Best/Worst Post Break Schedules

This backs up the assumption that Morey thinks Portland will fall out and Houston will be able to make the playoffs.

via HoopsWorld

Spoiler

How long until this turns into a tank vs playoffs thread? :grin:

 

FULL ARTICLE

Spoiler

The All-Star break is just one week away and teams are preparing for that final push towards the playoffs. For some, the post All-Star schedule will make it difficult for them to continue the success they are currently experience (example: Portland Trail Blazers). For others, a favorable schedule could mean a trip to the playoffs (example: Houston Rockets).

In determining a team's remaining strength of schedule the key factors to look at are games against teams above/below .500, games against projected playoff teams, number of home/road games, longest home/road stretches, and total number of back-to-back games.

For the purposes of this discussion both the Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Bobcats will be considered playoff teams because the race for the final spot in the East seems to change every day. Along with those two, the Celtics, HEAT, Bulls, Magic, Hawks, and Knicks are pretty close to locks to make the playoffs. The 76ers round out the east, even though a two-game losing streak could have them on the outside looking in.

Out west the playoff picture is currently pretty clear with the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks, Thunder, and Jazz in great shape to make it. The Nuggets should also make it, assuming they don't trade Carmelo Anthony, which is the latest news out of Denver. The last spot currently goes to Portland as they hold a one-game lead over Memphis.

League Averages after the Break:
Games Remaining: 26.3
Opponents over .500: 13
Opponents under .500: 13.3
Games against playoff teams: 14.9
Home games: 12.7
Road games: 12.7
Longest home stand: 4.1
Longest road trip: 4.2
Number of back-to-backs: 6.2

FAVORABLE SCHEDULES:

New Orleans Hornets (Games after break: 24)
The Hornets may have the most favorable schedule post break of any team in the league. Of their 24 remaining games only 11 are against playoff teams, the least amount of any team, and six of those games will be played in New Orleans. Even their five-game road trip at the beginning of March is favorable because they only face two teams playoff-bound in the Knicks and Bulls.

Furthermore, the Hornets have only four sets of back-to-back games, which is also below the league average of just over six. Follow that up with a pair of five-game home stands and it's conceivable the Hornets could repeat their success from 2007, when they used a strong close to the season to earn the two-seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

Miami HEAT (Games after break: 26)
It's hard to imagine the HEAT could be even better after the break, but a look at their schedule is proof they may have the upper hand in the race for the top seed in the East. The HEAT play 16 of their 26 games after the break at home, the most in the league.

They may be split down the middle on teams above and below .500 playing 13 of each, but of the 15 playoff teams they face, 11 of those games will be in Miami. Their four road games against playoff teams are tied for the least in the league and they only play five back-to-backs, which is below the league average. Add to that a long six-game homestand tied for the second-longest in the league, and it's safe to say the HEAT are going to challenge for the best record in the East.

Houston Rockets (Games after break: 25)
The Rockets have found themselves in a position to fight for that final playoff spot out West. They face only 10 teams with winning records and only 13 playoff teams. Of those 13, only five of them are on the road, two less than the league average. The Rockets also get a six-game homestand and their longest road trip is only three games.

Oklahoma City Thunder (Games after break: 28)
The Thunder has almost an identical schedule to the Rockets. They face 16 teams with losing records (15 for Houston), their longest homestand is six games (same as Houston), and they play 14 teams that are currently heading to the playoffs (13 for Houston).

The big difference between Houston and Oklahoma City though, is the Thunder is one of the elite teams in the league. While the Rockets are hoping to use the soft schedule to make the playoffs, the Thunder are hoping it can push them into one the top spots in the West.

New Jersey Nets (Games after break: 25)
Through 53 games the Nets have only won 16, but things could get a lot better after the break. Of the Nets 25 post-break games only nine of them are against teams with a record above .500, tied for least in the league. They are also facing only 12 playoff teams and three of those teams - the 76ers, Pacers and Bobcats - have records under .500. Throw in the fact their longest road trip is only three games and it's possible the Nets could win almost as many games after the break as they did before it.

