Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BimaThug, Nov 1, 2010.
Well written article, but a horrid move for the Rockets as a franchise.
Bud is playing so well I would hate to give him up for a rental.
I think giving up BOTH Hill and Budinger AND the 2011 pick is a bit too much.
Trading one of them is a better package, but both seems too much of a talent loss. Not to mention, I'm skeptical of our chances this year. If we trade away the two most potential players in our roster for a one year rental, failure to win a championship will set us back severely for the next few years.
Budinger and Hill are great trade pieces, yet they have so much potential as well. We should not lose them for a one year rental.
Good thoughts there, BimaThug. Personally, I wouldn't risk it without some assurances from the Melo camp that he'll stick around. Obviously, he doesn't seem like the sort of person who'd stick around out of loyalty.
Like the Rudy Gay trade, we will be kicking ourselves for years to come -- and the players we trade will be kicking us for years to come as well.
I have always liked the idea of renting Melo for the short term because of such a small and uncertain window with Yao so count me on board EXCEPT for the Budinger part. I'd move him for Melo with an extension in place but without one, NO WAY. I know it sounds nuts but Bud is the deal breaker, I am a firm believer that Melo wants to go to NY one way or the other so giving up that much for him would be almost like bidding against yourself.
Hill, Battier, Jeffries and #1 is where I draw the line on a NO extension Melo.
If you could get him for something like:
Jeffries, Battier, and a pick or two, then you do the deal, but no reason to give up a young talented piece for a 3 month rental.
sounds risky, after giving up landry, i was letting cbud go
I've been thinking about this for a while now. I've also been wondering if Melo is playing this out this way to get to Houston and still leave us with enough assets to go after Paul later. What if........he is bluffing and telling everyone he won't sign an extension here just to drive his trade value down? Then after he is traded here, he re-ups because he knows Paul is leaving N.O. and they can forumlate their own dominant big 3 or big 4 with Yao and Martin?
The whole thing with Melo is ultimately, if he wants to play in the Finals against the Heat, then he has to stay in the West. So, the next thing is, which team can build a big 3 or big 4 to compete with Miami and give him a viable market to make money from in the West? That boils down to the Lakers and us. Unless he really thinks the Clippers are going to actually build something with Griffin.
We can offer Denver the most of what they want, young talent, expirings, and a pick. I said A PICK. Not both Knick picks. There is no way we should give up both Knick picks for a guy that won't sign an extension. And I don't think Morey will do it anyways, even if Melo was willing to sign an extension here. Morey always leaves the gate open so he can turn another deal. He will either trade for another future potential high lottery pick or he will keep one of the Knick picks.
If we rent Melo, and he doesn't sign an extension with us, we need to retain at least one of the Knick picks.
One thing I NEVER hear anyone touch on, is that Melo has to opt out, he may decide NOT to opt out, and play one more year at his max salary.
There is no guarantee with the new CBA that being a free agent will allow him to make more money......he may stay put for one more year.
I would see it as a consolidation of smaller assets into one large asset.
We need to trim the roster down. Trading Brooks (Lowry is getting paid starter money and Ish looks like he can be a legit backup PG), Battier (expiring salary to match, could be back with team a few months after the trade), Jeffries (expiring salary to match), Hill (big with upside), Budinger (SF with upside... you gotta give up quality to get quality), a 2011 first and the 2012 NY first + cash should get it done.
The only problem I forsee doing this deal is getting Brooks in there. We would probably need a 3rd team to come along and scoop him up giving Denver an extra 1st rounder (They have Billups and Lawson).
Post trade our rotation would be:
PF: Scola, Hayes, Patterson
C: Yao, Dampier, Miller
We cull the herd a bit and Melo gets to do a test run with us. If he still wants NY, we get a massive trade exception.
Also, moving Lowry into the starter position improves our defense dramatically.
Actually that's an interesting theory. I do think his interest in playing in the New York area (first) is genuine though.
For whatever reason, the Rockets felt they didn't have a chance (or it was very, very slim) in the offseason, either stopped by Carmelo or the Nuggets. But they felt if Carmelo stayed in Denver and they got closer to the deadline, they would have a better than average shot at it.
Nice job on the post, Bima.
