[ClutchFans] An NBA Nightmare: The James Harden-Dwight Howard Pick-and-Roll

Tyson Chandler is also one of the best PNR players in the league. Lin was playing w/ Asik who isn't bad, but clearly is not as effective as Tyson Chandler on the pnr.

 

Is the writer's name really Carl Fudge?

 

Daryl Morey
@dmorey
Check out the gr8 article on synergy between @DwightHoward & @JHarden13 next year by @SloanSportsConf own Carl Fudge! rockets.clutchfans.net/4559/james-har…

 

I read an article earlier this year can't remember when it was written but I remember a breakdown of pnr plays with Dwight on the Lakers and it emphasized the significant drop off in howards pnr points per possession when Steve Blake ran the pnr as opposed to Nash. Which is clear but I remember it being something like a .2-.3 pop difference. I'll have to check it out on a computer once in home. But also it showed that because of nash's injuries Blake ran most of the pnr's for Howard last year. Thus hurting his pnr numbers.

 

It doesn't make sense that you think Lin is as good a PnR player as Harden. Probably people should stop reading at that point.

 

If you have a point with something to back it up with, please post it. Otherwise please refrain from inane comments.

 

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But, I don't get the logic. If Lin is not Linsanity-level, Bev is better?? Do you really think Bev is that good? I mean, I like Bev's potential and saw it immediately and posted that he would be a clear upgrade over TD since Bev's first game, but....

Come on, lol. He's not close to Linsanity. Hell, I don't think he's even close to Lin last year. By what metric should he start? He can't run an offense. He doesn't create plays or rack up assists. Lin has shot better than him from 3 since he joined. His defense according to advanced stats is not what everyone's making it out to be. He fouls at a very high clip.. I don't get what you guys are thinking at all. Lin has done things at the early end of his career that is not done often by many people and it's one thing to say he's just lucky or that (last year's meme that every drone repeated) the stars were aligned, but to say that Bev is better than Lin or has shown even close to the same potential is ridiculous. Bev has been great for us and I love his energy but to mistake him for a starter at this stage is imo nearly laughable. Especially from Rockets fans, cuz if you guys didn't know, half of those "experts" who talk with such confidence about Parsons and Lin, etc, have watched a maximum of 5 Rockets game all last year, if that. And I've seen every Lakers game last year, and there's a reason why LA fans are laughing at us drooling over the potential of the pick n roll with Dwight. He avoided it all the time. Yes, I know what the stats show, but that's just because he's an athletic monster not that he wants to run the pnr as we're envisioning. You do know that D'Antoni is a pnr expert and for all the laughs he gets, his offensive sets are elite in the field of coaching especially in regards to pnrs.. Anyways, I digress.

Straight up, Bev is the better deal cuz he is outperforming his contract but he's getting paid pretty low... Were he the starter, he would be a clear downgrade from JLin. Not even a question in terms of nearly every stat and theory imaginable, except to say that we don't need a good pg on our team to win because we have Harden...? But the point is, if didn't have a trade ready to upgrade our 1 position, how does putting in Bev in that spot help our team? It doesn't, except to appease Lin haters. Even if Lin disappoints, we would have to look for another starting pg, not Bev (at this point in time).

And the biggest myth and strangest groupthink phenomenon I'm seeing these days is that Lin is a terrible on-ball defender.... Really? Is that what you guys are seeing? I've been coaching for over a decade, playing for much more, watching for even more, and I see a very fast, disruptive, deceptively strong (no, it is not racist to say that) defender with accurate and fast hands with excelling instincts and positioning. Advanced stats support this and repeated critical watching supports this. Does he get burned every once in a while? You betcha. How else are these guys gonna get their averages. But no more than Bev has been burned.. The up in your face defense is relegated to those who don't/can't run an offense and only works in SPURTS. CP3 is masterful at pressure defense but not more than 5 minutes a game. You can clearly see that it affects his offense on the days he presses hard on defense. And look at Rondo or anyone similar and you'll see the same things you see from Lin. In fact, jeez, take a look at any starting pg playing defense and watch without bias for an entire game... It's all right there, I don't know how some of you guys don't see how good Lin is on defense. It's like if anybody gets by him, he's the worst in the world.

