Astros featured on cover of Sports Illustrated 2016 MLB Preview, picked to win World Series

Don't think this is the corresponding article with the cover but...

[rquoter]2016 MLB season preview: Houston Astros

Spoiler

2015 Record and Finish:
86–76 (.531), second place in American League West, second place in AL wild card (10th overall); lost AL Division Series to Royals

2016 Projected Record and Finish:
96–66 (.592), first place in AL West

The Case For

Your 2017 World Series Champs? For a while last season, it seemed as if our cover prediction from June of 2014—scorned by many—might prove two years too conservative. After six straight losing seasons, the rebuilt and reestablished Astros ranked sixth in runs scored (729) and sixth in runs allowed (618) for a run differential of +111 (the majors’ third best), suggesting that they were in fact unlucky to win only 86 games and the second wild card spot. Houston's Pythagorean record was 93–69, which would have tied them for the AL’s second-best finish were the game played by Pythagoras. In any event, the Astros topped the Yankees in the wild-card game and made it to the ALDS, taking a 2–1 series lead on the eventual champion Royals before falling in five games.

Houston had such a season despite receiving only part-time work from two of its three best regulars. Jose Altuve played 154 games and received MVP votes for the second straight year after batting .313 with 15 homers, 66 RBIs and 38 steals. George Springer, though, suffered a broken wrist in July and played in only 102 games, hitting .276 with 16 homers, 41 RBIs and 16 steals. Carlos Correa, the 21-year-old shortstop and former No. 1 draft pick, played in only 99, as he didn’t debut until June 8. The precocious Rookie of the Year hit .279 with 22 homers, 68 RBIs and 14 steals and immediately became the club’s unquestioned leader—their Derek Jeter in Yeezys and a fedora.

Had both Correa and Springer played a full season’s worth of games, their Wins Above Replacement project to over 6.0 apiece, a figure topped by just 15 regulars in 2015. Full seasons and another year of maturity should allow them to surpass that mark for real, and to lead an Astros team that remains a legitimate threat for a ring—still a year early, according to some.

The Case Against

Lance McCullers—picked 41st in the same 2012 draft that produced Correa—was also a revelation as a rookie in 2015, pitching to a 3.22 ERA over 125 2/3 innings and striking out seven hard-to-whiff Royals in 6 1/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALDS. He was armed with a mid-90s fastball and a hard curve against which batters hit .148—one that helped him maintain a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3:1. But McCullers’s efforts meant a 56.7% jump in total innings pitched from the year before despite the Astros’ attempts to limit his use. That makes him a prime candidate to suffer from the Year-After Effect—my colleague Tom Verducci's attempt to identify young hurlers with a heightened injury risk due to significantly increased work.

Well, McCullers already has a sore shoulder, and the Astros have announced that he will miss the start of the regular season. That’s a concern for an Astros rotation that already resembles a kiddie pool: shallow and lacking heat. In fact, not one of the five men who will now comprise the early rotation—returnees Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Scott Feldman and bargain free agent Doug Fister—averages even 91 mph with his fastball. Of course, a paucity of pace hardly affected Keuchel, last year’s Cy Young winner, and the rest have experienced significant stretches of success in recent seasons. But if there’s one thing that could hold back the Astros’ ascent, a soft-tossing rotation that is now stretched thin could be it.​

X-Factor: Tyler White, 1B
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Number To Know: 7.1
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Scout’s Takes

Most Overrated: Colby Rasmus, OF
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Most Underrated: Luis Valbuena, IF
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[SI] Scouts' takes: Breaking down each AL roster