That is definitely a possibility since Paul has an opt out after next season. Then they could both be free agents together and pull another caper like Lebron/Bosh/Wade. However, the disadvantage is with the new CBA, they are going to have far less money to work with in the new CBA for their max salaries and the salaries of the parts around them.
Things I am convinced of:
1. Melo wants to play with Paul and another superstar (Amare?) to have a big 3 to compete with Miami for market and championships.
2. In the final analysis, Denver is going to trade for the best combination of assets to re-build their team.
3. Melo forming a big 3 in the West makes more sense than in the East for him and everybody involved.
4. After the new CBA goes down, it is going to be tough to form a big 3 and have a substantial bench to compete with a team like Miami that already has their big 3 and can simply add the ancillary parts. So, the incentive on Melo's part is to get something done this season. Him and his team are doing their best to figure out how to get traded to a team that can either outright sign Paul after next season or that has enough assets to trade for Paul after next season.
Keep Budinger; I don't feel too comfortable having Lee at the back-up 3 position.
Very intresting, IMO to good to be true. But I do like it, for the right price only.
Thanks for the feedback, everyone.
The point of the article was not really to judge the particular hypothetical trade package I threw out there (Bud/Hill/Battier/Jeffries/2011 pick), but instead was supposed to get you thinking about the value of the COMBINATION of (a) having Carmelo Anthony (one of the top 5 offensive players in the NBA today) for a playoff run this season AND (b) either (i) a substantially better chance of signing Melo long-term once he's actually on this team or (ii) the assets the Rockets could possibly acquire in a sign-and-trade deal next summer (i.e., one or two future first rounders and a huge trade exception).
So, while I never claimed to be in favor of the hypothetical deal I threw out, people need to view it really as follows:
Chase Budinger (who's minutes would decrease with Melo anyway but who'd be a big loss if Melo leaves)
Jordan Hill (big man with potential but who the front office doesn't really like as much as Patterson long-term)
Shane Battier (team leader but someone who'd play less with Melo in the fold)
Jared Jeffries (nice defender but really just salary filler here)
2011 pick (potential lottery pick, if either Rockets/Knicks don't do well this year)
for (likely) EITHER
A: Carmelo Anthony, who eventually signs a long-term deal with Houston
B: Carmelo Anthony (half-season/playoff rental)
One or more future first round picks
Huge trade exception
Personally, like most of you, I'd HATE losing Budinger in such a deal, but what is Denver's incentive to trade with Houston otherwise, especially when they could still get multiple picks and a trade exception if they do NOTHING? Honestly, Jordan Hill is not exactly the hottest commodity around the league right now. You've got to give up something to get something.
Again, not sure I'd do that deal (or another variation of it). But you have to admit that it's worth thinking about.
Another possibility that I see is Denver being so disgusted with Melo manipulating them, that they trade him and KMart to some place like Philly for Iggy, Brand, and Philly's draft pick. Denver would be automatically rebuilt and ready to compete for another couple seasons. Brand is healthy. That would give them Billups, Iggy, Brand, Nene, plus Philly's lottery pick to add to their core next season. Philly gets to dump salary and complete their start over. And they can then offer Melo an extension if Melo likes it there playing with Evan Turner or they can S&T him in the offseason. And Denver gets the pleasure of knowing Melo has to waste an offseason not going to the playoffs.
How else can Philly get out from under Brand's contract? Denver would have to bite on the Brand contract. That would be the kicker for them. But Iggy plus Philly's lottery pick. Don't know if they could do better. By the way, Brand is looking much improved this season. He's a career 20/10 guy with good defense and shot blocking. He probably won't average that for the balance of his career, but if healthy, he's a load. I can see him averaging 16/9 easily, which is still a drastic improvement over Kenyon.
You could mix match the Philly deal any way you want. But I would bet that Philly would be happy to give up a lottery pick next season to be able to dump Brand right now.
the possibility of no extension signed prior to being traded here is giving me horrific flashbacks of this:
Even with the hindsight of knowing how good our prospects turned out (multiple All-Stars), I'd STILL do that trade 10 times out of 10.
Randy Johnson made that team the best Astros team in history.
Too bad their bats couldn't hit Kevin Brown.
Wasn't Randy's fault we didn't win the World Series that year.