Honestly I think Rockets FO is in an excellent position for this negotiation since they really don't mind a QO. QO saves tons of money (in luxury taxes) this year by having Capela on the cheap while they field a contending team. I don't think they will trade him mid-season if the team performs well. Next year the team is still in an great position to retain him simply by outbidding other teams with bird right. All the 'hurt feelings' in this summer's negotiations are nothing. It will be just about money. The worst that can happen to the team financially is to pay a full Max to retain a hopefully further improved Capela, and that isn't even bad overall given yet another year of discounted service. Furthermore, no one can predict the future, and a year from now, the team may find another youngster taking his role, Capela may regress, or the team may head to a different direction with unfortunate star injuries, etc. A one-year deal provides lots of flexibility. To Capela, taking the QO is a huge risk, and the potential gain is so limited over the current deal of $85-90M/5 years: At the very most he earns $15-20M more over 5 years by signing a Max after QO. On the bad side he may never earn a large contract in his career. I think he will end up taking this current offer, and it is also quite likely that Morey give it a very small token raise as a stepping stone into an agreement.
If he takes the QO, we are definitely going to look to shed anderson and get under the tax line this year. There would atleast be a benefit
I can't believe his agent is being hard. When Capela signs to that offer of 85 and he becomes a perennial All-Star every year. Don't we all think that the Rockets will re-negotiate another richer contract for Capela before expiration of the contract he signs this year. And god forbids, he becomes Shawn Bradley he is going to bank on the Rockets like Ryno. I'm quite sure, Capela's agent will not re-negotiate a contract for a Shawn Bradley type player. Hopefully when Melo decides, Capela will be Rockets, if not, we are getting hardball.
No, you'd have to offer Capela something like, oh, $15m per year if you were going to use the MLE. Oh wait...
look at IT clint. asked for the brinks truck. might be able to afford something from the ice cream truck. like you said, risking 80 million dollars for 15 is called being stupid, which hopefully means this is all negotiation. and also like you said, maybe we'd like the QO. i'm sure tillman's saying "oh no clint, don't save me all the money. i wanted to pay a lot of luxury tax." who knows, maybe cp3 gets more injured, golden state gets more dominant and we're looking at a minor rebuild and we're glad we're not tied into clint (and we still might be able to S&T him but i haven't learned how those rules work under the newer CBA).
You have a good rationale for your opinion, I respect it. My opinion differs with you on 2 points: 1) Capela had a breakout season every single season he has been with us. Literally, after every single summer, he outpaced expectations. This is a quality that 99% of NBA players don't have. For almost any other 23 year old, I would agree with you. I also agree it's unlikely he'll keep up the pace of improvement. But IMO it is highly likely he keeps up half this pace for a few more years overall, and that will make him a devastating player. He is already an excellent overall starter on any team even if we exaggerate and assume he will be totally unable to score on any other team. 2) Capela will be able to shoot. He was shooting 3's (albeit poorly) before he joined the NBA. His FT rate is improving every season. Draymond Green has hit 30% of his 3's for 2 consecutive championship seasons and is a piss poor scorer overall. Capela isn't less of a scorer than Draymond, I'm sure Capela will be able to hit 33% of his 3's in a couple of seasons. While it is important to ride the wave of the NBA, there are players who will succeed while being unconventional players anyway, and those players typically share the quality of immense work ethic, teamwork and desire to win. It is hard to improve your shooting while bulking up - Capela is done bulking up. His FT's, range and hook shot are likely to trend upward now. I would not bet a dollar against Capela hitting corner 3's within the next few years. IMO you have to give people credit where credit is due. If you deny Capela the fact that he works harder than anyone else in the offseason, you are not making a fair assessment. He is likely to improve more than other 4th year players based on his character.
You're assuming a free market. Teams are not willing to do it while he's restricted. Capela can become unrestricted and we need to take that risk seriously imo.
That's a LOT of money! Plus it's a pride thing (he's looking at Steve Adams like 'really? him? More than me? Nope. ') If he believes in himself he should hold out for more or bet on himself and take the QO.
Clearly we gave him the best offer in this semi free market restricted free agency. This is on Capela at this point.
Saw this yesterday and don't take what she says as verbatim. How does she know he was in there for meetings when usually agents are the ones discussing numbers. She uses the words, "it suggests"... She's spewing hot garbage and giving a hot take.
Not really. Look at his per 100 numbers and rebounds/blocks. We have to look at per 100 because his mpg change and the fact Pace changed between McHale and MDA. MDA vs McHale is also why you can't look at Points, regardless. For me, statswise, just like Jordan, I look at minutes in the early stages of these players, as a nod to the coach to know best. He's still not at real starter minutes, but he did take another jump...and the amazing playoffs vs KAT and Gobert, showing increasing stamina ... then Kerr being so concerned he changed his defense to stop Capela by putting Draymond in his pocket, and not letting Green roam, as a small-ball gambit that failed. Anyhoot, main point is is that if Capela can play a legit 34 minutes like Jordan did when he made his biggest statistical jump, it will be because Capela improved greatly to stay on the floor, and we are probably talking about 13+ rpg and close to 3 bpg. The points will just be a function of what the defense is trying to stop (ala GSW focusing disproportionately vs normal defense to keeping Capela off the alley-oops). His defense showed great improvement in the playoffs, that's for sure.
Have him take the QC and say you'll give him whatever max he wants next season and throw him 10mil under the table Next year we can rid ourselves of anderson and gordons contracts, sign Jimmy Buckets to like 30mil and then sign clint to a max with his bird right and you have yourself a big 4 or 5 with melo Dont know if that is how it works but I would pay him under the table to allow us a chance to sign one more star player next offseason before locking up all capspace between Cp3/Harden/Capela
Nope bro, (speaking in general) people need to print in their minds that we're not going to have cap space for a star next summer unless we literally only keep Harden and Paul on the roster, which isn't realistic obviously.
Give me one year of the Hungry and Bitter QO Capela over the not motivated and sulking 5 year 85 million Capela.
