It's predictable to say that Harden is trying to do too much & Lin too little. But it goes deeper than that. A lot deeper. Conventional wisdom is that Lin is not being aggressive enough and Harden is trying to hard to force the ball to the hole. What's interesting is to compare the shots per games during the last 9 games versus the prior 12 going back to the NYK games 2 pt shots Lin Last 9: 2.9 for 7.3 (39%) Prior 12: 4.8 for 6.9 (69%) 3 pt shots Lin Last 9: 0.7 for 2.7 (26%) Prior 12: 1.2 for 4.7 (25%) 2 pt shots Harden Last 9: 5.6 for 12.2 (45%) Prior 12: 6.6 for 12.5 (53%) 3 pt shots Harden Last 9: 1.6 for 7.0 (22%) Prior 12: 2.1 for 5.1 (41%) It's interesting to see that the 2 point shots haven't changed in frequency, just in efficiency. Seems both of the guys are struggling to get interior and score as efficiently. More intriguing is that Lin is definitely taking less 3's and Harden more - and Harden is shooting pretty poorly from the outside. But here's the stat that really was a wake up call Lin TO Last 9: 2.1 Prior 12: 4 Harden TO Last 9: 5.1 Prior 12: 2.6 Lin has dramatically cut down on his turnovers while Harden's has increased. Meanwhile Lin assists have dropped by 3 per game and Harden has stayed about the same. What this says is this: Harden is handling the ball a lot more, and isn't necessarily getting his teammates involved. He is shooting more 3's and turning the ball over more and scoring a lot less while playing more minutes. Lin on the other hand, is still taking the ball to the hole, but he is passing the ball for assists a lot lot less. He's cut down on his jump shots as well. He's playing more conservatively...taking less risks with the ball. Problem is, it's hurting the team because his teammates are getting set-up for less easy buckets. Seems pretty clear that Lin needs to look to penetrate and dish a lot more - even if it leads to more turnovers. And Harden needs to handle the ball less. A lot less. Lin is clearly a superior point guard at this stage, and Harden is the superior scorer. Lin should have the balls in his hands more and not pass it off so early but look to get assists (not just pass it 10 feet to a perimeter guy)....and Harden should get the ball more as a set-up 3 point shooter or when the defense has been brooken down a bit. But Harden is not making 3's when he has the ball more - meaning he might be a better set-up shooter than an off the dribble type.
"Seems pretty clear that Lin needs to look to penetrate and dish a lot more " You have to play point guard to achieve that. =)
Great analysis. But I didn't get the TO numbers. They said something else while you implied something differently.
It seems Lin and the team does really well when he has high turnovers. Funny how that works. Consequently Harden's TOs go down when Lin has more turnovers. This is telling me that Lin should handle the ball more than he is currently doing as that is what led to more wins.
For people too lazy to read: Lin needs to handle the ball, not Harden. Surprise? I think it's pathetic how they pay this kid 25 million and refuse to allow him to do his job he was brought in to do, WHICH IS PLAY PG.
I would agree that Lin recklessly driving to the hoop come hell or high water and taking the the hit in efficiency might actually help the team overall a la Westbrook, but he's already enormously inefficient while playing conservatively, so it seems we're stuck with Harden trying to lift the team up by himself until we play better players or our players improve.
I disagree. He said that Lin's TOs are down not because he's playing better but because he's playing more conservatively. Notice his assists have gone down as well.
I interpret it to be that Lin is being way to timid. We're better off with him being reckless and free than him trying to make careful passes and restrain his game. I don't know where that is coming from. Is it him? Is it the coaching staff? I don't know. but wherever it's coming from - it needs to change soon. I really think Lin is the key here. Harden needs help. He can't do it alone. Lin needs to step up and play with some real moxie.
