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Chuck Hayes finally getting some love

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Jul 7, 2006.

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  1. krosfyah

    krosfyah Contributing Member

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    Barring a trade, Juwan will be our starter. Sorry to break it to you. I said EXACTLY the same thing last summer when everybody immediately assumed Stromile was going to be our starter. Only time Stro started was if Juwan was out altogether.

    I admire your dedication to Chuck Hayes and you certainly are good with stats but it ain't gonna happen.

    Only way Check Hayes gets greater than 25mpg is if he becomes a better jump shooter than Juwan. JVG said he need a PF that can space the floor. Translation = Hayes will be relegated to a bit role. Maybe for your sake, Hayes will get traded to a team where they'll play him more.
     
    #61 krosfyah, Jul 7, 2006
  2. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    These stats are useful, but they do hava a fair amount of noise because they are just not quite detailed enough to account for who else is on the court playing with or against a particular player. I'm sure Daryl Morey has interns/employees gather more detailed stats than those available to us at 82games.com, though, and he seems to think Chuck is pretty goo.

    A part of Chucks high W/L record could be that Hayes played a high share of 2nd quarter minutes, when teams typically put more 2nd stringers on the floor and Hayes typically outplays the opposing 2nd unit. The coaches also get to pick and choose favorable matchups for Chuck. The stars, Yao and McGrady, on the other hand have to take on all comers.

    Bottom line, Rockets will see more Chuck next season. Yao and Chuck could be the deadliest 4/5 combo EVER who are a whole foot apart in height.
     
    #62 Van Gundier, Jul 7, 2006
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    For my sake, Hayes will get the minutes he deserves on the Rockets. Why would I want him helping another team?

    I just think you're looking at it a bit too simplistically. Playing time shouldn't be solely determined by your ability to hit a jump shot. I think any way you slice it, Hayes helps the team more than Juwan. It appears that he helps more on offense, surprisingly, but more importantly it's overwhelmingly the case that he's better on defense.

    I'm looking at this like an optimization problem. Where do you fit the pieces to optimize overall team performance, offensively and defensively? It just makes more sense to me to pair high efficiency, low usage guys with the two superstars if you want to optimize team performance. That's why I think Juwan coming off the bench and "leading" the second unit when Yao/McGrady are taking a rest makes more sense. Juwan appears to be clearly outmatched scoring against and defending opposing starters ... I think he'd be best used doing his thing against reserves around 15-20 minutes a game.
     
    #63 durvasa, Jul 7, 2006
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2006
  4. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    One thing for sure looking at those stats is JUWAN is NOT a Morey guy.

    Did I mention, Juwan and Yao on the floor together is simply TERRIBLE.
     
    #64 jopatmc, Jul 7, 2006
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    All very good points. I'd be interested to see how Chuck's performance changes as he becomes a "rotational player" and faces better competition. I'm not quite at the level of obsessiveness where I'll go through all the play-by-plays the past season and try to figure out his contributions against starters. I'll take it as a given that it's probably not quite as high. :)
     
    #65 durvasa, Jul 7, 2006
  6. richirich

    richirich Contributing Member

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    Hayes needed practice time and floor time with Yao & the other starters in order to learn the offensive flow. When he and Yao started to work together on a few plays with passes in the post IT WAS SWEET! He is smart and quick and as he develops rapport with the other starters I am sure his game will improve and stay efficient.

    Chuck does need to develop an 8 foot shot to start and then stretch it out further. He also needs to be able to drop in some FT's.

    His rebounding is excellent and he should be schooling JHo.....

    But grabbing rb's is easier when you play near the post vs playing out by the foul line - which may not be JHo's choice - it may be a coaching decision.

    But I could see a Novak and a Hayes in the game at the same time with Novak guarding the 4 and Hayes guarding the 2 or the 3 if he had to. Then Novak playing at the 3 line offensively and Hayes playing inside.

    It would be young and fast and athletic compared to last year's team.

    I love that they are giving him a chance to prove himself. He makes whatever rotation squad he is on much better - he is glue.
     
    #66 richirich, Jul 7, 2006
  7. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    That would only explain, in part, the disparity in offensive rebounding. How about defensive rebounding?

    Code:
    [COLOR=Navy]	DefReb%	OffReb%[/COLOR]
Hayes	22.5%	12.3%
Howard	15.1%	6.8%
    And let's also compare the team's defensive and offensive rebounding while they're in the game:

    Code:
    
	[COLOR=Navy]TmDefReb%	TmOffReb%	TmTotReb%[/COLOR]
Hayes	74.2%		31.7%		53.0%
Howard	72.2%		27.4%		49.8%

    That's a very interesting idea. I'd like to see something like that.
     
    #67 durvasa, Jul 7, 2006
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Two reasons why we should be weary of Hayes's per minute stats. I just want to repeat it, to be clear that I recognize them as valid points:

    • He played most of his minutes against the opposing team's reserves
    • The better he played in a given game, the more playing time he got; so if given consistent minutes his per minute production may not be as good

    Considering these two points, I think it's likely Hayes's per minute stats (like PER) would decrease if he got consistent minutes playing against the opposing team's better players. What I'm saying is that (1) I think it probably would not dip as low as Howard's stats, and (2) Hayes's value has less to do with his box score stats than a Juwan Howard, because of all the intangibles he brings.
     