Groupthink is an amazingly depressing thing to see, and I hate seeing it in basketball. Just cuz it's cool to think Lin's bad at everything, people are literally saying now that if he's not a 40% 3 pt shooter, he can't shoot 3s. That along with 40% 3pt shooting, better defense than his already above average defense (both in stats and in the eye test), playmaking, steals, etc., he'd better overcome all his weaknesses OR ELSE, they'd still rather have Bev start cuz.... oh hell, I have no idea why... Sigh~ I guess I'm not surprised. The same things were said about TD, or BDiddy back in NY, etc..

 

I lol'd

 

I rambled a bit above but a Harden/Howard pnr within our system is much better than the situation over in L.A. so I also have high hopes for an airborne element to our offensive attack. We should be raining lobs all throughout the next season with our up and down offense. We'll average more, not less, than last year if things go according to plan. Unless that is, Howard wants to work on his post game. But that's another issue with a whole different set of pluses and minuses. And with a second attack point in Lin or Parsons, or even TJ or D-Mo.. Our offense should be automatic as long as we play fast and hard. Can't wait for next year..

 

I still think people criminally underrate his assisting skills. Granted I do think Lin is better but the numbers I'm looking at don't show this canyon type divide between the two that you and others are making it out to be.

Per 48 it's 9.0 vs 7.9 assists in Lins favor. And while its true you can say Lin faces more time against starters you can also say Bev is hampered by playing more time with fellow bench players making assists a little tougher to come by.

Just go look at his game log, he had some games where he got 6-8 assists while only playing around 20 minutes. He HAS shown good playmaking potential. Who knows what he would do as a starter? Hard to say without seeing it.

That said I still think that Lin has to be the guy as long as he keeps his 3 point percentage up, but wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Lins minutes are once again in the very low 30s to give Bev solid backup minutes.

 

if they not goin to fully use JLin as an PG this year..They mind as well trade him next season..I dont want to see him just standing in the corner shooting 3s..

 

Lol. That's not what you saw last year and it won't be what you see this year. Did he spend some time camping the 3 point line? Sure, but it wasn't every play or even most plays.

But keep perpetuating this extreme exaggeration as if it were truth if it makes you feel better.

 

The problem is that your math is all arbitrary. And probably wrong.

 

the funniest part of the "corner" narrative is most of Lin's spot up threes were from the wings not the corners. Corners are occupied by the forwards most of the time.

 

this...all of this. and many CF'rs don't expect PB to have to increase his 3pt% to 40% like lin. his scrappy defense is enough for him to overtake the starter spot since he'll be relegated to a spot up 3pt shooter since harden will run the offense.

 

Not to mention the logic in paying a guy max money for his offense and then using him as a spot up shooter.

 

The numbers are for illustration purpose. I suspect many would agree that Lin's PnR skill is closer to Harden's than his 3 pt%. If you can find the actual numbers then I am all ears. I looked around several websites without success.

 

He means Lin might have a "comparable advantage" over Harden in PNR.

Out of a 1-10 scale, let's assume Harden is

PNR : 9
Spot-up : 8

And Lin is:

PNR : 8
Spot-up : 4

Then it would make sense to have a very-good PNR player (Lin) along with a deadly spot-up shooter (Harden). Rather than a great PNR player (Harden) with a mediocre spot-up shooter (Lin). The "loss" you get from the Lin-PNR (as opposed to the Harden PNR) is more than made up in the gain you get from Harden as the spot-up guy over Lin.

It looks good in trade theory and will make a lot of sense on the court in a lot of situations based on the type of match-ups, defense, hot-hand, etc.

Where it fails is that it assumes the spot-up shooter is going to be utilized on some level comparable to the PNR handler. This is usually not the case so Harden could largely be "wasted" as the spot-up guy even though he can excel in that area.

Lin fans shouldn't worry about this as he will definitely get his share of running the PNR with D12. Maybe not the lion's share but definitely a lot. He will also be utilized as a spot-up shooter too. It is not a static game. We can't run the same play with the same guys standing in the same positions for 48 minutes a game. And Harden fans shouldn't get mad if they see Lin running the PNR for stretches. We have two really good players in that area and we should utilize them both.

 

He's going to be spotting up too. The flow of the game will dictate this at times.

If you are on a team with a good PG that runs the PNR a lot, does that mean your wing players just stand on the 3 point line for 48 minutes a game? Of course not.

Conversely, if you have a shooting guard running the PNR a lot, does that mean your starting PG stands in the corner for 48 minutes a game? No.

Things are not that black and white (yellow?).