Spoiler Clint Capela: Let's start off basic: Of all the minutes the Rockets played during the 2016-17 regular season, Capela was on the floor for 39% of them. While he was on the floor, the Rockets outscored the opponent by 215 points. Hypothetically, if Capela played the entire game (48 minutes), the Rockets, on average, would be 6.7 points better than their opponent. Wow! At just the tender age of 22, Capela averaged 19.0 points / 12.2 rebounds / 1.8 blocks on 64.3% shooting per 36 minutes. This is a rare feat, so I wanted to find out just how rare it is. So here is the list: Clint Capela Yup, that's it -- he's the only one! The only player close to qualifying was Dwight Howard at age 21, who averaged 17.2 pts / 12.0 reb / 1.9 blk on 60% shooting. Capela had a historic season last year and not many people even noticed. He raised his TS% from 55.3% to 63.8%, which is quite remarkable. Of course, he was 5th in the NBA with 163 dunks, so he's not taking many difficult shots, but his conversion rate is still very high. In fact, 78.7% of his shots were taken within three-feet, which is great for a player in his role. For reference, Dwight Howard was 75% in this category and DeAndre Jordan was 87%! He is a bonafide Pick-and-Roll, Roll Man, and doesn't try much else. Getting to .184 WS/48 is impressive as 22-year-old, and this is one advanced metrics that has solid predictive abilities and year-to-year stability. This is the 11th-highest WS/48 of players 6-10 or taller before the age of 24. A fairly unremarkable shot chart which I categorize as: "Good, keep getting dunks and not trying stuff you're not good at." It would be interesting to see if Capela could develop a mid-range, to add to his Pick-and-Roll repertoire, but the Rockets have eschewed this type of shot from their offense, so it's most likely water under the bridge. Our next visual is from talented NBA Data guru Jacob Goldstein (who will appear on next podcast) made a shot-making efficiency metric, that dates back to 1979. It predicts someone's expected TS%, and then looks at what they actually made, generating percentiles that show you someone's ability to score, taking volume and efficiency with equal consideration. Wow! Capela ranked in the 95th percentile overall. A player in his role would be expected to take shots that are on par with league average difficulty, but he converted them at an elite rate, hence the high ranking. We can also see his tremendous improvement from the year prior, when he ranked in 32nd percentile, converting at league-average rates on even easier shots. We now look at every lineup that eclipsed 50 minutes played for the Rockets in the 2016-17 season. Capela is a part of five of the 15. Four of them are large net positives, and one is negative, attributable to the addition of Sam Dekker and Corey Brewer, who are not going to turn many heads. Capela seems to positively impact the defense net ratings of the lineups he appears in, and is a great complement to lineups chock-full of shooters. Capela obviously played all of his minutes at the 5, which is the only thing that makes sense when Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, and Sam Dekker are your PFs. Without window dressing, opposing centers did pretty darn well against the Rockets, which is no surprise considering the lack of defenders on their team last year, and they depended on a 22-year-old to protect the rim, which he actually did pretty well. These are the guys who averaged over 5.5 defensive contests inside 6 feet (some not pictured). We can see there's tiers: Tier 1: Draymond Green Rudy Gobert Kristaps Porzingis Joel Embiid (not enough GP to qualify) Tier 2: Miles Plumlee through Anthony Davis Tier 3: Clint Capela Serge Ibaka Al Horford I would rank Capela as pretty solid, but not spectacular as a rim-protector based on the SportVu player tracking data. If you don't know from the other player investigations, I created a statistic that captures the effectiveness of contributions that don't hit the box score. The updated formula uses a Bayesian estimation, correlated to RAPM. Per 36: (Screen Assists / 2) + (Deflections) + (Inverse Defensive FG% plus-minus /1.25) + (Drawn Charges) + (Loose Balls Recovered) + (Contested Shots) + (Hockey Assists * 2.25) + (RAPM / 3) Capela ranked 134/280 in the Uncaptured Box Statistic, sandwiched between Devin Harris and Malcolm Brogdon. Basically, he's pretty darn neutral in his non-box contributions. Pretty solid, not great but not bad. I would to see him bump in his deflections, screen assists, and continue to improve on his