[ClutchFans] Podcast: Rockets red hot, but power forward position still a big question mark

I dont think it takes a brain surgeon at this point to figure out that Casspi has EARNED rotation minutes along with Asik/Howard/Parsons at the 4 spot, and D-Mo/Jones will probably be picking up scrap minutes when this unit is healthy.

HOWEVER... this is not the last we will see of any of these guys (Smith included). Injuries will surely happen during the season, and trades are a possibility. I like that as 2nd year players, there is no pressure on them to perform right out of the gate, and they can continue to work on their weaknesses without impacting the Rockets win/losses.

They have some more time to continue their development, and sooner rather than later, they will have a shot to contribute heavy minutes. Just cause Casspi has kicked a#$ this preseason and earned a spot in the rotation, doesn't mean that it's any indication of whose going to be playing in February.

Keep in mind that Jones and D-Mo have at least two more years on their rookie deals. There is no reason to etch their names on a tombstone in Morey's graveyard at this point.

 

Pretty sure these guys are in no danger of being dumped just because they are not in the rotation. There are 15 guys on the roster and typically only 8 or 9 get to play. So every team has more than a few non-rotation guys they keep around.

Not sure what would be the point of dumping Jones, Motiejunas or Smith. If you are trading them, then the point would be to get back something useful and not just to get rid of one of them. It's not like there are some great street free agent running around anyway just waiting for us to clear a roster spot.

 

The point of dumping at least a couple of these guys is to get something back for them that will have value. Once they ride the pine going into the regular season their value continues to sink. We need to trade at least 2 of them for an expiring contract and draft pick or possible all 3 guys for a pick(s) and a useful player. Myself, I am still advocating moving all 3 guys to Philly or spread them around the NBA to the highest bidder and bring in Derrick Williams while Philly gets value for sending Evan Turner or Thad Young to Minny. Derrick Williams is the much better fit here alongside Dwight and Asik. He would thrive and get rotation minutes and his value would increase. You let him and Casspi split minutes as stretch 4's with Garcia splitting time with Parsons and you simply go with the hot hands and best defensive match ups when we spread it out.

Then wait for Dec 15 and the trade deadline to roll around and see what unfolds.

 

Is Derrick Williams any better than Casspi? Is he better than Motiejunas, Jones or Smith?

Do Motiejunas, Smith and Jones even have much trade value now?

Of course you trade a guy if you get something good in return. But for what you are likely to be offered at this point (2nd round pick, if that), might as well keep them around and see if their value go up if they get a chance to play due to injuries or what not.

 

Exactly. I posted in the game thread that the only reason why these guys CURRENTLY aren't in the October rotation is because of POSITIVE surprises. Its like when people were bashing Budinger when Parsons beat him out in training camp.

The fact is the Rockets have plenty of time to develop these guys further to both strengthen the team for the future, and add depth in case of injury. Its not like 2 years ago when Morey had to dump guys before their trade value ran out. Now he can actually develop players the right way instead of constantly horse trading assets.

I'm getting really sick of the negativity surrounding these guys, and the internet awards people think they are winning when one player they root for wins minutes over another guy. Not sure why its so hard to focus on the positives for once.

 

Haven't seen much of DWill 2.0.
Last time I saw him he was inconsistent as well but I think he will be playing more minutes because he got the trust of the coaching staff.

 

We tried to trade Jones for a 1st rounder already at last year's deadline with no takers. By this point, I doubt we would get much more than a couple of 2nd rounders at best for these guys.

Frankly, their value as injury insurance is probably worth more than just dumping them for scraps.

Also, I think we agree that these guys are just not very good right now, but is there a chance they still get better? I think for sure they will get better, the question is by how much? Will they ever get good enough to break into the rotation? I don't see it, but is there a 1% chance? I mean, there's a 1% chance that Harden actually IS Moses, so anything is possible.

Heck, might even be a 10% or 20% chance, I don't see it but who knows. They are close to worthless at this point anyways, so might as well freeroll. If they happen to ever turn into anything it would just be a bonus.

