[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: The Impact of Harden's Deal

Bima, thanks for the excellent write-up. I always wonder why ESPN.com and other prominent sports-oriented websites don't provide this sort of quality information/analysis.

What do you think the chances are of a Jeremy Lin trade sooner rather than later? I get that Houston would like to see if a Jeremy Lin-James Harden starting backcourt can work, but if you hold on to him, and he continues to disappoint (at least with Harden in the lineup), his value continues to decline. Seems like his huge game against the Spurs the other night might lead a handful of (desperate?) teams to cough up a pick and/or a prospect for Lin.

Also, off the top of your head, who are a few seemingly obtainable players who Daryl Morey might be interested in prior to the February trade deadline? Acquiring Dwight Howard or Chris Paul this summer strikes me as a pipe dream. Two guys who jump out at me are Paul Millsap and Ersan Ilyasova. There's also Eric Bledsoe, who the Clippers surely should shop around, as his value may never be higher than it is right now, and especially as the Clippers' championship window may close sooner than people think (this is the Clippers we're talking about, things tend to fall apart).

 

Sorry, one more quick question: what are the teams that are several million dollars over the luxury tax threshold who might be willing to package a first round pick with an unwanted $4-$6 mil contract in order to dodge the luxury tax in 2012-13? The Bulls are, I think, one such team, and they'd have to think about packaging a first round pick with Richard Hamilton's expiring contract (worth around $5 mil, I believe). If Morey can't utilize the surplus cap space to absorb a very good player somehow, obviously he attempts to exploit a team desperately trying to avoid the tax this season.

 

I would like to take Mirotic off their hands for Hamilton. He can knock down threes, set picks, and roll to basket....if he ever comes over.

 

Chicago likes this guy a lot, too, presumably, which is why it's far more likely that the Bulls package their 2013 first round pick with Richard Hamilton's contract to Houston or one of the other teams with $5+ mil in unused cap space mentioned above by Bima Thug.

 

Call me skeptical, but i think whether mchale is still coach or not will likely signify if the target is love or not.

 

With the salary committed to Noah, Boozer, and Gibson. I don't see them bringing over Mirotic until 2015-15 at the earliest. If's he's the best big man in Europe right now then I'd assume he'd cost closer to $5M/yr than $3M/yr.

So I do think he can be had.

Especially, since the Bulls need to clear salary room to use their MLE on a wing. Rip has an unguaranteed contract but to make actual space they can spend they'll need to move Hinrich who's only a stop gap until Rose is back anyway.

Redick, Mayo, JR Smith, Budinger, or even Tony Allen will be available. The Bulls really need to give themselves a chance at least to sign one of these guys.

Not to forget the Rockets have the rights to Furkan Aldemir to use as a trade sweetener.

Hinrich will have 1yr left on his contract but that actually benefits the Rockets. 2014 free agency > 2013 free agency. Not really any quality points guards available in next year's free agency barring CP3 and even harder to sign one on a 1+1 deal.

 

Nice job, as always, Bima! THANKS!

 

Bima, what do you think the chance of Jeremy Lin stays on the team until next season?

 

Do you think Rockets will continue to keep Jeremy Lin and develop him as a true Point Guard? Or Rockets are willing to let him go this or next season?

 

Rockets definitely value Lin highly. Playmaking skills are hard to come by. Just because it will take time for Lin to learn to play with Harden, the Rockets aren't going to let him go easily. If they haven't gelled after two years, the Rockets may then look to trade him.

Now if someone is willing to trade a young star for him, he would be gone.

 

Isn't Lin a young star too?

Just because he plays passively this season, doesn't mean he isn't valued. I think as season goes on and closer to the end of season, we will have a better idea of Lin's role in this system, especially during playoffs. Lin will excel cause he will give other team a different look then James Harden and that is value! My personal opinion though. But would love to hear from BIMA!

 

Lin is not a star currently. Nope, Love is a young star. Durant is a young star. Lin currently is the 4th best starter on a .500 team. I like his potential, but he still has a ways to go to being a star.

 

I believe that both Utah and Sacramento would be interested in trading for Jeremy Lin, as neither has a bona fide starting PG. Sacramento would especially be interested in Lin because of his marketability, as they surely have one of the most uninterested fan bases in the league. Interestingly, each team has surplus bigs. It seems to me that the longer Houston holds on to Jeremy Lin, the more his trade value drops. A team can conceivably look at that boxscore from the recent Rockets-Spurs ballgame where Lin blew up in James Harden's absence and convince itself that Lin is still a potential star PG but one who simply cannot coexist with James Harden.

It also seems to me that Houston might be able to assemble a package that could fetch Eric Bledsoe, although they might have to recruit a third team in order to make this happen (e.g., Orlando; J.J. Redick would be a nice player for the Clips this season).

Basically, I'd love to see Houston flip Jeremy Lin, some of its first- and second-year guys, and some of its expiring contracts for Eric Bledsoe and either DeMarcus Cousins or Paul Millsap. And I think this is a very achievable goal.

 

Good ideas, but Eric Bledsoe can't play with James Harden either.

 

Another question. For players on the Gilbert Arenas type contracts. Which figures get used if they're traded, the averaged out salary, or the real amout being paid to the player?

Edit: I think this post cleared it up. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7439707&postcount=63

 

Off topic question: When Lin and Asik are free agents, will the maximum salary possible they can get be 105% of final year's balloon payment if it is greater than 25% of salary cap? I've tried looking at Coon's FAQ, but must be blind as I don't see the answer.

 

I don't think there's that much of a tie between Love & McHale, definately not like McHale & KG. Love's a definate (but not "at any cost") target for a trade by Morey (IMHO). Besides, he becomes a FA in 2015. That gives us time to develope or trade TJ, RW, DMO & Smith. I think Love's on the front burner, but the heat's on medium.

 

I don't know, I once heard Kevin Love rave about how much McHale meant to him. He credits part of his development to McHale. I'm pretty sure there's a close connection.