Good morning everybody, On the heels of what is hopefully going to be a tremendous 2012 draft by the Astros, I was doing this fun little exercise with some friends in looking through our crystal balls and guessing what our lineup will be in 2016. At least it is fun to me, maybe you guys will disagree. And I figure it would be great to hear from those that know a lot more about our minor leaguers than I (I'm looking at you tellitlikeitis and OremLK). So without further ado, I think the best case scenario would be the Astros trotting out this everyday lineup in 2016: LF Ariel Ovando - this outfield spot is really up for grabs, I just listed him here because I have high hopes for him, and I am hoping he becomes what we were hoping he would become when we gave him our largest signing bonus to an international free agent to date. He is still very young, but maybe he can develop and rise with Correa and Ruiz? CF George Springer - last year's first pick for us has been as good as advertised. Has shown great flashes of power and speed, I think he can be a Curtis Granderson-lite. I will take a few less HR's for a better batting average than the Grandy Man though. RF Domingo Santana - pure power right here, and that's what I want out of my RFer. He does need to improve his approach, and cut down on his K's, because Luhnow and co. love on-base percentage (as well they should), but I think 30-35 HR's from this kid year in and year out is realistic. 3B Rio Ruiz - we finally get a legit third base prospect. Now let's just hope he can develop into a great everyday 3B. SS Carlos Correa - same as Ruiz above (although we do have Villar and Mier at SS, and hopefully Fontana later today), but in a perfect world, he develops into a Troy Tulowitzki type player. 2B Delino Deshields Jr. - yup, over Altuve (I'll put him at DH, don't worry). Our first pick 2 years ago, is ultra-toolsy and still a work in progress, but his second year thus far has been leaps and bounds better than his first (he struggled last year). He already has 51 SB's on the year, and only has been caught a handful of times. His approach at the plate and willingness to take a walk is a great asset. As long as he gets on base, he will be scary on the basepaths. He will hopefully develop into the prototypical lead-off hitter and table-setter, and score a lot of runs in the process. 1B Jonathan Singleton - one of the top 1B prospects in all of the minors, he has had a pretty good season in the minors this year and has proven that he belongs among the top 1B prospects. C Castro - coming off a pretty bad injury last year and after a slow start to this season, it looks like he is getting his timing back and his numbers have been good for the past month. I will gladly take a smart catcher behind the plate, who gives us a .270 average with 10 HR's a year. I'm not sure I have ever seen that from an Astros catcher actually! DH Altuve/Telvin Nash - Although Altuve is not a typical DH, I agree with some other posters on here who came up with this idea, and I say why the hell not. The kid can flat out hit and get on base. He might not give you 30 HRs like Big Papi or other DH's, but I can live with him just being a hitting machine, without a whole lot of power (he still has some). I am also including Telvin Nash because his raw power still intrigues me. Unfortunately, as tellitlikeitis points out in his daily minor league updates, he is a real strikeout machine, and he makes Adam Dunn look like Tony freaking Gwynn. Assuming the guys listed above, my lineup would look something like: 2B Delino Deshields Jr. CF George Springer SS Carlos Correa 1B Jonathan Singleton 3B Rio Ruiz RF Domingo Santana LF Ariel Ovando C Castro DH Altuve I think that could end being a pretty good lineup. A lot of speed and athleticism mixed in with a lot of power. Do you guys think a lineup like that would be able to compete and succeed in the AL West? Our rotation could look like: SP1 McCullers Jr. - probably pretty aggressive, but we are looking at this as a best case scenario. Hopefully he develops his off speed pitches and becomes the ace of our future rotation. SP2 Jarred Cosart - raw stuff is definitely there, but it hasn't translated to dominance yet. I have been reading his updates on here and it is encouraging that it looks like he is starting to put it all together. I just hope he turns out more like Verlander and less like Tim Redding. SP3 Lyles - in 5 years from now, he would still be only 26! SP4 I don't have a guess really (this is where my lack of in depth knowledge of our minor league teams hurt me), maybe Dallas Kuechel or Paul Clemens? SP5 I don't have a guess really (this is where my lack of in depth knowledge of our minor league teams hurt me), maybe Dallas Kuechel or Paul Clemens? So what do you guys think? In a perfect world, if everything works out like we think and hope, what does your 2016 Astros lineup look like? And this is just including the current players in our system, we should be able to add a few big pieces via free agency as well. But I hope this will at least spur some interesting dialogue and I hope others find this to be as interesting of an exercise that I did. I'm sure the real 2016 lineup will look much different, but at least I can come back in a few years and go, "Samsonite....I was way off!"
