Just announced today Posted it here for relevance to Bagwell and Biggio. Bidge should get in this year (fingers crossed), but anyone think this may harm Baggy's shot?
Could help Baggy get in sooner. I think it is a good change, though I think it is ridiculous to grandfather a guy on his 10th ballot for another 5 years, but the guy on his 9th now only has one more chance.
I thought they only grandfathered the 3 guys lisited--the "least" of whom is in year 13. I'd like to see the list of who's on the cusp...are there guys at year 9 who are getting screwed? I don't mind, but it's rough I think it'll help Bagwell's chances by trimming the list quickly. If he doesn't make it now, he should have a good shot come year 6ish
Just those guys. Mcgwire is going into his 9th, and Raines into his 8th. Definitely could be harmful to Raines. 2015 is a tough ballot. Randy Johnson & Pedro Martinez figure to be first ballot. Biggio will hopefully get in on his 3rd try. John Smoltz will get strong consideration as well. 2016 brings Griffey, Wagner, and Hoffman. The closers will be on the ballot for years I'm guessing. It will represent a good chance to gain momentum, as the ballots certainly aren't as strong as they were in 2014 & 2015.
Not necessarily. A guy like Raines might be more likely to get in with the Era Committee (made of players, managers, and owners) than with the writers. Same might go for Bagwell.
Since he was so close this last time around, I have to think Biggio gets in on the next vote. I also think Bagwell ends up getting in sooner rather than later. The HOF vote is as much about sentiment as it is stats. There are several high-profile writers firmly in Bagwell's corner that make a habit of proselytizing on his behalf around the time of the vote each year and it just feels like his candidacy has gained momentum of late. Of course, I'm biased and that feeling is based on no hard information. As far as this rule change goes, you have to think that this is the HOF being proactive about the upcoming logjam that will be created by all the PED-era names on the ballot.
As long as people like Pete Rose and Barry Bonds are out while people like Gaylord Perry, John McGraw, and Ty Cobb are in, none of their changed induction rules matter. And if Jeff Bagwell doesn't get in, the "hall of fame" will have lost its last remaining shred of credibility.
Billy Wagner? I don't suspect he'll receive enough consideration to stay on the ballot after his first year. Am I way off on my appreciation for Billy Wagner? I think this helps Bagwell; it forces more urgent discussion, which is always a good thing. And Biggio going in raises Bagwell's profile, too, I'd think. They're attached together forever and an appreciation of Biggio's career will spill over into an appreciation for Bagwell (who's a more worthy candidate, anyway).
Wagner was a great closer...maybe one of the best all time. He'll get some votes and might get enough to hang around for a couple of years but he'll likely never get in.
He still was always pitching in the shadows of Rivera and Hoffman (and eventually Gagne). The lack of playoff saves (and frankly looking bad in the playoffs) hurts any closer's chances (as I firmly believe playoff success for a closer far outweighs the high save numbers they accumulate during the regular season). That and making an "ass" of himself on more than one occasion is enough for the writers to think twice about voting for him.
