Chronic: Time to make the Rockets' FA shopping list

If it's been posted, please delete.

http://blogs.chron.com/nba/2008/05/time_to_make_the_rockets_fa_sh.html

I thought this would be easy.

Shows what I know.

It also shows how difficult it will be for the Rockets to predict what they can get done this off-season.

The idea was that I would just offer what I thought the Rockets should do, and maybe toss out a few of the choices - shooter or ball-handler, point guard or small forward. After that, they have to get it done. I'd get the easy part.

It turns out it was not so easy.

When you look at the free agent lists and take out the impossible dreams, the choices are not that great.

Still, the Rockets have shortcomings and free agent shopping is coming. As long as they are getting ready and making decisions, we should, too.

They do plan to build around Yao and McGrady and made that very clear. They want to keep the defensive mentality that has generally worked for them. They will kind of, sort of going into luxury tax territory, but not by much and not unless the player that pushes them there is worth not just his contract, but the potential tax hit.

The Rockets go in with three areas to address: upgrade the point, get a backup two/three that can score either with outstanding shooting range or the ability to create and draw fouls, and a backup center if Dikembe Mutombo retires.

Upgrading the starting point has gotten more difficult with Rafer Alston having his best season with the Rockets, especially defensively. But Alston proved indispensable by the post season and he should not have been that central to their chances. The Rockets still think Aaron Brooks will develop into a weapon, but they cannot consider him the only point guard with Alston they need. Bobby Jackson will likely continue to run hot and cold and is a short-timer with them anyway. Steve Francis is back from his Arizona rehab on his knee and is determined to make it back to the court, but the Rockets cannot assume he will be the answer.

Mutombo's time might seem to have come, but he offers help at a low price, accepts a diminished role and could allow the Rockets to take time to fill that job while working on other areas. Also, big men are usually overpriced. If the Rockets spend too much for a Yao backup, they won't have it to spend on a player that would get more playing time for the same money.

That's why the backup two/three offers the best combination of need and possible.

With all that in mind, there are several categories to consider.

Start with the impossible dreams. Gilbert Arenas and Baron Davis, should they opt out, will get big money, far beyond the reach of the Rockets' mid-level exception. There are other keep dreaming types. You can probably rule them out, too. It's like the Rockets' offering Rashard Lewis mid-level exception last year while the Magic offered $119 million. Pretty tough choice there, but Rashard went with the $119 mil.

Then there's the too restricted free agents, the guys whose teams will happily match anything the Rockets likely could or would offer. Scratch Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Andre Iguodala, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng and probably Louis Williams. A lot of those fall under the keep dreaming category.

Move on. Nothing to see here.

Next, we come to my brilliant idea. Then that fell through, too.

I thought, call the bluff. Offer someone mid-level money, full years, full raises, and see if their team would match. The time had come, it seemed, to spend it all on one guy. A full mid-level with full raises will be worth about $33 million over five years, and that's where I probably messed up.

The Rockets have finally gotten rid of the last connection to their bloated contract years when they traded Mike James.

If a contract offered to a restricted free agent is so outrageous that a team won't match it, the Rockets likely would not offer it, either.

In other words, would you give that kind of commitment to J.R. Smith? The guy can really shoot, and with all kinds of range. He is a terrific athlete. But I can't see giving him a five-year deal. Big money for short years would be an interesting gamble, but unless the Nuggets decide it's time for an austerity plan, they would likely match a short contract.

I'm not sure you would make that kind of commitment to Ron Artest. On ability, he is worth that and more. But give him five years and eventually, he will give you some big-time headaches. For a short time, his talent would be irresistible. And since everything we've heard lately is that he will not opt out, anyway, he might be a trade target for a lot of contenders willing to give it a try before committing to anything longer.

There is a notion out there that Rick Adelman made it work with Artest before and therefore would try again. But there are those in Sacramento (and Indiana and Chicago) who believe that once you go on that ride, you don't go back. Either way, I think he will stick it out in Sac a bit longer.