 

They have limited trade value....as does Derrick Williams....as does Evan Turner. DMo and TJones are a year behind Williams and Turner so they have an extra year to be toyed with while Derrick Williams and Evan Turner are a year ahead and their teams facing more drastic realities of losing them for nothing. On the other hand Philly wants to dump salary. I'm sure they would be interested in deals involving Thad Young that involved them getting back less salary, youngsters, and a draft pick or two.

Minny, on the other hand, has botched Derrick Williams' development...moving him back and forth between the 3 and 4 and Adelman gluing him to the bench after every defensive mistake. He's not going to work out there. They know it. They're just trying to figure out how to get value back for the former #2 pick in the draft. Is he significantly better than Casspi???? I don't know. Casspi has been surprisingly good. However I do think Williams has a few more offensive tools than Casspi does. I think he's a slightly better finisher. I think he's better at drawing contact and getting on the foul line. And I suspect he'd be a bit better defending 4s than Casspi. But acquring Williams wouldn't necessarily be about getting a better player than Casspi. It would be more about getting value for our youngsters who are going to rot on the bench here. It would be about the opportunity to catch fire in a bottle. We know what we got with DMo/Jones/Smith. We don't know what Williams will become here. He could become special and make us forget about Paul Millsap, Aldridge, etc. Or he could become slightly better with more minutes and shots and be a trade candidate to add to Asik and/or Lin. When you think about acquiring LaMarcus or Bosh or Melo or even Love a year from now...if we get Derrick Williams to play effectively as a stretch 4 than his contract and trade value along with Asik and/or Lin will represent more value than a couple bench warming youngsters who are viewed largely as unknowns and busts if they ride the pine out this year.

 

I agree. We're gonna have a tough time getting a first rounder out of these guys..even if they are packaged together..especially with a deep 2014 draft staring us in the face...especially with these guys medioce training camp performances. That's why I'm looking for a way to move all 3 guys out and get something solid in return. Think what you want about Derrick Williams. He may never be a superstar. But he's a fit here. He has the 3-ball. He has the drive. He disdains the midrange shot. And he knows how to create contact and get on the line. He's a fit here. We can help recover his career and his asset value. And we can either keep him long-term or flip him after we increase his value by letting him blast 3-balls and dunks and free throws. We can't do that with TJones and DMo.....because they simply can't shoot from deep with any effectiveness.

 

The other night the Minny announcer Dave Benz made a comment about how Adelman likes to go with his favorite Cunningham down the stretch of games because he feels like he can rely on him more than Williams... I wouldn't go as far as to say he has the "trust" of the coaching staff, but at least he's made his way into the starting lineup.

Also keep in mind that he's making 5 million this year, 6.3 million in 2014/15, and 8.2 million in 2015/16.

Statistically he's about the same offensive player as Matt Barnes but without the defensive rating.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willide02.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/barnema02.html

Why this guy's name keep on getting brought up here is beyond me. This guy doesn't help this team much at all, probably doesn't even win minutes over small ball lineups, and DESTROYS the ability to make future moves to bring in another all-star caliber player. Please close the book on bringing this guy up once and for all.

 

Update

Derrick Williams during his 5 preseason games

20 mpg
7.6 ppg
3.4 rbg
0.8 apg
0.4 bpg and 0.4 spg

shooting 40% and 25%from 3

Not really an upgrade

 

I haven't watched enough of Derrick Williams to comment, but I do like the rest of the guys in your wish list so I'll take your word for it.

However, quite frankly, when you package 3 turds together, you are just going to get a bigger turd sandwhich. Maybe Adelman falls for it, but these NBA guys just aren't that dumb, or blind.

 

Adelman isn't the one that is going to "fall" for it. He's the one that is cratering Williams' trade value. He didn't want Williams when Kahn drafted him because he already had Love. They've tried this experiment of making Williams a 3 before. Now they are doing it again in an attempt to up his trade value. But he's not a 3 and will never be a 3. He's a stretch 4. I know what his preseason numbers look like but he's playing out of position and he's playing for an organization that has butchered his development. Think Casspi. He looked like nothing but a turd with the Cavs. But we now know he's not a turd. Casspi is a viable NBA player who will probably earn himself about $20 million or more by playing for us for the next 2 seasons. He'll probably earn a new contract worth $15-25 million at least in 2 years.

