I will couch this analysis in terms of one question: "Does the team have a colorable argument that it could make the NBA finals". If so, the championship window is open. Right now, here's how I see the breakdown: Our Beloved Rockets: Yes. Is it likely, no. But we have the talent and the veterans to be able to make a run. More importantly, I think our window is just opening a crack and will be fully open starting next year and will stay open for 5-6 years. The current rotation players can be kept intact for at least 2 years after this and they have a shot to win it all. Starting next year, we will hold the 4 seed until Tim Duncan retires. Which means that we will face San Antonio in round 2 for the next 5-7 years. Holy Texas Shootout Batman. We better build our roster around beating SA. That means getting an athletic 4 is our number one priority (Calling Stromile, come in Stromile!). Spurs: 5-7 year window. Freaking spurs. Talent, Coaching, Front office. Damn. Suns: 2-3 year window based on Nash's health. They better win it all soon. I don't see any other steve nash's floating around the league, do you? Seattle: Not a contender this year. Can't beat the Spurs. Suns play the same game, but better. The future is murky given Allen's free agency. Dallas: Not a contender. See Seattle. Kings: Window closed 2 years ago. Were robbed. Now screwed. Need a superstar. Memphis: Not a contender. Lakers: Not a contender. I think they'll manage to get Kobe a running mate in the next 2 years. They'll be back Minny: Not a contender. Need an extreme makeover. KG < Duncan come playoff time, and that will never change. They need another star before they're a serious threat. Denver: Not a contender. A very talent pool that could develop into a contender, depending on whether Carmelo can become a star. The window won't open until 2007, at the earliest. =========== In the east, so long as shaq is still playing, it's Miami and Detroit. Indiana should return to contender status next year and the Cavs will probably reach true contender status in 2007. The rest of the east might as well be severed from the league.
Since we did well against the top teams, I think there is always a chance. The main thing that could stop us is thelack of playoffs experiences.
i agree that with this rotation of players we have about 2 more years before we have to find replacements. i also agree that an athletic 4 is priority #1 this summer. the 4 seed will be ours as long as TD is still playing. however, we won't play the spurs every year. some years, i'm sure the #3 seed will have a worse record than us. never the less we will end up playing them in the conference finals every year that we don't meet in the second round. prepare to start hating the spurs. we are about to start one hell of a rivalry.
Don't underestimate JVG's coaching abilities in the playoffs. In the past, his team often over-achieved in the playoffs and gives a higher seed a very tough time.
JVG took the injury riddled 1999 Knicks from the eighth seed to the NBA Finals, now it was in the East but still it cannot be overshadowed. And they gave the Spurs a darn good run for their money too. I would even go so far as to say that one less player getting injured and the Knicks would have won that finals series against Spurs as well as eclipsed our record sixth seed run.
I don't understand. If we hold the 4 seed and win, aren't we automatically matched with the winner of the 1v8 series? Is it even possible for us to face a #3 seed in the 2nd round if we are perpetually the 4 seed?
Thinking about matching up against the Spurs makes me ill. we desperately need an athletic 4. We also need to re-up with Mutumbo. He tends to do a nice job on Duncan. We also need to get a nasty muscle guy on the squad, to flatten Bowen when he tries his dirty tactics on Tmac, as he inevitably will.
I'm a little unclear how you rate the #3 and #4 seeds as non-contenders. Seattle has the talent and firepower. Its true that Ray's contract clouds their "window" but that can't be a factor. Anybody can get hurt or traded that changes NBA dynamics. Dallas has Dirk and he is young. I'm not sure how you don't give them a "window." The dude is a beast and has improved dramitically this season. I agree that they aren't favorites but they definately are contenders for years to come.
I don't think Seattle and Dallas have a colorable argument that they can beat the Spurs or Suns. Seattle and Dallas are both like the Suns, but not as good. I can break it down further. Seattle v SA: Seattle has no interior defense to stop Duncan. Seattle has no low post threat to make Seattle back off Lewis and Allen. I see no scenario under which they beat SA in a 7 game series. Seattle v. Suns: Seattle has no defense to stop Amare. Suns play run and gun better. Seattle plays a better brand of defense than the suns, but i have too much respect for the suns attack to think that it will matter. Dallas: despite some upgrades in the middle, same problems as Seattle. Dallas has a half court superstar in Novitski, which bodes well for them in the playoffs. But, they can't stop Duncan and Co and I don't see them outscoring SA or Suns. It may be with rose colored glasses, but I can see that the Rockets have at least a partial answer for SA. Yao and Mutumbo can help Howard with weak side defense on Duncan. (this is something that Dallas and Seattle simply cannot do). At times, Yao and Mutumbo can man up on Duncan, particularly in 4Q. Sura, Wesley and James can slow down Parker and Ginobli. The Spurs are clearly superior, but Tmac can score on them and Yao can get numbers on Mohhamed, Nesterovic and Duncan. We should lose to the Spurs, but at least we have some answers. Seattle and Dallas just don't. As for the Suns, they are a donut and juggernaut. I don't think we would beat them either, but we have the firepower to score on them and can slow them under Van Gundy's defense. They can't match up with Tmac and Yao. (Suns can match up with Seattle and, to a lesser degree, Dallas). As with Duncan, Yao and Mutumbo can help keep Amare under wraps. Our perimeter defense has a chance at slowing the Suns' 3 point attack. That's all I'm saying. Yao and Tmac present huge matchup problems, whereas Allen and Lewis don't so much, and Dallas is one threat short. Also, the Rockets play much better defense. I'm guessing that if asked, the Spurs and Suns would both rather face Dallas and SEattle than Houston. Houston has a chance of beating them in 7. The others don't.
I agree that Phoenix and San Antonio are better than Seattle and Dallas. However, to say they have no chance in a 7 game playoff is a bit of a stretch.
I'm not saying they have no chance, but I think it's substantially lower than Houston's chance. If I were to lay odds, I'd say that the Rox have a 15 or 10 percent chance of upsetting SA or PHX, and I'd only give 5% to Dallas and Seattle, at most.
Good analysis. I honestly think we have the 2nd best chance of going the the NBA Finals from the Western Conference behind Seattle. This has really been an exciting and transformative year for the Rockets!
Okay, that is your opinion based on subjectivity. As a Rox fan, I'd tend to agree with you but I doubt most "experts" would agree with you. (However, most experts are idiots) Seattle is too new on the scene to give much credibility...yet. But so are the Suns. However, Dallas has been solid and consistent for years. I'm not sure how you are so ready to hand it over to the Suns after a half a season. If Dallas clicks, they'll beat anybody on any day in any 7 game series. They are dangerous and Dirk keeps getting better. The problem for Dallas, is they just never found that magical "oomph" to push them over the ednge but they are damn close. It could happen at anytime. So I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them.
