play at. Until then, any opinion as to the "talent level" of this team would seem to be just speculative.
I think we're definitely a better team than last season but it will take time for them to gel and and for the coaching staff to find solutions to new problems. I expect us to be very inconsistent for a while, and then have an excellent final month of regular season as we're coming together in time for a playoff run. I think our biggest problem is offense right now. We have very good defensive players and a coaching staff capable of implementing a good defense. We don't have the offensive punch we did last season. In that sense, I agree with Carl Herrera that we are at this moment not a better team than last season based on offense/defense. However, I think this team, even if left alone, can make great strides as the season goes on. I think Smith will improve, just based on how lost he's looked without sufficient practice time. T Jones is going to compete with D-Mo for a spot in the rotation. K-Pap will improve. Ariza will play fewer minutes, so hopefully we'll see his efficiency improve. Either Canaan or Shved will give us back that depth at PG. I see this team going up. It's going to be tough, especially with J Smith's character fitting into the team and McHale's inability to get this team to use its offensive freedom by being creative rather than resorting to ISO's and post ups. But if we're as good right now as we were last season? That's promising to me, because this team is going to improve drastically just by getting to know each other.
Thank you Carl. A good post finally. IMO, considering all the changes, taking the Spurs on the road and Wizards on a b2b to the last second is a good sign.
The Rockets' scoring margin was off the charts when they had Terrance Jones. It was a small sample size, but he was showing huge improvement and he seemed to have nice synergy with Dwight. Getting him back will fix a lot of issues. D-Mo would be the full-time backup C so when he's in, he can get more touches. This would also eliminate the need to play Dorsey.
I'd MUCH rather prefer this team that is great defensively and mediocre offensively than vice versa (i.e. our team last year). Playing good defense significantly raises the floor of your team. Our offense isn't efficient but we are more than capable of bombing threes in any given game, and also we have the MVP of the league. Not to mention Jones will come back and the team needs to regain its lost chemistry. THE END IS NOT NEAR PEOPLE
We need to sign Kenny Smith to just show our guards how to feed the post…Kenny made a living out of doing it. Everyone keeps hammering Dwight's play, but how discouraging do you think it is to run down the court, seal off your man, get good post position then watch as your guards stand out on the perimeter looking clueless? Harden is a beast…he would be even more unstoppable if he had some off the ball plays run for him to get open, instead of having to do it all himself. Ariza is what he is…& has his moments. Bev plays great D, gives good heart & Hustle…can hit the open 3, but his play making is atrocious. Josh Smith will mesh pretty well once the team figures out how to best use him…hint, hint: Pick'n'roll, pick'n'roll, back door cut, pick'n'roll… But that being said, we still haven't figured out how to use Dwight properly yet…so don't hold your breath. D-Mo was beasting in the post, playing awesome D, hitting his corner 3's…so now we don't post him up anymore, only let him shoot corner 3's with 2 seconds on the clock & have him wandering around the perimeter on the wings. Great coaching…should give the coach an extension for that stroke of genius. oh, we already did… Brewer has been awesome…'nuff said. Dorsey is trash…yes he's played ok the last few games, but he is a 12th man at best. Papa, Canaan & Nicky J were all contributing…but are now nowhere to be seen. Papa & D-Mo actually work well together, & he is probably the best at feeding the post, but what can you do? I know injuries had a part to play with Canaan & Papa's minutes…but at least play the guys. Shved will do alright once he adjusts to playing on this team. I think he will have a solid career…but I don't expect much this year. Capela I really like…he has all the physical tools to be something special...but I don't expect much this year. Do we have what it takes to win the Championship this year? Yes all the pieces are there, it's just a matter of putting the puzzle together and making sure all of the pieces fit. unfortunately, while McHale is a good motivator and a Hall of Fame player, this puzzle is in the advanced range, and it seems that he can only put together the ones marked 'for ages 3 and up.' Go Rockets, I love this team, read my sig…end rant.
The talent level is not speculative. Talent is talent, there is nothing speculative about it. Can they fit together? I think that's the question. If these guys can find a way to complement each other and make each other better, I think we can beat anybody. With Smith, I think we have a chance to beat the Clippers.
Maybe about the same as how discouraging it is to see 3 consecutive P'n'R run by Dwight result in 6 points then..... none for a very very long time.
Small sample size magnifies teams that have had injuries early. Just as I suspect OKC is better than their 1.9 scoring margin, I think the Rockets are better than their 3.9 scoring margin indicates.
Great post, and I really think the schedule has contributed to these losses. Trying to introduce a new cornerstone player into a scheme is tough enough, but when you're playing Memphis, San Antonio, and Washington without any practice time, it's practically impossible. Combine that with subpar shooting from our normally effective PG, and these close losses aren't a surprise. Of course, all that being said, you're still going to have people ready to blow it up and start over.
