[Back of the Napkin Calculation] Replacing Brewer with Lou

Cool analysis. Also on pure box minus stuff, the swap is worth about an extra five points per game in box score plus minus.

 

Sorry, per 100 possessions. Brewer is a -3 and Lou is a +2.5. 5 point swing per 100 possessions. (I'm aware that it doesn't work out exactly that way in actual games.)

 

Interesting... nice work.

But I can't help thinking our team offensive efficiency (and perhaps even Lou's) will markedly increase as a result of better spacing, ball movement, and diminished turnovers with Lou taking Brewer's minutes.

We all recall how frustrating it was watching the team play 4-on-5 with Brewer on the court.

 

Based on the Rockets averaging 103 possessions a game this would work out to be about a 1.6 ppg swing based on those plus minus numbers.

 

Ima beat it beat it beat it beat beat beat beat it beat beat beat beat I'm beating it

 

Gotta take the defensive end into account. Brewer, for all his faults that made me disgusted, was a defensive possession creator. In other words his steals and offensive fouls drawn and half his offensive rebounds were more than his turnovers. That means he actually got the team extra shots above his turnovers and helped offset some of Hardens turnover pile.

Lou, on the other hand, turns the ball over approximately one more time per game than his combined steals plus offensive charges drawn plus half his offensive rebounds. That means he actually costs the team a possession, or around a point a game.

Add that to your analysis.

Of course, we don't know what the dynamic of being in this offense will do to Lou's steals and turnovers but we will see for sure soon enough.
On the surface this looks like a great trade. I'm for it. I like Lou a lot as a player. But...........I doubt this solves our turnover problem with Harden. However I'm willing to wait and see for sure how well Lou fits here and what other transactions we make before giving a more firm opinion in where w are headed this post season.

 

If you run the ESPN trade machine on this, Rockets are +2 in Wins and Lakers lose 13 games

Haha

@Bobbythegreat posted the link in the trade thread

 

It's a good trade but not a perfect trade. It doesn't solve the team's biggest problems, but if you can't do that I'm not opposed to just upgrading talent and seeing what happens.

 

Magic wins lol

 

Also gives us greater trade flexibility. What if we could acquire a superstar for a Gordon/Ariza/Capela package? Paul George?

 

Right, I broke this down yesterday. There is literally no negative to the trade. Even the first round pick we lost is potentially better for us from a salary issue AND if we really want to we can probably recoup it by dealing Lou again during the draft.

As far trading for a superstar, I'm not a believer that it can be done. I don't think we have the right combination of players/assets.

 

that's one big napkin you've got.

 

Seems like every approach comes to the same conclusion. 1-2 extra wins over the season. That probably doesn't make a huge difference to us honestly unless the Spurs fall back a little bit. Really fascinating to watch the games to see what it may mean for playoff rotations.

 

I discount plus minus because it's a team game. Lou's plus minus effect on the Lakers isn't going to be replicated here while Brewers plus minus will probably move south significantly since he's playing on a lottery team that wants to lose.

 

Exactly.

Add to that other factors such as philosophy, system, personnel, chemistry, culture (winning vs. losing), etc. which all impact outcomes such as contested vs. defended shots, rebound rates, PnR efficiency, etc.

Sometimes the sum is greater than its parts (Rockets 2016-17).

Other times they are not (Rockets 2015-16).