Farmstros posted ... Rule 5 Eligibles These players are vulnerable to the 2012 Rule 5 draft. Players in bold are vulnerable for the first time. Luis Alvarez, C(2012 Team(s)- Greeneville/Lexington) Francisco Baso, RHP(DSL Astros) Ricardo Batista, LHP(GCL Astros) Erik Castro, IF(Lancaster) Jose Cisnero, RHP(CC/OKC) Jarred Cosart, RHP(CC/OKC) Luis Cruz, LHP(Lexington) Brad Dydalewicz, LHP(Lancaster) Gabriel Garcia, LHP(Lexington/Lancaster) Rene Garcia, C(Lancaster/CC) Ernesto Genoves, C(Greeneville/Lexington) Jacob Goebbert, OF(CC/OKC) Alfredo Gonzalez, C(GCL Astros) Zachary Grimmett, RHP(Lancaster) Robbie Grossman, OF(Altoona/CC) Grant Hogue, OF(Lancaster) Emilio King, OF(Tri-City/Lexington/Lancaster) Marc Krauss, OF(Mobile/CC/OKC) Chia-jen Lo, RHP(GCL Astros/Lancaster) Dan Meszaros, RHP(DNP-Injured) Juan Mojica, RHP(GCL Astros) Jose Monzon, OF(Greeneville) Cristian Moronta, C(GCL Astros/Greeneville/Tri-City/Lexington) Wes Musick, LHP(Lancaster/CC/OKC) Brett Oberholtzer, LHP(CC/OKC) Ben Orloff, IF(Lancaster/CC) Carlos Perez, C(Lansing/Lancaster) Juri Perez, RHP(Tri-City/Lexington) Nate Pettus, RHP(Lexington) Carlos Quevedo, RHP(Lexington/Lancaster) Euris Quezada, RHP(Greeneville/Tri-City/Lexington) Darwin Rivera, IF(GCL Astros) Ross Seaton, RHP(CC/OKC) Andrew Simunic, IF(CC/OKC) Jason Stoffel, RHP(CC) Frederick Tiburcio, RHP(Greeneville) Jonathan Villar, SS(CC) Brandon Wikoff, IF(CC) Josh Zeid, RH(CC)
Looks like the Astros will have to protect: Jose Cisnero, RHP(CC/OKC) Brett Oberholtzer, LHP(CC/OKC) Jonathan Villar, SS(CC) and could lose: Robbie Grossman, OF(Altoona/CC) Ross Seaton, RHP(CC/OKC) Jason Stoffel, RHP(CC) Josh Zeid, RH(CC)
Grossman/Seaton/Stoffel are likely to be on the 40-man roster. Oberholtzer, Villar, Cisnero, Cosart, Perez, & Krauss also are probably locks as well. The guy I'm afraid we are going to lose is Lo. We currently have 42 players on our 40-man roster (Weiland & Escalona will have to come of the 60-day DL eventually, but I don't know about for Rule V purposes), assuming we didn't lose anyone to FA. Guys likely to be non-tendered/Gone: Jorge De Leon Arcenio Leon Jose Valdez Edgar Gonzalez Chris Snyder Enerio Del Rosario Additional guys holding their breaths: Hector Ambriz Fernando Abad Fernando Rodriguez Chuckie Fick Matt Downs Tyler Greene Scott Moore Brandon Barnes Jordan Schafer J.B. Shuck Sergio Escalona Brian Bogusevic Guys that would be surprising, but possible: Kyle Weiland Xavier Cedeno Justin Maxwell Fernando Martinez Brandon Laird Rhiner Cruz Dallas Keuchel
The 40 man roster will include these 9 guys plus 31 others. That means that there will be a fairly significant 40 man roster turn over this offseason.
Astros.com has our 40 man roster as Pitchers: Fernando Abad Hector Ambriz Xavier Cedeno Paul Clemens Rhiner Cruz Jorge De Leon Enerio Del Rosario Chuckie Fick Edgar Gonzalez Lucas Harrell Dallas Keuchel Arcenio Leon Wilton Lopez Jordan Lyles Bud Norris Rudy Owens Fernando Rodriguez Mickey Storey Jose Valdez Wesley Wright Catchers Jason Castro Carlos Corporan Chris Snyder Infielders Jose Altuve Matt Dominguez Matt Downs Marwin Gonzalez Tyler Greene Brandon Laird Jed Lowrie Scott Moore Brett Wallace Outfielders Brandon Barnes Brian Bogusevic Fernando Martinez J.D. Martinez Justin Maxwell Jimmy Paredes Jordan Schafer J.B. Shuck Plus Weiland and Escalona were on the DL, as juicystream mentioned.
Definitely some tough decisions to be made. I'd like to see Zeid & Lo added, but I'm not optimistic for 11 new faces. Also hard to imagine us going into the Rule V draft without an opening, since we'd have 1st pick again. It is why Singleton is a long shot to be on our opening day roster. We need those 40-man spots. If I was Luhnow, we'd say goodbye to: Bogusevic Ambriz Valdez Del Rosario Schafer Leon Leon Barnes Moore Snyder (Can't see us picking up his option) Gonzalez Escalona Fick Abad Add the 11 guys I've mentioned, and our 40-man would be at 39 (I'm assuming 60-day DL guys would be off the DL, since new season).