My main problem with Lin is he is very hesitant...even when he has the ball in his hand, he drives in and gets stuck and instead of just taking the easy shot he passes it off. I'm not saying he should get more touches, more like he should do something with the touches he gets. He seems way to hesitant; as though he is scared to mess up. Also recently it seems to me Lin is having a difficult time beating his man off the dribble even with a pick. Hardens hero ball isn't helping either; its hard to blame all the problems of this team on one person. Hoping for a turn around soon. I unlike some know that the Lin+Harden experiment is gonna be more then a one season thing. Both are young and both will learn and hopefully.
Asissts are down because players cant buy a bucket, well at least thats part of the problem. Lin definitely needs to be more..."reckless" I would say.
Could be just a matchup problem. The last 9 teams are better at neutralizing Lin's talents, or they've adjusted - forcing McHale to utilize Lin differently.
lol people criticized Lins TOs all the time, but even in NY when he had high turnover rates they weren't any different then other top tier PGs on a lot of nights. He was still helping the team to win. The difference was the scrutiny that Lin was put under in NY and now in Houston. But with his high TOs, he had high usage rates, and he still put up points and assists. His 3pt shot was enough to be respectable by the defense. Could be a combo of coaching and Lin just not having confidence in himself. If it isn't the coaching(which I highly doubt it is), Lin just needs to step up and not hand the ball off, and picks need to be set. His TO's might rise, but his production would as well. Looking at these numbers when Harden has TOs, your not getting the team involved at all. Put the ball in his hands more, Lin's TOs might rise again but at least hes playing in a flow and his confidence will come back along with more assists.
Yes, during Linsanity, critics latched onto the high TO's as the only thing they could really criticize in the middle of the run. But what they conveniently ignored was that the Knicks's total TO's decreased as as result of Lin's TO's increasing. Counter intuitive as it may be, Lin shouldered the playmaking and accumulated the TO's, but when he was off the floor, the entire Knick's team's TO's increased. So the choice for D'Antoni was: 1) Lin takes over the ballhandling, playmaking, and running the offense. His TO's increase. Knicks's overall TO's decrease. 2) Take Lin off the floor, or take him out of the ball-handling role, or have him play conservatively. Lin's TO's decrease. Knicks's overall TO's increased. This counter-intuitive principle was something that critics during Linsanity ignored when they only pointed to his high TO's. The team's overall TO's decreased as a result of Lin's personal TO's increasing. The Rockets have different personnel and system from the Linsanity Knicks, so I'm not sure how accurately that principle translates. Perhaps someone can put up stats for Lin's TO's vs. Team TO's for the minutes he's on the floor as the ballhandler and playmaker compared to Team TO's when Harden or someone else assumes the ballhandler role on the Rockets. It would be interesting to see if that counter-intuitive property from Linsanity carried over or not.
Haven't ppl been debating this all year long? Who should handle the ball? Who should spot up? Should it be Harden or Lin who is the primary playmaker/ball-handler? Durvasa even created a stat to look into who's a better playmaker. Some "LOF"s have been arguing for this since game 3 - but were shouted down as illogical LOFs. Does this minor statistical blip change that much about your perspective on who the primary ball-handler should be?
great analysis. problem is, once lin's turnovers go up - he gets benched. it's hard to stay aggressive when you're penalized for it. ppat's assessment is pretty revealing as to what's going on. “If you get down and someone wants to make plays to get us back in the game, that leads to excessive dribbling, trying to put the game on your shoulders,” Patrick Patterson said. “James is a great player. James is our best player, hands down. But we all try to make plays for ourselves and sometimes for our teammates when we should just pass the ball and set screens. to summarize - harden is by far the best player the rockets have. but putting the ball in his hands and forcing plays is counterproductive to the rockets' style of play. when the knicks played dallas last year, i remember lin had 3 turnovers in one quarter. he somehow stayed aggressive after that, and the knicks won. if that happened here, he'd have been benched the rest of the game.
Good point. Lin should be the PG and Harden the SG. I like the ball movement when Lin is passing the ball, and everyone contributes, remind me of Rubio passing the ball around in the Timberwolves game. Beautiful basketball.
