[ClutchFans] For Rockets, pushing Parsons to early free agency suddenly makes sense

I have always assumed that the team would go the RFA route. It is all up to Parsons this next year. We are assuming he will have a further improvement and become consistent doing it. If he has a leap though his worth has shot up. Let him shop around and we match. That way at the least we can match him and trade for nice assets or even keep him as he has become the 3rd star.

Of course if after this season we are faced with getting the best player in the world but he wants his money too. Then we can wait on Parsons payday and pursue said Championship player.No matter how good Parsons trumps that.

Or Parsons could play like crap or get hurt bad and he becomes worth a bucket of warm piss.

 

ok

Strangely enough I looked up at the header a couple of times to see if I was at BR and not Clutchfans.

 

I think cap flexibility is indeed important until we get a third star. I'm not sure we can win a title without one. Now, that's not to say Parsons can't become that star. But we have to remember that we have Parsons's bird rights, so we can go over the cap to sign him. So if a superstar becomes available, signing Parsons early might negatively affect our ability to swing a deal for that superstar. But if we get the third star first, we can still go over the cap to resign Parsons.

On the other hand, if Parsons develops into a legit star this season then it would be wise to resign him as a restricted free agent next offseason. I think it is highly optimistic but not unreasonable to hope for Chandler to put up Paul George-like numbers (17.4/7.6/4.1) this year. If this happens, it would be fair to consider Parsons a legitimate third star (George made all-NBA), and in that case we should re sign him next offseason while he is still restricted.

In summary: if we land a third star before next offseason, or if Parsons becomes that third star this season, we should try to re sign him as a restricted free agent next offseason. Otherwise, I think we should try maintain what cap flexibility we still have in order to try to land a third star, and gamble that loyalty and having Parsons's bird rights will allow us to resign him the following offseason as an UFA.

 

With Fegan as his agent, I'm guessing this won't generate any goodwill, but if Morey pays him a year earlier, that is all extra money for Chandler.

Let's say Chandler does well this coming year and has a market value of $8 million (purely hypothetical). If he signed for LESS than market value... let's say $7 million, he would make $29 million over the next 5 years.

If he signs this coming year for $8 million per, then he would make $33 million.

If he has to wait an extra year and signs for MORE than his market value.... let's say $9 million, he would make $29 million over the next 5 years.


The best thing for him to do for his career is to resign with the Rockets as early as possible.

 

seems like just yesterday he was kid with bad acne replacing hey bud, let's party after that debacle against howard's Magic.

 

Good article.

But the Boozer comparison is not quite the same. Unless Morey lets Parsons get through the 14/15 season to unrestricted free agency. Boozer was made unrestricted by the Cavs with a verbal agreement to sign for the MLE with them after they made their other moves. He had only been with them 2 years. Boozer and Pelinka flat bamboozled the Cavs into letting him go unrestricted. They weren't going to sign the MLE deal even before it was actually the MLE deal. They simply agreed to that amount of money and then since it was MLE money they used the idea of signing later to wiggle free and get the big money from Utah. Cleveland didn't have the opportunity to match. For that reason I simply can't see Morey letting Parsons go unrestricted in 2015. Morey won't have the ability to match if he does that. So it makes no sense. Morey just isn't going to take that kind of risk of Parsons walking away for nothing. Especially now that Fegans is involved.

The negotiations between Fegan and Morey could get very interesting...especially since Fegan is Dwight's agent too. There is past history with Fegan/Olajuwon and the Rockets that might come into play also. But Morey holds the hammer of just letting him go through RFA and matching the offer. And that is what I see happening. I do not see Morey floating along with Parsons on this contract through next season and risking losing Parsons just for the chance to sign Love outright after 14/15. And that is the only possible reason for letting Parsons play out his deal....to save max room to sign a FA outright.

The primary opportunity for us to add a third max guy is sometime between now and the start of the 14/15 season. Because during this period of time we can maintain roster flexibility to clear out cap space and sign a guy outright to a max deal or we can put together trade assets to trade for that guy. And the other thing you have to recognize about acquiring the 3rd max guy is it is most likely going to come through trade...simply because the team that the max free agent is leaving is most likely not going to take the risk of losing him for nothing. Teams are getting smarter. They're not going to let these guys walk for nothing. They're gonna get commitments from them and take the options off the table or they'll work a trade.

With that in mind, there is simply no reason to let Parsons play out his deal and become unrestricted.

 

Lol

I remember him the year before and thought he would be good one day but thought it would take a few years. Last year shocked me. Hope he does it again.

 

Asik.....no. He almost certainly wont last with this team until that point anyways. Unless for some reason he can convert to the PF position full time this year.

Lin... yes. I could definitely see him resigning in Houston for less money than he is currently making now (assuming the 8.3 salary cap #). At that point Lin will be who he is, and team very seldom pay more than the mid-level for a player who is a middle of the pack starter.

If he's been the starter on this team for 3 years, and the team has had major success.... I could definitely see the market dictating, and Lin having to take less than his current salary to stay in Houston past 2015. Unless for some reason his game reaches new levels, and he becomes a superstar PG. Something I personally dont see happening playing alongside such talents as Harden, Howard, and Parsons.

Regardless, the point of that post was to state that the Rockets would at that point have options. They could trade them earlier as expiring contracts, resign them (if the market allows them to do so), or simply let them walk in free agency. Chandler Parsons re-signing for "too much" is not a major concern for me if this team pans out like it should this year.