DFG% numbers. To help you understand this next section, what you're looking at with this table from NBA Math. Capela is pink and Harrell is orange. Value Added is calculated by finding the difference between individual PPP and the league-average PPP for that play type, then multiplying by the number of possessions used (Indiv. PPP - Lg. Avg PPP) * (Poss.). It indicates the value added on offense or saved on defense provided by that player, as compared to a league-average contributor filling that same role. I thought the best player to juxtapose Capela's play type data against was Montrezl Harrell, given that he filled the same exact role, albeit on the same team. As you can see from their play-type frequency charts, they filled the exact same role. Since they played a different amount of minutes, raw value added may distort the optics in judging their effectiveness in each play-type. Harrell seemed to be much more effective in transition and put-backs, while Capela excelled in cuts to the basket and as a Roll-Man. Here's their percentile for reference: Woah, what's going on here -- is Montrezl Harrell just a beast? Offensively, my answer is yes! He absolutely thrives in a pace-and-space system, where he can take all his shots around the rim. The reason he isn't playing more minutes is that Capela is a significantly better rebounder and rim-protector. Don't be surprised if Harrell becomes a very valuable role player for his new team, the Los Angeles Clippers. http://www.sixerscience.com/player-investigations.html#Capela
Capela could be a top 10 center. Time will tell but he's progressing that way atleast offensively. The rockets really need him to turn into a top 5 rim protector. I'm skeptical but I'm holding out hope he does have the physics tools.
nice info, thanks OP my hope for Capela this season: 14 points, 10 boards, and 2 blocks a game while averaging 30 mpg...I also want to see his free throw percentage no lower than 60%
Capela just fits like a glove. My hope is he can play more minutes and he gets his FT above 70%. His defense has often been misunderstood on here as our defensive scheme invokes a lot of switching.
A lot of people here, including myself, often forget how young this kid is. We also forget that Morey wanted to keep him overseas another year, which I still feel would have been great for him.
thinly disguised Sam Dekker and Corey Brewer bashing thread. Spoiler just kidding, great info, great post. nice job
Great article but... I'm going to say something a little controversial... Im not too high on Capela. There, I said it. I think he's a great fit to our system and have a nice cutting sense and soft touch around the basket. But I think he's ceiling is not that high. I give most of the credit to Harden who sets him up perfectly time after time. To be honest, if we could trade him now when his value is way up i think thats the best thing we could do. I would trade him for Okafor + someone/something that we could use as a trade chip for Melo for example. He will want a lot of money next year, and just not sold that he's worth it. Having said that, if he'll stay he will be a monster next to Harden AND Paul. A center's dream scenario.
You'd actually want Okafor? Okafor is destined to be a scoring big off the bench. Capela is far more valuable on the court than he is. Okafor is a low post C that can't defend a thing. He was dead last among C's in DRPM at -4.43.
I think Okafor was on a bad system and he will thrive next to Harden and Paul. One of the best footworks among bigs in the league, and he can find his way on defense with the right direction. But not hanging on Okafor. Point is that Capela value is rocket high now, and I think its mostly due to Harden being a genius. I think any agile center with decent coordination can be a beast next to Harden and Paul. We obviously can't trade Capela without getting a big return, but i think we should consider it moving forward. He's pretty much our only high asset that we can get a really good return on to improve our team.
Him not being a rim protector or enforcer leaves a lot of question marks but he will of course flourish with 2 elite PGs on the court. Good post
Agree with you, system and Harden (soon to be CP3 too) exaggerate the stats. But I'd rather trade for more D than more O at center spot. Okafor's game is not good fit for Houston especially if no trade.
Okafor cannot guard the pick and roll, which is Clint's enormous strength on defense. When Stephen Curry is out there, you really want Okafor defending pick and rolls? Okafor is not a starter for that reason alone.
