[ClutchFans] By Declining Garcia, Rockets Keeping All Options Open

Bima,

The 60 day waiting period to be able to trade a player in combination with other players,that a team over the cap traded for.....is that in effect at all times (in between seasons) or just during a single season? In other words, does that restriction reset after the July Moratorium so that players traded for on draft day can be moved immediately? Or do teams over the cap have to still wait the 60 days? (I think they do but I'm hoping they don't.)

The reason I'm wondering....For us to execute a S&T deal with the Lakers for Dwight, we're going to need to collect some non-guaranteed contracts or else some contracts that they want. We would really need to trade possibly Brooks and Ohlbrecht for a couple non-guaranteed deals, deals such as Stiemsma or CJ Miles, or DeShawn Stevenson, that could be combined with a couple young assets and possibly Garcia signed and traded to a 3rd team....in order to come up with about $16 million of salary to send out for Dwight.

I have been waiting to see if the Rox were going to move on something like this soon. I know they can trade up until June 30, but if the 60 day restriction applies then that means if Dwight agrees to come here and we can manage a S&T transaction with the Lakers, if we don't get those guys on the books until June 30 then we are going way late into the off season to complete any S&T deal. And if we don't move Brooks by June 30, we either have to let him go or keep him at the guaranteed $2.5 million. I would think it would be relatively easy to flip him right now for one of those characters I just mentioned. ATL for sure. Surely they would value Brooks on a 1-yr deal at $2.5 million and getting him for basically nothing (Stevenson's contract).

 

Interesting breakdown. I can't imagine the Rockets not using this cap space to lure a max player, but it's nice to know it's a useful option if we don't get one of these max type players.

 

From what I understand, there is no incentive for a S&T because we cannot offer Dwight a 5-yr deal, only 4 years. Harden is our 5 year "super max" player and each team only gets one of those under the new CBA. So if Dwight wants to come here, he's taking the same 4 year deal either way so there is really no point in a S&T.

 

Bima,

Out of curiosity, why do you think landing Dwight Howard is so unlikely? Your article makes it seem like our chances our so thin. Wouldn't you say Houston should be one of his top 3 destinations? Or do you think the Rockets plan to go in another direction?

Thanks

 

Good stuff as always

 

MIND BLOWN!

 

Houston chances are slim.

Dwight stays in LA.

Houston walks away empty handed.

Dwight gets free iPad from Morey and free food/dinner from Harden/Parsons(if cyberx is to be believed).

 

Dwight has already showed interest, i think he would be more obvious about not even considering houston if his chances of coming here were so low.

 

Hi Bima,

Thanks for the article. Very interesting article.
League revenues rose a record 20% last year, which would equate to a cap of $70 million. However, owners and players actually negotiate the cap limit taking league revenues into consideration. I have a feeling that many owners (feeling restricted by CBA rules, in luxury tax or rebuilding) and players want to see the cap raised significantly. Historically, the cap limit has been unpredictable, with some years taking a big jump and other years not changing at all. In your article, you predicted a cap limit of $60 million which was crucially important to support your thesis of Houston wanting to be over the cap. What considerations did you factor into the cap limit of $60 million (up from $58m), and why do you think the cap will not be set at $65m or $70m to more closely reflect the record breaking jump in league revenues of 20%?

 

Morey is a gun!

 

NBA salary cap due for a jump after 4 years of no rises because of economic recession (global financial crises). In the past year, league revenues rose 20%. What will the owners and players agree to?

 

I am much more anticipating the dates for Delfino and Brooks' option. If either or both are picked up, then we can assume the Rockets are out of the Howard sweepstakes. That is, unless Asik/Lin gets traded later.

 

Delfino & Brooks = June 30 (last day to guarantee their contracts)

Free Agency = July 1 (Start)

Assuming we will not trade Asik and Lin to get Howard...

you saying that if Delfino and Brooks are guaranteed before June 30, we are not going after Howard. Unless Howard declares early he is resigning, how does Houston know if Howard is a possibility when negotiations cannot start until after July 1st? I think Houston have to get rid of Delfino and Brooks before making a run at Howard, not the other way around.

 

Thanks for the reply Bima.

Here is a link to the article on NBA.com saying Stern estimates record $5 billion profit (up 20%) for the season past due primarily to increased sales in Asia (China).

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/11/13/stern-nba-revenue.ap/index.html

Not sure when the actual numbers come out but I think Larry probably hasn't considered it in his estimation of the new cap.

Anecdotally, I travel through Asia quite a bit and have witnessed increased presence of the NBA on national TV and documentaries, advertising... etc.

Wouldn't be surprised at all about record breaking revenue numbers for the NBA based on this.

 

So one thing I've wondered but no one speaks of on these boards is the possibility(even if its zero) that we go over the cap? I don't know how that happens, but arent most teams over the cap? What is stopping us from going over the cap? The luxury tax should not be a huge hit, definitely not as severe as a couple of other places. Is this something we can choose to do, or is this something where we go over cap only under certain circumstances? I simply don't know. Logically I would think a cap literally means a cap and we can't go over that, but then I see the Lakers $40million over the cap and wonder how things get that way.

 

We could very easily go over the salary cap, and will if we sign a guy like Dwight.

Going over the luxury tax line is another story. I seriously doubt we go there unless it is some sort of midseason acquisition that puts us into the luxury tax because we can see we are one piece away from really bringing it to Miami.

 

The incentive for us is to play above the cap and have the full MLE to use to add a player or two. The incentive for the Lakers is to get back a young player or possibly two.