Then there is the Corey Maggette option. This one is also a tough call. He would bring the Rockets a quality they lack and need, big time. Maggette is among the best in the league at drawing fouls and he makes his free throws. The Rockets have lacked that for years. It's a huge void, with Yao much more effective when teams are over the limit. As a sixth man, Maggette can get his points without McGrady or Yao to set him up, something the Rockets' bench has not been able to do with any consistency and often, not at all.

The problem is that Maggette likes to get his points without anyone setting him up. Adelman likes players to run the offense, to go through the options and think on their feet to make one another better. Maggette basically does it on his own while everyone else gets out of the way. And for a guy that can get in the paint regularly, drive and kick is not part of his game. He can be indifferent to defense. He has not been very durable. There is a lot of Clipper in him.

Still, if he signs up for a sixth man role, and takes the initial pay cut of a mid-level contract, he brings size and scoring the Rockets need at the position. And again, drawing fouls is huge for a team with an 85 percent (free throw) shooting, 7-6 center.

After that, you are talking about some very different names.

Gordan Giricek is not the defender. Trevor Ariza has the length and athleticism, but not the shot, and if they are building around Yao, the shot is still crucial. James Jones has some size and a shot, if perhaps not the shot he showed for a few months last season, but not much else. (I think he goes back to Portland, anyway.)

Bring back Boki Nachbar? His shot improved the way the Rockets expected when they drafted him, but he still has trouble matching up with twos and quick threes. The Nets used him as a range-shooting four, but there are not a lot of those minutes for him as a four here. Tony Allen is interesting, though not a 3-point shooter. Before the knee injury, he was a strong defender and he could be a guy that is better in the second year after surgery than the first.

Michael Finley? Brent Barry? Roger Mason? I like Finley as a guy that can bring the shot and experience and defensive determination, but I think he would be like Barry when the Rockets chased him after he was bought out by Seattle. He might listen, but I would not think they'd get him if the Spurs are still an option.

Sasha Vujacic would be a good fit, but will likely remain a Laker.

I do kind of like Carlos Delfino. It hasn't happened for him yet, but he has some size and plays hard. I thought he'd hit a higher percentage than he has so far, but he's at least worth considering. He is restricted, but after the Raptors spend on Calderon and Jamario Moon, he might not be too expensive to get.

Then there is Mickael Pietrus. He has some size. He can and will defend. He can knock down the occasional 3. He's not a borderline All-Star or that magical third guy in a Big Three that people want, but he would be a nice addition. And after the Warriors spend on Davis and Ellis, I can't imagine them getting too aggressive for Pietrus, who seems as if he would like to say goodbye to them, anyway. Matt Barnes and Kelenna Azubuike are interesting, too, but if Pietrus can accept a sixth man role, he would seem a good combination of the qualities the Rockets need.

One more thing: There are rumors about the Rockets' interest in Ramunas Siskauskas of Euroleague champion Moscow. He can shoot, is about 6-5, maybe 6-6, and is a savvy scorer. He is sort of a Luis Scola of a guard, not much of an athlete but gets everything out of his physical ability he can. He won't come cheaply, is already 30-years-old and the Rockets need an athlete. But go back to the first words. He can shoot.

The more I think about it, the more this option is growing on me. The problem is that it would just be a start to the off-season work needed. The Rockets would still need to work on the point guard spot and still need a perimeter athlete. And if they go well past the luxury tax in the summer, they might have more trouble making the sort of trade that can give them more of the help they need than the free agent options, especially when it comes to using that $2.4 million trade completion exception they have.

Still, if they believe the Yao/McGrady foundation is solid, they need to build on it as confidently. The free agent period does not have to be the end of the re-tooling around Yao and McGrady. The bigger, better addition is more likely to come with a trade. (Keep those Mike Miller dreams alive, but the Grizzlies are not likely to let themselves get fleeced again. Rudy Fernandez? Also in the keep dreaming category). But this can be a good and important start.

So after all that, I'm pointing at Maggette. In order, Maggette, Pietrus, Siskauskas. Then again, it's a long way to July. I imagine I'll change my mind a few times by then. And to think, I thought it would be easy.