1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Best Rotation Ever?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by lnchan, May 7, 2018.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,800
    Likes Received:
    1,896
    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns

    This has record, estimated record based on run differential (Pythagorean), and estimated record based on quality of hits (Base Runs).
     
  2. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    8,615
    Likes Received:
    1,293
    Wouldnt this apply to the batting order? Certainly when walks, homers and such happen would change if the batting order did as well, yes?
     
  3. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    11,503
    Likes Received:
    6,901
    Teams don't build rosters based on how they expect games to play out, they do so expecting a certain amount of production from each player overall.

    The Astros expect Correa to hit x number of Home Runs, and yes you want to put the best guys in front of him to maximize those HR's. But when he hits those HR's is kind of random. That one he hit yesterday ended up being meaningless, but if he hits it in another game it could have been pivotal.
     
  4. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    8,615
    Likes Received:
    1,293
    So basically, we lose a lot of close games and score big in many of our wins. Basically the opposite of Texas winning all those close games a year or two back, and losing bad in a lot of loses.
     
    lnchan likes this.
  5. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    8,615
    Likes Received:
    1,293
    I bet there is a way using computer analysis, given what we know has happened to this point, and allow you to model the batting order in any sequence in order to generate the best overall outcome. Sequencing the events that have unfolded differently.

    Would be interesting to see what the computer came up with.
     
  6. raining threes

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    1,765
    Likes Received:
    522
    If only Richard hadn't had that stroke
     
    Houstunna likes this.
  7. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,800
    Likes Received:
    1,896
    Batting order affects it a little in that the earlier your better hitters hit, the more good things happen for you. A little sequencing in having guys that can drive ball after on base guys. That said, batting order matters less than most people think as most teams are batting their best 6 hitters in the top 6 spots generally with on base guys before RBI guys.

    In other words, most teams are good enough at setting a lineup that it cancels out.
     
    #47 Joe Joe, May 13, 2018
    Last edited: May 13, 2018
  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,800
    Likes Received:
    1,896
    Astros do this. Watching every game is this except when Hinch makes a change based on communicating with players (e.g. who's banged up, who is hungover).
     
  9. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    8,615
    Likes Received:
    1,293
    You think moving Bregman down had anything to do with this?
     
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    13,800
    Likes Received:
    1,896
    I think computer either said move him down or with the way the rest of team was playing that having Springer, Altuve, and Correa consecutive in lineup was better. I suspect Hinch probably over-rode the computer for a little bit though (complete speculation).
     
  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    8,615
    Likes Received:
    1,293
    [​IMG]

    "So Hinch, you asked about Jake Marisnick, WELL..."
     
  12. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2013
    Messages:
    18,393
    Likes Received:
    7,484
    Correa's HR yesterday wasn't meaningless, it was "clutch" due to close-and-late statistics -- within three runs, 7th inning or later. We don't know what would've happened if the game remained only a two run difference. One runner reaches base, then the tying run is at the plate.
     
    No Worries and bobrek like this.
  13. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2013
    Messages:
    18,393
    Likes Received:
    7,484
    Rangers "luck" quickly flipped once the playoffs began.

    It was beautiful
     
  14. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,798
    Likes Received:
    2,673
    Its pretty easy to look up the biggest pythagorean discrepancy seasons of all time... there's no real outliers there.

    Basically, it all evens out over 162 games.... and some of the playoffs if need be.
     
  15. bobrek

    bobrek Proud Mofo
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 1999
    Messages:
    23,754
    Likes Received:
    4,935
    I was going to post a similar comment. Extending a 2 run lead to 4 at any point in a game is 'clutch'.
     
    Houstunna likes this.
  16. lnchan

    lnchan Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,111
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    This rotation is ridiculous...
     
    houstonstime and craigharmann like this.
  17. conquistador#11

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    25,232
    Likes Received:
    3,416
    Not only that , but should a starter or two fall asleep in the shower and slip in the process, causing a short stint in the dl, McHugh or peacock can step in and not skip a beat. Granted a non serious
    Injury. :knocks on wood:
     
    Marteen likes this.
  18. killahflip

    killahflip Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2001
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    31
    this will rotation will even be better once we add Kershaw ;-)
     
  19. lnchan

    lnchan Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,111
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    We really don't need an upgrade on our 4th starter.
     
    Joshfast and houstonstime like this.
  20. killahflip

    killahflip Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2001
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    31
    what?? sorry you lost me. if you have a chance to add Kershaw you do it. that was the same logic why we added Verlander. Never settle is the motto isn't it?
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now