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Chris Paul To Opt Out; Become Free Agent

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by DonKnock, Jun 23, 2017.

  1. Pat

    Pat Contributing Member
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    Somebody help me out. Did Harden and Paul play on the same Olympic team, with D'antoni as an assistant coach?
     
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  2. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Depends on whether his wife likes churros.
     
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  3. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Also... How big does Paul want his wife to get?
     
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  4. davidio840

    davidio840 Contributing Member

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    If he came here, would we still consider him the biggest flopper in the league and b**** about how many times he flops?
     
  5. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    I'll say this, we already became a VERY whiny team last year after adding Gordon. Adding Paul would take that to a whole new level. Every call will be whined about. The players on the court will reflect the game threads.
     
  6. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    https://theringer.com/nba-free-agency-blake-griffin-paul-george-spurs-83e7a97d1cf0

    Then there’s Griffin. The sense I’ve gotten over the past month from chatting with agents and front-office executives is that it would be shocking if the Clippers offered Griffin the full five-year max contract, valued around $170 million. The Clippers’ caution would be understandable. Griffin has been hampered by an endless list of injuries over his career. Offering all that guaranteed money would be a monumental investment carrying tremendous risk. If the Clippers don’t go to five years, the door opens for teams willing to offer the four-year max, which is worth roughly $128 million. Teams could be even more comfortable offering Griffin a max deal with options for the third or fourth season, or a four-year deal at a value lower than the max. Griffin will have to choose between lifestyle, long-term security, or a winning situation — or some combination of the three — in a place like Miami or Boston. The bottom line is that it’s not a certainty that Griffin returns to the Clippers. Lob City could officially die.

    The Spurs and Rockets are expected to make a run at Paul, which could be a leverage play by Paul’s reps for Paul to demand a no-trade clause from the Clippers. To sign Paul, the Spurs would have to create cap space, which began with Pau Gasol opting out and could end with a trade involving LaMarcus Aldridge. The Rockets would have to take the same salary-shifting measures. Either way, the Spurs and Rockets can offer him a better chance at taking down the Warriors than the Clippers.
     
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  7. Daddy Long Legs

    Daddy Long Legs H- Town Harden

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    Boom
     
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  8. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    It would be devastating to once again lose a premier free agent race to the Spurs. It is single-handedly preventing us from advancing further in the goal of contention.

    Aldridge may not have been that great for the Spurs this year, but he shredded us as usual for a couple of games in the playoffs. Would be nice to have him playing at Toyota Center 41 times wearing a Rockets' uniform.
     
  9. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Contributing Member

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  10. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    let's hope morey doesn't prematurely ejectulate one of our contracts again like when he burnt a 1st rounder to dump lin
     
  11. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    He may have no other choice, with Ryan Anderson as the principal player being traded.
     
  12. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...antonio-spurs-houston-rockets-la-clippers-nba

    tl;dr:
    Ranking the outcomes
    If Paul's decision comes down solely to the ability to compete for a championship next season, I'd rank the Spurs as the top pick, with the Rockets as an alternative, followed by the Clippers.

    But more than that will go into where Paul signs, however, including money and quality of life. And in basketball terms, going to Houston would mean deciding he'd be happy sharing lead ballhandling duties with James Harden, just as he has to factor in how he feels about joining an established team in San Antonio or staying with the Clippers for another run.

    Additionally, if Paul looks ahead to 2018-19, the Clippers surely offer him the best chance to eventually team up with his close friend LeBron James. Those are all factors Paul will have to weigh as he decides where to sign this summer.

    If Chris Paul wants the best chance of competing with the Golden State Warriors next season and beyond, where should he sign as a free agent this summer?

    ESPN reported on Friday that Paul and teammate Blake Griffin have notified the LA Clippers that they plan to decline their 2017-18 player options and become unrestricted free agents. That doesn't necessarily mean they intend to leave -- they can make far more money next season simply by re-signing with the Clippers as free agents -- but it gives Paul the opportunity to look around.

    I've already taken a look at how the San Antonio Spurs could make room for Paul and how they might project with him at point guard. Now, with the Houston Rockets reportedly planning a run at Paul, let's run through the same exercise with the Rockets and project how the Clippers might look with and without Blake Griffin.

    CP3 and the team that loves 3s
    Like the Spurs, Houston has a complicated path to clearing enough cap space to make Paul a max offer. That has never deterred Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Houston has reportedly explored trading guard Patrick Beverley and forward Ryan Anderson to create additional room.

    If the Rockets deal Anderson and Beverley without taking any salary back, waive non-guaranteed Isaiah Taylor and Kyle Wiltjer and renounce their free agents, they'd get to a little shy of $34 million in cap space, based on the league's current $99 million cap projection. That would be within shouting distance of Paul's projected $34.7 million max salary. (Trading Lou Williams instead of Beverley would likely get Houston all the way there.)