I think you did a pretty decent job and my roster would look pretty similar but a couple of thoughts: -LOVE the outfield and hopefully all 3 will develop like expected. -I too like DD Jr at 2B by then and could see Altuve being used at DH or even being expendable as Delino develops. -Catcher is pretty big wild card as its now clearly the weakest position in the entire organization. I like him a lot but by 2016 I think Castro will around 30 so I hope somebody else develops. -I hope the rotation will include Tropeano and Folty by then and my surprise closer would be a newly-converted Bud Norris!
4th starter would be Mike Foltynewicz 5th starter would probably be Paul Clemens Other potential starters are Nick Tropeano & Brett Oberholtzer. I'd probably picture McCullers as our closer and Tropeano in the rotation.
3B is still the weakest position, IMO. It is all in how you look at. Ruiz has a very high ceiling, much higher than any of our catchers, but if he flops, there really isn't anyone else (unless you include Wallace/Paredes, which then I would tend to agree that C becomes the worst). I really like Tyler Heineman and I think Wallace, Kvansicka, and Heath could have major league careers.
For some reason I don't see Clemens in the rotation, maybe the pen. I forgot all about OB, gotta have that lefty! I could also see Cosart developing into a closer but he'd need to develop thicker skin. Seems a little fragile but maybe that turns into that chip that closers need to have.
C- Jason Castro 1B- Jonathan Singleton 2B- Delino Deshields 3B- Chris Johnson SS- Carlos Correa LF- Austin Wates CF- Jordan Shafer RF- George Springer SP1- Bud Norris SP2- Jarred Cosart SP3- Jordan Lyles SP4- Mike Foltynewicz SP5- Brett Oberholtzer CL- Lance McCullers I think Ruiz takes longer than 4 years to get up here. 22 is pretty ambitious, but it can be done if he's on the fast track and is mashing. Hopefully Correa is as good as we believe he is. They might take it a little slower with him since he's only 17. Bud Norris will only be 31 in 2016, so he should still be in his prime. Santana will not be starting in 2016. He's way too young and unrefined and I think they take him level by level.
Most good players don't take more than 4 years to get to the big leagues (unless of course they are intl FA signed at 16). If you took Santana 1 year at each step: 2013 - AA, 2014 - AAA, 2015 - Majors.
Yeah Ruiz is the main reason I'd say catcher but it's clearly very thin still although I'd toss Matt Duffy into the potential mix with Correa possibly moving to 3B. Kvansicka's bat is very intriguing as well his ability to play multiple positions.
Forgot all about Duffy. The good news is, when you consider players that can switch positions, every position has at least 2 guys with ML potential, while that wasn't true 2 years ago.
This is fun, I'll play along CF - DDJ LF - Springer SS - Correa 1B - Singleton 3B - Ruiz DH - Ovando RF - Santana 2B - Altuve C - Castro UTIL - Fontana 4OF - D. Toney SP2 - Cosart SP2 - Foltynewicz SP3 - Lyles SP4 - Tropeano SP5 - B. Rodgers CL - McCullers Jr. Two marked as SP2 because I don't see a true ace in the system right now. Let's not forget the Astros will likely have a top 5 draft picks the next two or three years.
If by 2016, both CJ and Schafer are still starting, I'd be shocked and disappointed. I'd take Austin Wates right now over Schafer. 3-4 years is a decent timeline for a 19y/o player to reach the majors and if Santana doesn't repeat a level then he'd be up by then.
yep, and it's not surprising at all that we already feel this way. the bourn return (sounds like a movie sequel title) was lousy.
If CJ is playing like he has this season, I'll have no problem. Schafer would need to show dramatic improvement.
ideally they develop into decent players of course, but we weren't getting back enough value for an all-star, gold glove, young cf in the first place.
C Jason Castro 1B Jonathan Singleton 2B Jose Altuve SS Jonathan Villar (could be Mier or Correa) 3B Carlos Correa (could be Duffy) LF Domingo Santana CF Delino Deshields Jr. RF George Springer SP Jarred Cosart SP Jordan Lyles (he'll figure it out) SP Bud Norris SP Mike Foltynewicz SP Jose Cisnero (Wild Card, misses bats, could be great if he cuts down the walks) CL Lance McCullers