Something like this seems the way to go. I wouldnt lose any sleep over losing any of those 11 guys. It kinda pisses me off a bit the way Rule 5 basically penalizes teams trying to rebuild their farm.
Most Rule V draftees are nobodys. It isn't as much a deep system that hurts as a deep team. A team with 25 veterans, is going to have less room on their 40-man roster. A team is at most going to lose 2 players. For us, we have a team filled with mediocre or worse players in their late 20s. We can afford to let those guys go to protect guys with actual potential. Also we have the possibility that Luhnow will get some trades done at the winter meetings that will alleviate our 40 man roster. We need incentive to cut bait with some of these guys. We need to churn the roster. I'm interested to see if he doesn't get traded if the team might move Norris to the bullpen to make room for someone else in the rotation, and solidify the bullpen. Right now the rotation is Harrell/Norris/Lyles/Keuchel with Owens/Weiland/Cisnero/Obertholtzer/Clemens/Cosart competing for a 5th spot. Depending on who returns, we could have 1-2 bullpen spots available.
Why the love for JB Shuck? None of the above players inspire. But ... If you release a 25 roster player, you need to identify the prospect on the 40 man roster who will replace them. As an example, if set Scott Moore free, someone will need to fill his backup IF slot on the 25 man team. If you replace Scott Moore with a FA, this will not help the 40 man roster "pressure". If you replace Scott Moore with a internal prospect, that should open s spot on the 40 man roster. Another way to think about is that there are 15 players on the 40 man rosters who will not play for the Astros proper, but are rule-5-able prospects the Astros are protecting. My fifteen prospects list is ... Injured MLB talent that may be MLB talent in the future 1: Kyle Weiland (Age 26) 2: Sergio Escalona (Age 28) Past Rule 5 Picks 3: Rhiner Cruz (Age 25) 4: Marwin Gonzalez (Age 23) Prospects 5: Jarred Cosart (Age 22) AAA RHP (BA #50, Atros #4) 6: Jonathan Villar (Age 21) AA SS (BA #94, Atros #15) 7: Jose Cisnero (Age 23) AAA RHP (Astros #19) 8: Carlos Perez (Age 21) A+ C (Astros #18) 9: Brett Oberholtzer (Age 23) AAA LHP (Astros #20) 10: Ross Seaton (Age 23) AAA RHP 11: Rudy Owens (Age 24) AAA LHP 12: Paul Clemens (Age 24) AAA RHP 13: Jason Stoffel (Age 24) AA RHP 14: Robbie Grossman (Age 23) AA OF 15: Marc Krauss (Age 25) AAA OF I am too lazy to check if all 15 players stlll have options left and can be sent to AAA to start the season.
^Here is my 25 man roster: C: Castro 1B: Wallace 2B: Altuve SS: Lowrie 3B: Dominguez LF: Martinez CF: Paredes RF: Maxwell DH: Martinez Bench: Greene/Laird/Downs/Corporan SP: Norris/Harrell/Lyles/Keuchel/Owens RP: Lopez/Wright/Storey/Cedeno/FRod/Weiland/Cruz Minors: Gonzalez/Villar/Clemens/Oberholtzer/Cosart/Cisnero/Perez/Seaton/Stoffel/Zeid/Lo/Grossman/Krauss/Shuck Open roster spot for Rule V draft. If we do make a selection, I'd send Weiland (or Cruz if Weiland is out of options, but I don't think he is) down if a pitcher and JD Martinez if a position player.
I have no desire to hold onto Escalona. He is 28, was never that good, and we already have a couple of lefties in Wright and Cedeno.
My 25 man roster aint much different ... SP1: Lucas Harrell (Age 27) SP2: Bud Norris (Age 27) SP3: Jordan Lyles (Age 22) SP4: Dallas Keuchel (Age 24) SP5: FA or Edgar Gonzalez (Age 29) or Rudy Owens (Age 24) or Kyle Weiland (Age 26) RP1: Wilton Lopez (Age 29) RP2: Wesley Wright (Age 27) RP3: Xavier Cedeno (Age 26) RP4: Mickey Storey (Age 26) RP5: FA or Hector Ambriz (Age 28) RP6: FA or Rhiner Cruz (Age 25) RP7: FA or Rule 5 pick C1: Jason Castro (Age 25) C2: FA or Carlos Corporan (Age 28) IF1: Brett Wallace (Age 26) IF2: Jose Altuve (Age 22) IF3: Jed Lowrie (Age 28) IF4: Matt Dominguez (Age 23) IF5: Tyler Greene (Age 29) or Marwin Gonzalez (Age 23) IF6: FA or Scott Moore (Age 28) OF1: Jimmy Paredes (Age 23) OF2: Justin Maxwell (Age 28) OF3: Fernando Martinez (Age 24) OF4: FA or Brandon Barnes (Age 26) OF5/DH: J.D. Martinez (Age 25)
2nd link is a little more interesting as the 1st one is mostly "I don't know".. just gotta wait and see. Sounds like there's no projecting this one