    Although the Rockets would still have the $4.2 million room midlevel exception to try to add frontcourt depth, those moves would give them a guard-heavy rotation that looks like this:

    Rockets' RPM projections
    Player__________MPG___Offense__Defense
    Chris Paul_______31_____3.9______2.1
    James Harden_____36_____4.8_____-1.0
    Trevor Ariza_____34____-0.3______0.7
    Sam Dekker_______28_____0.6_____-1.1
    Clint Capela_____28____-0.5______1.5
    Louis Williams___28_____2.2_____-1.8
    Eric Gordon______30_____1.1_____-0.4
    Montrezl Harrell_20____-1.7_____-0.4
    Chinanu Onuaku____3____-0.9_____-0.1
    Replacement______19____-1.7_____-0.4
    Total___________________6.1_____-0.2

    Based on 2017-18 projections for ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), this version of the Rockets would be about average on defense (as last season) and predictably elite on offense. Those ratings translate to a projection of 55 wins, which might not sound like much, given that Houston won the same number of games in 2016-17. However, remember that these projections are designed to be conservative, so no team besides Golden State was projected for more than 54 wins in 2016-17.

    The Rockets would also have the opportunity to improve as they continue to fill out their roster. Regardless, they wouldn't likely be able to match the 62 wins forecast for the Spurs with Paul.

    The question is whether Houston might match up better with the Warriors in the playoffs. Paul would be a good matchup for Stephen Curry at point guard, and Trevor Ariza is capable of defending Kevin Durant, with James Harden presumably hiding on Golden State's weakest offensive threat. Still, the Rockets are one capable defender short of an ideal fivesome to face the Warriors in crunch time.

    What if Paul re-signs with the Clippers?
    Now it's time to compare the alternatives to the status quo: Paul returning to the Clippers, the only team that can offer him a five-year contract worth an estimated $43 million annually.

    If both Paul and Griffin come back, the Clippers will probably have a relatively quiet summer. Although shooting guard J.J. Redick is also an unrestricted free agent and doesn't seem likely to return, the Clippers could bring back most of their other free agents and have a roster similar to last season's. Pending their adding another shooting guard with their room midlevel exception, here's how that roster would project.

    Amazingly, with weak offensive players picking up so many of the minutes played by Redick (plus-0.8 offensive rating), the Clippers would project much better on defense than on offense with a similar group minus Redick. Overall, RPM would forecast around 47 wins, four fewer than last season, which was already the lowest total for the Clippers since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 campaign. Based on that, it's easy to see why Paul might consider a move, despite the financial benefits to re-signing.

    What if Griffin leaves?
    Things get worse if Griffin decides to leave. Because of Paul's maximum cap hold, the Clippers would need to make trades to clear any appreciable cap space, even without Griffin on the books. Most likely, they would have to try to replace him using the $8.2 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception. (Both Griffin and Redick leaving would likely take the Clippers out of the luxury tax.)

    It's tough to say how such a team might look, but before adding a replacement power forward, RPM's baseline projection would be 43 wins and an offense 1.4 points per 100 possessions worse than league average.

    Although painful in the short term, Griffin's departure would potentially allow for a fascinating summer of 2018. Assuming DeAndre Jordan, as expected, declines his $24.1 million 2018-19 player option, the Clippers could clear about $35 million in cap space by waiving Jamal Crawford and stretching the $3 million guaranteed portion of his salary -- enough to offer LeBron James a max contract.

    If Wesley Johnson ($6.1 million) and Austin Rivers ($12.7 million) pick up their player options, the Clippers could potentially package them, Brice Johnson and their 2018 first-round pick to the New York Knicks for Carmelo Anthony if Anthony waives his 15 percent trade bonus. That would put the Clippers three-quarters of the way to the Banana Boat team, with Dwyane Wade an unrestricted free agent who could sign for their $4.3 million room midlevel exception.

    Granted, in this hypothetical, every other player on the roster would have to make the league minimum, but the Clippers could give the aging stars a chance to play together in a big market with warm weather.

    Ranking the outcomes
    If Paul's decision comes down solely to the ability to compete for a championship next season, I'd rank the Spurs as the top pick, with the Rockets as an alternative, followed by the Clippers.

    But more than that will go into where Paul signs, however, including money and quality of life. And in basketball terms, going to Houston would mean deciding he'd be happy sharing lead ballhandling duties with James Harden, just as he has to factor in how he feels about joining an established team in San Antonio or staying with the Clippers for another run.

    Additionally, if Paul looks ahead to 2018-19, the Clippers surely offer him the best chance to eventually team up with his close friend LeBron James. Those are all factors Paul will have to weigh as he decides where to sign this summer.
     
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  13. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    yeah, i mean hopefully he doesn't get played just for leverage by paul the way bosh played him last time
     
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  14. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    The Spurs certainly won't want LMA on the Rockets. They were mad when Luis turned out to be a good asset for us. The only player, that could get Aldridge here, would be Harden in a trade, and that is out of the question. Pops would almost certainly think about acquiring James, despite his Game 6 flame out.
     
  15. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

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    I think he means that FA year not via trade.
     
  16. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    Ok, I got it. Thanks.
     
  17. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    I think Blake wants the max from the Clippers, whether Paul stays there or not. If Paul leaves, then he is less likely to get it. I hope Blake will come to Houston. Capela on D, will look good along with them.
     
  18. DaGreatest

    DaGreatest Member

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    Whiney like most court and here? Foh
     
  19. Mr. Dominant

    Mr. Dominant Contributing Member

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    100% between Spurs and Rockets.... or he joins Lebron in Cleveland.

    Book it.

    I would love to see a Blake/Capela combo on the court as well.
     

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