Maybe it would simplify things to go ahead and put him on the DL before the trade. Saves us from having to.
I like our current lineup. Keutchel, McCullers, McHugh, Musgrove (top 4 guys). There is a 5th starter and depth with Fiers, Feliz, Davenski, and Morton. Plus there are some gems situated to break into the bigs, Martes and Paulino. Lineup was hit by the injury bug last season, so it wasn't a question of talent. I'm very bullish on Musgrove taking the league by storm this season, I think he will be an efficient innings eater. He just has to realize walks aren't the end all measurement stats, walks happen, you can't challenge everyone every at bat merely to avoid a walk, elusiveness keeps hitters guessing.
Archer is the best of the three but may be too expensive. Sonny Gray is enticing but he was hurt all last season, which brings us right back to where we've been for three months chasing Quintana
I don't think I agree, at Archer's best he was about the same or maybe a little better than what Quintana has done consistently for a couple years. Quintana is younger, has never he 4+ in ERA. Everything else has been the same about. He has a better SO/BB and WHIP. What am I missing that makes Archer better? The more I look at Quintana the more I am not understanding why we dont do this.. Take the EXTREMELY CONSISTENT, good pitcher in Quintana rather than hoping Martes and Musgrove become that good... Or try and keep Musgrove or Martes and add a few field players with Tucker. If they will accept Tucker, Martes, and Musgrove without Bregman, just do it.
Is Quintana any better than McHugh? Seems like they've had similar stats over the last three years. Would you offer Tucker, Martes, and Musgrove for McHugh if McHugh were on a different team? Would love to add Quintana, but not for the price that the Sox are asking. I'd rather roll with what we have and make a deal at the All Star break.
Fangraphs 2017 Projected WAR (starting pitching) Kershaw (LAD) 7.7 Scherzer (Wash) 5.9 Syndergaard (Mets) 5.7 Bumgarner (SFG) 4.9 Kluber (Cle) 4.9 Sale (BOS) 4.8 Verlander (DET) 4.7 Lester (Cubs) 4.5 Price (BOS) 4.5 Carrasco (CLE) 4.5 Darvish (TEX) 4.5 Strasburg (Wash) 4.4 Quintana (CWS) 4.2 Cueto (SFG) 4.2 Keuchel (Hou) 4.1 Archer (TB) 4.1 Arrieta (Cubs) 4.1 deGrom (Mets) 3.9 Tanaka (NYY) 3.9 Cole (Pit) 3.8 Martinez (STL) 3.7 Porcello (BOS) 3.6 McCullers (Hou) 3.6 Greinke (AZ) 3.6 Taillon (Pit) 3.6 Matz (Mets) 3.5 Pineda (NYY) 3.5 Gray (Col) 3.5 Hamels (TEX) 3.4 Felix (Sea) 3.1 Gray (Oak) 3.0 McHugh (Hou) 2.7
No they haven't. In ERA: Quintana: 3.32, 3.36, 3.20 McHugh: 2.73, 3.89, 4.34 In WAR: Quintana: 3.5, 4.0, 5.2 (total: 12.7) McHugh: 4.2, 3.1, 1.2 (8.5) Not only is Quintana superior across the board, he's also trending in the opposite direction. In what way are their stats similar?
If you prefer fangraphs data, the WAR results would be: Quintana:5.1, 4.8, 4.8 (14.7) McHugh: 3.2, 3.7, 3.0 (9.9) If you prefer FIP over ERA: Quintana: 2.81, 3.18, 3.56 (3.19) McHugh: 3.11, 3.58, 3.95 (3.57) While some of their underlying stats, such as K-BB%, BABIP, WHIP may be similar in the aggregate, McHugh is a solid MOR pitcher, and Quintana is a good 2 at least. Interestingly, SIERA, the newest ERA predictor stat, gives the aggregate edge to McHugh for their careers 3.81 to 3.87.
McHugh outpitched Quintana in 2014. Quintana won that battle in 2015, 2016. Obviously the FO doesn't want to risk the odds that McHugh is able to return to 2014 form; but the price for Quintana is too high. We'll start the year with our current makeup and 'react' if needed (per Luhnow today).
I was focused on WHIP, but these numbers also show a similar story. For WHIP numbers, McHugh had a better 2014, both were about even in 2015, and Quintana had a better 2016. I think Quintana is more consistent and b/c he's younger, he has more value. I'd say that Quintana is a strong No. 2, McHugh is a weak No. 2/strong No. 3 pitcher over the next couple years. But it seems like the Sox are asking for a Chris Sale-type haul for Quintana. I'd take a pass on that. We might already have that in Musgrove or Martes.
"Would say" He DID say that. I think Jeff is keeping things real.... Those teams selling starting pitchers want us obscene cost in return. This cost is not being reduced. We are not going to pay this cost when it could hurt us more than it helps us THIS year.
So when we say their stats are similar, we are saying that they theoretically should performing similar lyand but have to ignore what actually happened, yes? There must be someone who's done analysis on which of these stats - SIERA, xFIP, WAR, ERA, WHIP, etc - have the most predictive value on future performance, no? Does anyone know what they say?
Sierra and xFIP are more predictive than ERA and WHIP over small sample sizes. ERA typically needs multiple seasons and can be heavily influenced by defense, stadium. I'd say descriptive stats typical describe what happened...but may not be as useful in describing the true value of a player currently in a context neutral environment. For example, ERA is a much worse stat to use in extreme stadiums even with park adjustments.
I was willing to agree with you up until the end. Doing the trade helps us WAY more than it hurts us THIS year. The issue is future. Tucker and Martes are future not now. And at most what everyone is hoping is that they can be Quintana. So I agree it's a large haul for Quintana, butgetting him would be a lot more help THIS year and might hurt us in future years.
As time passes, I find myself cooling on Quintana. I was really hoping to land one of: Sale, Quintana, or Archer, and I know that we still can obtain Quintana or Archer, but I don't think it's going to happen. And that might just be the best course of action for us at the moment anyway. I felt like if we were going to obtain an ace to fortify the top of our rotation, then this offseason should have been aggressive (i.e. also sign Ediwn Encarnacion). Add Quintana and EE, or Archer and EE, and I would be absolutely thrilled about our outlook for the next 3 years (we would have virtually no holes at the major league level, and while our farm system would take a huge hit, we would have those same 3 years to help plan and re-build that pipeline). That would have made us an instant powerhouse, a force to be reckoned with. I would include us in the very short list of the elite tier like the Cubs, Red Sox, Indians, and the Nationals, and would be cautiously optimistic about finally experiencing a World Series title. But now, I think we should probably just keep our approach of building around our uber-talented core, and see what opportunities arise. I am not as bullish on our offense as others are, and I voice the same concerns about having the starting pitching fire power if we are fortunate enough to make the playoffs. But I still think we have a very talented, young, and hungry roster that will make some noise this year and beyond. Watch since I have just come to peace with not acquiring an ace to the staff, we will probably trade for Quintana by Wednesday, ha!
Going into the season the only guys on this list that are possibly available now (and up to the trade deadline) through a trade would be: Verlander (if the Tigers are out of making a playoff run) Quintana Archer Greinke (same as Verlander--DBacks out of a playoff run) Gray (Oak)
