Ah that's right, they were up 4 when Harden entered, but at the 9:57 mark. They actually built that lead while Harden sat, as he had previously left the game with 2:50 left and the game tied 77-77. Rockets outscored the Warriors 12-8 while he sat, with Paul getting 4 points, 2 assists and 0 turnovers in those 4 minutes. Curry had 5 points (1 of 3 from 3 plus 2 freethrows) until: 9:57- Rockets winning 89-85, Harden enters 9:46- Curry layup, 89-87 9:24- Paul jumpshot, 91-87 9:08- Livingston jumpshot, 91-89 8:49- Gordon jumpshot, 93-89 8:34- Curry 3pter, 93-92 8:21- Harden layup, 95-92 8:15- Harden fouls Curry 8:06- Paul fouls Livingston who hits 1 freethrow, 95-93 7:48- Harden turnover 7:44- Livingston layup off the turnover, 95-95 7:21- Paul mises a 2 7:04- Livingston misses a 2 6:43- Harden 2pter 97-95 6:31- Curry 2pter 97-97 a bunch of bricks on both sides until 3:42- Looney 2pter, Warriors lead 99-97 3:23- Gordon missed layup 3:09- Curry makes a 3, 102-97 2:47- Harden makes a 3, 102-100 2:24- Harden charge, turnover 2:08- Curry layup, 104-100 1:45- Paul layup, 104-102 1:28-Curry 3, 107-102 1:25- Harden turnover Pretty much over at that point, though he added 5 more points and a turnover after that. Maybe there's a tiny bit of hope with 1:25 left but Harden throws the lazy pass. Those last 2 Harden turnovers really hurt. So in that 8:30 stretch Harden had 7 points, 3 turnovers and was -9. So he didn't lay back, but he wasn't good. It's not Harden's "fault" for the defensive collapse, but he usually gets hidden on defense. Curry had 15 points and 0 turnovers in that same stretch (they entered at the same time).
They were down 3 points with 55 seconds left! All they needed was one stop, and they'd have had a chance to send the game to OT. You're really exaggering the depths of that situation. Curry was definitely better than Harden in that same stretch, but his Q4 pace had him on pace to score 92 points for the game! That's more about Curry than it is Harden.
The Rockets were very close to winning game 6, and honestly James Harden and Chris Paul were not the problem. The biggest issue was the complete lack of adjustments (that cost someone their job).
Well at that point the win probability is 7.26% for the Rockets. It's not completely over, but pretty much. https://live.numberfire.com/nba/24702 The final dagger was 5 points by Curry while Harden got 2 turnovers, although it was pretty much over before that turnover at 1:25.
that klay 3 was the dagger right after. im not sure what the rockets could of done differently tbh. he had cp3 and pj both contesting the shot. guys can always play good d but there's also guys that just make shots regardless. @Nook what do you think they could of done differently that maybe Jeff B would still be here?
Probability of overtime was a lot higher than 7.3%, though. Probably about double that, and then you cut it in half since OT is basically a 50/50 proposition. Point is: There's not a single NBA player in any game, let alone an elimination game in the playoffs, that isn't feeling pressure when a shot can make it a one-possession game with 1:00 left. You don't get to devalue the Harden points in that circumstance. Also, one of those Harden turnovers was the preposterous Draymond flop.
The Rockets made almost no defensive adjustments during the series against GS. The Warriors were able to set picks, sometimes 20 feet from the basket and we fell for it every single time. It allowed the Warriors to dictate when we would switch and it allowed the Warriors to get the match ups they wanted. All the Rockets had to do was not switch, even on some of the plays 20+ feet from the basket. The Warriors were toying with us defensively with the complete lack of adjustments. MDA deferred to Jeff B on the defensive end, but it isn't a shock he lost his job. There were literally no adjustments. The offense was not the problem (and why MDA still has a job). Jeff B will complain he never got the length at the 3/4 that his system thrives on, but the issues in the GS series were not entirely based on a lack of length at the 3/4.... they were on the adjustment end. The Rockets were not outclassed in the series. They could have easily won the series but they didn't and as good as Jeff B has been since coming over, there is zero excuse with the lack of adjustments. I can also tell you I know for a fact some of the veteran players were perplexed and not happy with the lack of adjustments.
it seemed to be the rockets tried to emulate defensively what worked a year ago with this team. obviously with the difference in personnel now, that posed the challenge in itself.
That silly idea is perpetuated ALL THE TIME on here, in a lot of threads. Harden "apologists" are usually just giving facts about what happend. I know Harden has his flaws but at the very least for this POs this loss All this stuff about Harden is just narrative non sense imo.
It goes further than that. Last year the Rockets did make some adjustments defensively..... it is my understanding that this year, in this series zero were made. It was a problem through out the series that was never addressed. The speculation I have heard is that Jeff B was distracted with issues outside his professional world.
Separately, it's a little misleading to use team plus/minus in a stretch that small as though it says much about Harden's performance on offense, considering Curry was on a pace that would have scored nearly 100 (!!!) if extrapolated over a full game. Curry's outburst and/or the culpability of Houston's defense in it was the clear leading storyline in that quarter. All that said, was Harden perfect? Of course not. He made mistakes, as did everyone on the floor not named Curry. But let's not move the goalposts. The point of what I was saying (and I think many others) is that Jackson was flat-out 100% wrong in what he said about Harden's aggression and the shooting of other Houston players on the court in that quarter. There's no way to spin it. Be mad all you want about the team, but don't defend Jackson over completely incorrect "analysis."
Rivers was right though. The system needs some variance. We also need some more length. This was a very winnable series and they let it slip away.
The win probability takes the possibility of overtime into account. Even if you add several percentage points because of Harden, it's still a situation teams rarely come back from.
Uh, I completely understand that it does. The point of this discussion is that you seem to be trying to devalue Harden's buckets once win probability fell beneath a certain threshold, when in reality simply getting it to overtime was and is a significant carrot. If you want to gauge the "pressure" of shots by a trailing team in the final minute, for example, the probability of getting to overtime is a more reliable indicator of the "pressure" at a given moment in time than win probability, IMO. P.S. Golden State's win probability was 13.5% earlier in the same period. Should we overlook the buckets they had at that point? Those percentages can and do get overcome.
Great insight from Austin Rivers. Harden's iso's work, but we can be at full throttle with a mix in of offense from movement across the floor.
It's not really about pressure or that it wasn't impressive shots, just that the game was decided earlier. Interestingly the warriors got to that low probability with CP3 running the offense. Then harden came back in. I can understand cp3 being upset. The harden bad pass followed by a Livingston fast break layup was a 7% loss in win probability by itself
