Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by The Cat, Sep 10, 2013.
Awesome article man! Keep up the good work
I think the Rockets go this route if they can get a third star (or develop one) before June 30, 2014.
Really good job, Ben.
One thing I think will be interesting is that whether it's 2014 or 2015, there are still a lot of games left to be played between now and then. Parsons has to keep a high standard of play going and prove to be a terrific fit around Harden and Howard. I'm sure he will since there are many dimensions to his game, but it's easier for all of us to call him the perfect fit when he's making less than $1 million.
I think Lin is probably the one under the most pressure to prove he's a fit around the star core, but this is a big year for Parsons.
I think if you got Parsons at $7M like you mentioned, that would still be a bargain.
Will be interesting to see the moves that Les approves when luxury tax bills are a factor.
I'm not sure which approach is better in regards to Parsons. The bottom line is that I want him to be a Rocket for the next 10 years. I trust Morey knows how to deal with this complex situation.
If parsons keeps improving do you really think he'd sign for 7 million per? I highly doubt it. Look at the type of money that was being spent this offseason. Players like Tyreke Evans got 11 million per.
Personally I don't think so ... the number I would guess is $9M (but again, we'll see how he plays this year). I would think a Batum-esque contract ($4 year, $46M) is an absolute ceiling and seems high. But you better be a pretty good team offering Parsons that kind of money. He's a good player and could be even better, but not sure I'd want that kind of money tied up unless he was complementing a star or two.
All it takes is one willing to overspend though, as you mentioned with Tyreke.
I'm skeptical that Morey can get LMA without giving up Parsons, but how can the Rockets afford four big contracts and still have enough for a decent bench?
Dwight - max
Harden - max
Aldridge - max
Parson - probably in the neighborhood of ten million a season
Parsons may play well this year and still see his (traditional box score) stats decline. Dwight Howard will command more touches than Omer Asik did and those have to come from somewhere. The team may also be deeper and can rest him for more minutes in the regular season grind.
Morey may not evaluate players this way but they do make a difference in the market, I think. Would be interesting to see how this plays out.
Besides, certain "advanced" numbers like RAPM suggests that Parsons is overall an average NBA player-- perhaps the most average player in the NBA-- and will need to make a major leap before earning close to star salary. But then again, he is The Face of the Franchise and The Free Agent Recruiter...
Why would Portland want to pay both Batum and Parsons big $?
If he makes any kind of jump this year, he will be a 10m a year player.
Even in restricted free agency, I think Parsons has a strong hand for negotiating. While he may be happy to get a pay raise a year early, it's also quite easy for him to take the qualifying offer to run out the restriction and enter unrestricted free agency if he thinks Morey is lowballing him.
For clarification, my hypothetical $7 million reference was for a possible starting salary. Given raises, my guess is the deal would average closer to $8 million/year. But as Clutch said, a lot will be dependent on how things play out this year and how good of a fit he is with Howard here.
He's got the risk of getting injured and losing out on a big payday altogether.
Canaan - <1 mil
Covington - <1 mil
Beverley - 1.2 mil
Motijunas - <3 mil
Jones - <3 mil
Garcia - <2
Casspi - <2
That puts you at 11 players at under 68 million for next three seasons with exception of Beverley who only has 2 years left on contract. I'm thinking luxury tax will be up to at least 72 million giving Rockets a little flexibility after a couple of seasons. I do expect they will make the plunge into luxury tax range at some point, but don't know if it will be more than 5-7 million over.
What happens if we get to the Finals *this year*, and all three of Parsons, Asik and Lin are important contributors to that; what does Morey do then?
I think it comes down to two names: Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge, and how we acquire them. We heard rumors that Morey was on the verge of acquiring LMA via trade before they were gifted Robin Lopez and apparently decided to give it another shot with their current group. What was involved in that trade is unclear but I tend to believe that it did not involve Parsons. Likely it included Jones, Asik and picks.
If Morey feels he can acquire one of these guys via trade in the next year (and it doesn't include Parsons), I think he lets Chandler hit restricted free agency. If not, I think Lin and Asik play out their contracts, and Morey preserves his cap space for 2015 (Love and LMA both potential free agents), while hoping to sign Parsons afterward, utilizing a very low cap hold and Bird rights.
Valid point. But, Batum to the 4 in replacement of LMA would make sense. Except - - IMHO LMA is Lin-esque. The wrong fit for the pieces already on roster.
I like Lin; I like LMA (a lot). I think Knight might just fit this squad better and at fewer $s while Aldridge would work, there have to be better options out there.
I missed that completely. DM the GM was on the verge with an LMA deal?