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Astros vs. Nationals World Series Odds

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Htown Stros, Oct 20, 2019.

  1. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    For all the other degenerate sports betters out there...anyone else find the Astros to win the series at -210 REALLY good value? Not saying it's guaranteed we are going to win - I recognize they have three great starters but I don't think those three are better than ours, I think they are equal at best. After that, the Nats have an AWFUL bullpen outside of Hudson and Doolittle with a slightly above average lineup.

    We started the playoffs at +200 and just went through two tougher teams IMO than Washington...just don't understand how we aren't bigger favorites even with us already being one of the biggest favorites ever. I feel like this is the easiest series ever to hedge and either profit significantly or lose a small amount. For example, If I went big on the Astros win the WS, whether they lose or win game one they will be big favorites again in game 2 (WAS is +175 on my book for game 1) and therefore I would have the opportunity to basically buy myself out of the bet if I wanted (e.g. if they are around +185 for game 2 I could just bet a significant bet on them that game and if they win it pretty much KOs us).

    Any experienced bettors (e.g. understanding how hedging works) here?

    Edit: Alternatively, the Nats are +700 to win in 6 and +700 to win in 7...also could hedge here and bet a small amount on both as let's be real they aren't going to just run through us...
     
  2. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    Last think I'll add is I feel like they are trying to get action on Houston - before the playoffs started Westgate said a LAD vs. HOU was their preferred matchup and I know it can't be good for them if WAS wins and people who were getting them at 50-1 a couple of months ago or even when the playoffs started they were 14-1 and we were 2-1...
     
    lw17 likes this.
  3. EddieWasSnubbed

    EddieWasSnubbed Contributing Member

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    If our hitters don't start finding holes, we may not take them to a game 6. We've been a little lucky to win games, as no one outside of Altuve and maybe Brantley are hitting the ball well.
     
  4. bleedroxred79

    bleedroxred79 Member

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    I only hedge when I play parlays with upsets. Hedging straight up doesn't pay enough IMO
     
  5. adoo

    adoo Member

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    It was HUGE that Astros clinched on game 6; this enables G Cole to start game 1 of WS w ample rest, at home.

    I’d start Greinke for game 2, saving a well-rested Verlander for game 3 at DC

    Hypothetical question,

    Should The Astro be up 3 games, do u think that Cole’d start for game 4 ?​
     
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  6. RustyHarden

    RustyHarden Member

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    Greinke will start game 3. Has more value hitting in their park

     
    #6 RustyHarden, Oct 20, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    NO NO NO. Y'all need to stop with this nonsense. Barring rain, the rotation will be Cole, Verlander, Greinke, Bullpen, Cole, Verlander, Greinke, no matter how the series plays out. There's no reason to change any of that. We're not starting worse pitchers earlier. We're not starting people on 3 days' rest just for the hell of it.
     
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  8. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast
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    Rotation is set up perfectly for the WS, not sure why you'd want to jack with it. Nats rotation is too, of course, should be fun.
     
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  9. Major

    Major Member

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    The flipside - their big 3 nullifies our big 3. Their #4 is better than us having to scrape through our whole bullpen. Their "slightly above average" lineup was actually 2nd in the NL only behind the Dodgers, and barely so - and they haven't been in a playoff slump of any sort. And after a 19-30 start or whatever, they have been on a 106 win pace for 4+ months - so for the last 4 months, they've been playing as well as the Astros have all season.

    I'm not saying the Nationals will win, but they are a credible opponent. Having to bet $2 to win less than $1 on the Astros is NOT good value, in my opinion.
     
  10. Major

    Major Member

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    Yup. I'd also probably add Miley or Framber or someone who can theoretically pitch a lot of innings in the bullpen game if we don't trust Rondon or Abreu. They just someone during that game to just eat innings so we don't run into the overuse the Yankees dealt with. That's where Sanchez has a nice edge being able to go 5 or 6 innings.
     
  11. RustyHarden

    RustyHarden Member

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    I trust Urquidy enough to give him game 4. Having Miley around wouldn't hurt either
     
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  12. Major

    Major Member

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    Yeah, I'd start with Urquidy and Peacock, but if one falters, it creates a mess (or if yesterday had gone to extras). We're avoiding using Rondon/Abreu at all costs anyway, so I'm thinking we might as well have an innings eater in there.
     
  13. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros 2017 Champions
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    You want Greinke pitching in the NL park for his bat, you want Verlander getting two home starts (if it gets to game 6) as you've seen him pitch much better at home vs. road in the playoffs. No short rest starts.
     
  14. PhiSlammaJamma

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    We are better than the Nationals at everything, including Scherzer and Strasburg. Aces over Kings, and that's literally the best they've got to offer and we still trump it. This is a cake walk. Push all in.
     
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  15. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros 2017 Champions
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    Let's go ahead and sweep to avoid another possible rainout...
     
  16. SemisolidSnake

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    There's probably no other MLB player in history that's a Cy Young, Gold Glove, AND Silver Slugger winner.
     
  17. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast
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    Valenzuela and Hershiser. They started the SS award in '80, so not that much history.
     
  18. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    I think the odds reflect that the Nats are historically hot and have surpassed their odds over the last month. And they may also reflect relatively cold Astros bats versus some hot pitching for the Nats.
     
  19. Hank McDowell

    Hank McDowell Member

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    I’d say -210 isn’t great value. It’s probably handicapped about right. Not terrible, but nothing to write home about either.
     
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  20. SemisolidSnake

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    Hmm, interesting list here. Even more interesting is that the three we've mentioned were all Dodgers when they won SS.

    Valenzuela won RoY, Cy Young, and Silver Slugger in 1981.
     
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