Williams is a rehab special. He's more talented than TJones and DMo. He has higher basketball iq than TJones and DMo. And he's a better for than Tjones and DMo. Because he is a true stretch 4. Williams has proven he can shoot from deep. DMo and Tjones have never proven they can shoot from deep. Don't you remember Williams as a freshman at Arizona???? Those skills are still there. He just needs the right system. Just like Casspi.

Minny needs a 3. They want a 3. And they really want a 3 that can defend. Hence I am suggesting Evan Turner or Thad Young.

 

I didn't mean Williams was the turd sandwhich, like I said I haven't seen him play much in Minny. I was talking about Dmo/Jones/Smith's combined trade value. Other teams just aren't going to give you much for that.

From the little that I've seen of Williams, he did look a bit more aggressive and sure of his shot, at least compared to Jones. And he can't be worse than Dmo on defense. I think I recall Synergy stats showing him to be a weak finisher around the basket, not sure if that is still the case. And yes I do remember him at Arizona. But I still get nightmares of Morris at Kansas.

 

About the only team that I can see may give us a first rounder for one or both of DMo/Tjones would be Phoenix. They've got 3 first round picks in 2014 including one late pick from a playoff team, can't remember who it is..perhaps Indy or the Clips. Morey may be able to pry that low first round out of Phoenix for DMo.......but I sincerely doubt it.

However, I could see the possibiliy of trading DMo to Phoenix for a second rounder along with Phoenix waiving and buying out Gortat so we could sign Gortat with our mini-MLE. That wouldn't be something that would likely happen until closer to the trade deadline IF we lined up a deal for Asik. But I could see Morey trading DMo to Phoenix and having and agreement in place with them to help them get a buyout of Gortat done by the trade deadline. There is no team in the league with enough cap space to claim Gortat on waivers right now except Philly. I think if we flipped Philly Smith for future considerations that we could get them to agree not to pick up Gortat on the waiver line. In fact, knowing how bad they want to lose I can't see them being interested in picking up Gortat anyways.

So if we could move out DMO to PHoenix for a second rounder and Greg Smith to Philly for a second rounder, then we'd still have TJones' contract to combine with either or both of Asik/Lin to bring in a starting 4.

 

Well you shouldn't. Morris is an NBA player and will probably be a better NBA player for his career than Jones will. Derrick Williams is better than Morris. He was at Arizona. He is now.

Like I said, DMo/Jones/Smith's combined trade value isn't great. But neither is Evan Turner's trade value and neither is Derrick Williams' trade value. Turner (and for that matter Thad Young) is not in the long-term plans in Philly. I'd bet they'd be happy to get DMo for Turner. They could flip Turner to Minny, take back a player from Minny and DMo/TJones/Smith. Philly flips Derrick Williams here. Perhaps Minny would bite on Tjones and Turner for Williams while Philly simply gets DMo/Smith for Turner. Or flip Thad Young in there and Philly gets out from underneath his deal while getting a yougster or two and maybe a second rounder or whatever.

The pieces are there between Houston, Philly, and Minny to get a deal done that would help out all teams a little bit. Not a blockbuster deal. But just a shuffling of young players who are not going to make it where they are at.

 

Main reason why I liked Morris so much was his potential to be a mismatch at the 3. That never materialized, at least not with the Rockets. As a stretch 4, he can still be effective, but has a decidedly lower ceiling. That's why I'm holding back on my projections on these positionally ambiguous players out of college nowadays.

 

He could not score in the slightest like Pierce and Melo.
They could make it look easy and light it up any time.

If you are a scorer and you have a problem scoring with the big boys, that does not seem to bode well tbh with you.

 

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The PF position is no longer a question. I have the answer.
It doesn't matter who is plugged in at the starting PF position. The Rockets have still been blowing out teams almost every time they win.

In other words, we already have our star PF. His name is Dononesasspith.:grin: