Fiers, Musgrove, pick 75 for Greinke and $90M? Tucker, Perez, Fisher, Fiers, and 75 for Archer? Martes, Fisher, Reed, Paulino, and 75 for Quintana?
Similar production is similar production even if players different. Most teams have gone to their own version of the WAR system because WAR does a great job of distributing the credit of wins and WAR has a high degree of correlation with wins. WAR may be robotic, but it is common sense in today's MLB world. It isn't perfect, but is a rough approximation of value. Trades track public versions of WAR better every year (not counting catchers and RP that public versions have trouble). Free agent signings match projected WAR better this year as teams didn't pay HR hitters (e.g. Trumbo, EE) significantly more than their WAR dictates this year. A TOR SP is typically worth about 4 wins or more. Considering Astros would likely have to trade about 1 WAR of production this year from guys CWS has asked. Astros would also lose about 1.5-2.5 WAR in production for SPs and RPs that Quintana will take their innings. 2 wins seems about right as Astros would not go from 0 value to Quintana. They are deep even though light on top. You can get on your porch and shake your fist all you want about posts like this, but it is obvious Astros are a team with a WAR-minded GM. Astros are going to act like Quintana provides value as WAR dictates. If Quintana was valued more highly than his WAR dictates, CWS would never trade him and would have kept Sale. Prospects have value even if it is with variance. No way CWS accept prospects that won't be expected to aide them win any less than 20% more wins than Quintana is expected to contribute. You seem to devalue prospects and add extra value to Quintana. It would make no sense for CWS to do deal if this was true.
I still argue that all wins are not equal. Just because Quintana represents only a 2 win upgrade, it doesn't mean he isn't worth acquiring. If those 2 wins are the difference between the division and the wild card or the wc and missing the playoffs, they are far more valuable than the 2 wins upgrading from 70-72. So it's not wise to evaluate a potential trade like this in terms of added WAR; the better evaluation would be the add % chance of making the playoffs and advancing.
There are other unquantifiable benefits that are taken seriously, like less pressure on the other starters, less pressure on the offense those days he pitches, general mindset in the clubhouse regarding the prospects for the season, etc....
That seems fair, granted I'm biased. I'm not sure a CWS fan would love that deal, but they're just as biased. CWS owns the 11th, 49th, 87th, and 117th picks. I wonder if the attractiveness of pick #75 exceeds that of the actual draftee, but the reallocation of slot money elsewhere. CWS doesn't have an abundance of picks, so maybe I grasping at nothing. $740K (slot value of #75) isn't make or break on it's own, but they could surely a portion of that and other slots to try to reel in two big names at 11 ($4MM) and 49 ($1.3MM).
Certainly with 5 of the top 120 picks they could combine the pool and come away with 2 of the top 15 prospects. Or they could simply take 5 of the top 120 prospects. There are two advantages to having extra picks: the added pool money allows for flexibility as described above, but also it allows them to get better value out of their scouting dollars since they will be able to get multiple prospects from the same pool.
Doubt you'd see a 5-1 trade, the Stros would get back a low-level guy at least, maybe also a superfluous AAAA middle-infield type, given their m.o. with the Cosart/Giles trades. I'm just ready for something to happen or the season to start (then I can wait and see). This nothingness of action is killing me.
Classic example/description of the win curve theory. The best review of the win curve theory I found online was Dave Cameron at Fangraphs (I think all his stuff is gold), except replace overpay in cash with overpay in prospects.
Astros lineup should lead to a less taxed bullpen as well. Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Musgrove, Morton can all turn out solid to outstanding performances. Fiers, possibly Devenski or Feliz could step if need be and possibly even Martes or Paulino as soon as next season. Martes is the only prospect completely off the table. Would be fine pulling a deal mid-season if it's a real need. Right now I'm not sold that they won't have internal solutions and upgrades
I would sit still until Spring Training... Obviously I would do that Quintana trade in a heart beat! If CWS want more bthan that packaged, screw them. Only thing that scares me about Quintana is that he doesn't strike out people a lot. May as well see what Martes and Musgrove can do in SP. At least they shown some strike out stuff.
i haven't seen Quintana pitch much. From the sound of things he's good. But it seems the White Sox are holding out for the same caliber of prospect as for Chris Sales, and i mean the exact same package. Chris Sales was a bona fide ace, Quintana is a #2 or #3 type guy. Well neither the Astros or Sox have budged, so both GM's are sticking to their guns.
Quintana has been the 8th most valuable pitcher in baseball over the last 3 seasons, 10th most valuable over the last 2 seasons, and he was the 11th most valuable pitcher in baseball last season (using fWAR). In terms of overall value, there's no argument that he's anything other than an ace. Now, a lot of his value comes from his durability, so I can see an argument that when playoff time comes you wouldn't want him as your Game 1 starter if you think he has #2 or #3 stuff. But that's an extremely hard case to make without using subjective metrics. I suppose you could point to xFIP, where he has been 33rd, 27th, and 36th over the last 1,2, and 3 seasons respectively. But that's what will keep him from bringing a package like they got from Sale (which would mean Houston giving up Bregman), and reduce it to the Martes-Tucker-Musgrove demand we've seen reported.
The longer this goes without any substantive news, the less optimistic I am that something gets done. Obviously the White Sox have no incentive to take anything less than what they deem "fair" for Quintana given his contract, but the Astros window is wide open, so they are in no rush to "overpay" for anything either.
i see, kindof like, This was the package the Astros were willing to give for Sales, and the Sox said, that package is suitable for Quintana, not Sales. But now the Astros say, you want as much for Quintana as you wanted for Sales. But the Astros never met the price for Sales..... Got to hand it to the Astros, they too are playing hard ball. Reality is the Astros are on the cusp of a true championship quality team. Its now, do they go with a known commodity in Quintana (albeit an overpay), or do they throw the dice and hope Martes, Musgrove, Paulino figure it out on the fly. There is a risk on both ends! With either decision, the Astros figure to be competitive. White Sox dont need to blink; sure they'd like more prospects, but Quintana figures to be valuable this year, next year, the year after that. Windows of opportunity close up more rapidly that that.....