 

Ohhhh... how times have changed. Now he's a J-Crew model looking for a near max contract...... (and Dwight is a Rocket).

 

Lol

I don't see Lin being worth less than he is now if he stays healthy. He is a good PG just not a great one. Run of the mill NBA PG starters earn around what Lin is making now. He will not re sign at much lower if he stays healthy. He will be gone as this team has only so much to pay.

Asik is gone. He is a top Center and they are hard to get. He will be worth more than he is getting if he stays healthy and keeps improving. He is a player that can change a teams fortune. Just hope he is in the Eastern conference when he leaves us.

 

You wrote an excellent column, The Cat! I especially enjoy reading columns and articles by members that Clutch puts on the Front Page. They invariably reflect the high standards this BBS has that sets it apart from the other sports sites on the internet, regardless of sport. As for Chandler and the contract he ends up signing with the Rocks, I'm expecting something on the order of $38 million over 4 years, which would average about $9.5 million a year over the length of the deal.

 

That's reasonable but I suspect Daryl will offer him the 5th year..possibly partially guaranteed with a signing bonus up front to make the contract more palatable in our salary cap structure. 5-yrs with a signing bonus and $10-$12 million per.

 

Can Morey offer a 5 year deal? I thought the new CBA put a damper on 5 year contracts. No?

 

I thought they were allowed only one 5 year contract?

 

The greater fear is not the Boozer-to-Utah scenario if Parsons becomes a RFA but the Boozer-to-Chicago scenario, where the Bulls grossly overpaid for a glorified role player. And that scenario is a possibility whether he goes RFA or UFA. I'm sorry, but Parsons at $12-$13+ mil/year is a gross overpay, and smart teams don't overpay for talent. What may happen instead, I'm suggesting, is a Chase Budinger-to-Minnesota scenario, or a George Hill-to-Indiana scenario, where the smart team (Houston) sells high on his glorified role player and gets a nice mid-lottery pick in a stacked draft, and let's some other sucker grossly overpay Parsons. Again, who's to say you can't then use that pick to move up a few spots by packaging another pick or two with the pick you would get for Parsons? Who thinks San Antonio is cheap now? Isn't that how the Spurs got their third star?

 

Also, keep in mind that glorified role players on championship contenders tend to get grossly overpaid in free agency. Horace Grant was, for a period of time, the highest-paid player in the NBA, believe it or not. Parsons is going to get some ridiculous offers, you watch. Daryl Morey knows this.

 

Its just the market in 2 years. Supply and demand.

There are just too many good to great PG's in the league right now, and quite a few more up and coming ones as well making their mark on the league. Will Jeremy Lin be a better player than he is now in 2 years.... absolutely.... will he be deemed a franchise player and all-star??.. doubtful... especially on this team in the role he's going to be asked to play.

Once you drive the car off the lot, it looses alot of its value... has it become a worse car.... no way, but its no longer viewed as a shiny new toy. Jeremy Lin will not be considered a future prospect, and he probably wont be an all-star.... therefore making him something in between. In the NBA, in-between at the PG position wont command top dollar.

Given the role they need, and the team he will be on, if he's deemed too high priced to keep, the Rockets could easily then trade him February 2015 for a very good package in trade to a team looking to acquire him, and secure his bird rights for free agency the following summer.

Point is.... the Rockets have options regardless of what happens to Parsons, and even if the Rockets do have to overpay to keep him, it doesn't necessarily spell doom for their financial flexibility moving forward.

.... Yes Asik is gone. Just saying, if worse comes to worst, and the Rockets aren't able to get a great deal in trade, they have options with Asik as well as Lin if they feel its necessary to overpay to keep Parsons.

I for one, am not worried about Parsons getting overpaid in free agency. Either he's going to be great this season and the team will be better for it, or he's going to stay the same or gradually improve, and the Rockets will get a good value contract.

Either way the Rockets win.

 

No, Deng is a warrior but he is older, more limited and has physical issues. I would be hard pressed to give him a deal longer than a season or two. Good player but a lot of wear and tear on a player that already cannot create his own shots.

 

I like Chandler, but I am in favor of this approach.

 

IIRC, the Cavs had a team option on Boozer for Year 3 of his deal after being selected in the second round of the 2002 NBA Draft. They declined the option as a favor to Boozer, who was (like Parsons is now) a grossly underpaid young player making near the league minimum. Upon declining his option, Boozer became a RESTRICTED free agent. Sadly, though, Utah swept in with an offer sheet so much higher than the Cavs ever dreamed possible; and the Cavs had no choice but to let Boozer walk.

This is the fear that the Rockets probably have with letting Parsons hit restricted free agency. However, two key distinctions here are (1) the Rockets are in contender mode (unlike 2004 Cleveland) and are more willing to spend on top supporting players with two stars in place; and (2) Houston has the benefit of hindsight and can better plan for a "Utah offer sheet" situation.

Teams can sign as many of their own free agents for whom they have full Bird rights as they like to five-year deals.

The restriction on five-year deals is for EXTENSIONS. As in, before a player hits free agency. Harden got his. The Rockets cannot sign another player to a five-year extension so long as Harden's under contract (I believe). They can, however, trade for one other player on a five-year extension.