Cleveland Cavaliers (Games after break 26)
This may come off as a joke, but the Cleveland Cavaliers, owners of the longest losing streak in the history of the NBA, actually have a pretty favorable schedule after the break. It is of course unlikely they can rebound from one of the poorest first halfs in history, but the Cavs could put together a couple of wins and take away something positive from the season.

Of their 26 post break games they play 15 at home and face only 11 teams with winning records. They also have a nice five-game homestand that includes New Jersey and Detroit, and their longest road trip is only three games. The schedule is in the Cavs favor and it's pretty obvious the fans, as well the team, could use a couple of wins to close out the season.

Honorable Mentions:

New York Knicks (Games after break: 28)
The Knicks' schedule is pretty average compared to the rest of the league. They play eight back-to-backs, they play 16 playoff teams, and their longest homestand is only four games. However, they do play the Cleveland Cavaliers three times. No other team in the league play's them more than twice, and unfortunately for Cavs fans that's significant. If the Cavs continue to play poorly, the Knicks can all but mark those games in the win column, which is something no other team can do.

Boston Celtics (Games after break: 28)
The Celtics are kind of a mixed bag because they play 17 road games, tied for most in the league, with only 11 games in Boston. However, they only face 10 teams with winning records and if the Celtics are to be considered the favorites in the East they should be able to handle the lesser teams in the league, regardless of whether it's on the road or at home.

UNFAVORABLE SCHEDULES:

Los Angeles Lakers (Games after break: 25)

The two-time defending champion Lakers are in for a brutal stretch of opponents after the break. The Lakers face 17 teams with winning records, tied for the most in the league, and 18 playoff teams, which is three more than the average team faces. They only square off against eight teams with losing records, and just to pile it on face eight playoff teams on the road.

There are some bright spots for the Lakers after the break though. They only have three back-to-backs and they own the league's longest homestand at seven games. That being said, no matter how good the Lakers are, facing 17 teams with winning records is going to be a challenge.

Portland Trail Blazers (Games after break: 26)
The Trail Blazers might have it even worse than the Lakers. The Blazers also face 17 teams with winning records, but they don't have the luxury of a long homestand like the Lakers do. Portland's longest home stand is only four games and they have to play in six back-to-backs as well as facing 19 playoff teams, the second-most in the league. The only advantage the Trail Blazers have over the Lakers is they get to face the Cavs once at home.

Phoenix Suns (Games after break: 28)
The Suns have one of the toughest travel schedules post break of any team in the league. They have 16 games on the road and have road trips lasting five and six games. They also have to play in six back-to-backs and face nine playoff teams on the road.

More than half of the teams the Suns face after the break have winning records and their longest home stand is a mere three games. Unfortunately for Steve Nash and the Suns, that final playoff spot in the west is looking like more and more of a long shot.

Atlanta Hawks (Games after break: 27)
The Atlanta Hawks face more playoff teams, 20, than any team in the league. As if that wasn't enough, the Hawks also have to play in seven back-to-backs and face only 11 teams with a losing record.

If the Hawks are going to hold onto their current seed in the East, or improve upon it, they are going to have to take advantage of their home schedule. They face 13 of those 20 playoff teams at home, the most of any team, and have home stands of six and four games.

Sacramento Kings (Games after break: 29)
The Kings are the only team in the league with three significant road trips after All-Star weekend. Immediately after the break the Kings hit the road for four games against three teams over .500. In March they have a five-game road trip that matches them up against three playoff teams. And they cap it all off with another four-game road trip in April.

The Kings 17 road games are tied for most in the league and their 16 games against teams with winning records is tied for second-most. Top it off with the Kings longest home stand only being three games, and also having to endure seven back-to-backs, and it's quite possible the Kings could fall all the way to the top of the lottery.

Honorable Mentions:

Chicago Bulls (Games after break 28)
The Bulls play in nine back-to-backs, the most in the league, and have 16 games away from Chicago.

Golden State Warriors (Games after break 27)
The Warriors have the league's longest road trip at seven games and only play 11 of their remaining 27 at home.

There is very little about the NBA that is decided by the All-Star break. Teams can rise and fall out of the playoffs with a week or two of excellent or poor play. Some teams may have a scheduling advantage, but in reality there are no easy games in the NBA. Whoever takes the top seeds in the East and West; it's fair to say they earned them.

 

Ariza and Okafor were out for both those games.