    #68 durvasa, Jul 7, 2006
  9. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    Here's the Rockets player pair stats back in 04-05

    http://www.82games.com/0405HOUP.HTM

    Back then, Juwan Howard and Mo Taylor both had negative stats while guys like Padgett, Bowen, and even Spoon had positive ones.

    Now we clearly know Padgett, Bowen, and Spoon are NOT 30+mpg guys. They just thrived in spot minutes. Chuck, I think, is a cut above these guys and I'd like to see him get a chance.

    Also, what this shows, to me at least is that the Rockets seems to thrive with the "specialsit" 4-man (either a rebounding specialists or a 3pt shooting specialist) than they do with the Juwan/MoTaylor/Stro style guy who shoots midragne Js, has a decent post game and relatively below average rebounding and defensive games. The good 18 footer that Juwan, Mo, and Stro shoots just doen't contribute that much to the team.

    Anyhow, my guess about the 4-spot is that Juwan will be shopped heavily this summer or early next season if Hayes/Battier/Novak proves to be viable. Heck, it wouldn't have suprised me much if they had traded Juwan live at the Draft Party.
     
    #69 Van Gundier, Jul 7, 2006
  10. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I'd like to see that as well. Let's hope Novak plays good enough to give it a try. We have a much better feel for Hayes, obviously.

    Nice post, richirich.
     
    #70 Deckard, Jul 7, 2006
  11. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    A couple more thoughts:

    1. Juwan Howard for Marko Jaric seems to make some sense as a trade if the Rockets signs Mikey Jameschise. Jaric is a 6'7'' guy with the ability to run the point and defend the SG, he'd make up for the lack of backcourt height.

    Juwan, on the other hand, can probably provide some consistency over in Minny and help KG out.

    Jaric's contract is for 5 more years, but he's still just 28 and is about as good as you can get for Juwan's contract.

    2. While I would expect to see more of Chuck in the coming season, I wouldn't criticise Van Gundy for not playing Chuck enough last year given the fact that Chuck was an undrafted rookie free agent signed mid-season and there were $11 million worth of veteran centers on the roster before him. Even the 13-14 mpg that Chuck averaged was pretty significant minutes for a rookie, let alone a mid-year signing undrafted rookie free agent (just ask Antoine Wright about his playing time). It takes a little time for any NBA coach to learn to trust a rookie.

    I really liked the Battier trade partly because Chuck will get to take some of Stro's minutes. Stro was as bad a fit for this team as Juwan and Mo before him.
     
    #71 Van Gundier, Jul 7, 2006
  12. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    Rockets need to give Hayes a reasonable contract extension beforebseason's end, then hope he continues improving substantially. Some nice free agents next free agency, he'll make good trade fodder.
     
    #72 hooroo, Jul 7, 2006
  13. BigM

    BigM Contributing Member

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    screw you and your "statistics". ;) j/k i just based that on what i felt watching the games last year. considering chuck will almost definitely get action then last year i sure hope he's better with more playing time. if his conditioning improves to the point where he's high energy every second out there then he's going to be GREAT.
     
    #73 BigM, Jul 7, 2006
  14. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Good, reasoned post. I'm not on the Hayes bandwagon like you, but since he was a rookie last year and supposedly worked hard this summer, Hayes could be up for a very surprising year. He could make a big jump in effectiveness that could offset playing more minutes against better players. Last summer he was a complete scrub and turned out to be a keeper. Who knows what this season could hold? Hayes will never be much of an offensive player but all we need from him is effective rotation play.
     
    #74 A_3PO, Jul 7, 2006
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    In trying to adjust for the fact that Hayes was awarded more minutes in games he was playing well, I do the following:

    First, I only look at the middle 75% of their games, ordered by minutes played. Then, I prorate their box score stats to 30 minutes. This takes care of the fact Hayes gets more minutes when he's playing better -- each game's performance is on an even playing field, assuming minutes played fall within the 75% interval.

    In using this as a projection for what Hayes might do playing 30 minutes a night, two assumptions are made: (1) minutes played has negligible impact on performance for Hayes, which may or may not be true, and (2) Hayes can sustain the same level of productivity against better competition, because his numbers are based on what he did mainly against reserves.

    I think the first assumption is valid -- actually John Hollinger has said he's done a study that showed player's tend to perform better as they get more playing time. Hayes has been working mostly on his stamina in the offseason, and maybe more playing time will get him into a better comfort level and he will perform better as a result. The second assumption is likely false, however. How much Chuck's performance will degrade as a result of playing against better competition is difficult to estimate, however. 10% maybe? Perhaps more?

    Anyways, in the middle 30 games (75%) for Hayes, the mean GS/30min rating was 9.1. For Howard (middle 60 games), the mean GS/30min rating was only 7.0. So, if Hayes can sustain his performance for longer minutes (I think it's quite possible) and against better competition (less likely), his statistical production can be expected to be significantly better than Howard's. Even if we assume those two assumptions are false, Hayes's stats would have to degrade by nearly 25% for them to be as poor as Juwan's.
     
    #75 durvasa, Jul 7, 2006
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2006
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