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Astros are on pace to be one of the most dominant teams in MLB history

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by CometsWin, Jun 27, 2018.

  1. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    IDIOT


    Every time you see a post in the game threads about how this team is trash, the offense is trash, Hinch is trash, the bullpen is trash, yadda yadda... just realize the historic nature of what you're watching.



    Astros are on pace to be one of the most dominant teams in MLB history
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-teams-in-mlb-history/?utm_term=.38b7055395f2

    The Houston Astros are doing a fine job defending their World Series title. The American League West division leaders are 52-28 with claims to being the best hitting and pitching team in baseball this season. As a team they are batting .264 — tied with the Boston Red Sox for best in the majors in 2018 — with a .771 OPS (third), creating runs at a rate 16 percent higher than average after accounting for league and park effects (116 wRC+). The New York Yankees are second-best at 14 percent. Houston’s starting rotation is the only one with a collective ERA under 3.00 this season and its bullpen is there, too, with a 2.70 ERA, the second-best among major league teams. Even its fielding is stellar, saving 25 runs through 80 games, the fifth-best mark in 2018.

    It’s also possible the Astros win-loss record isn’t a true reflection of how good this team is. Based on their Pythagorean win percentage, which uses a team’s runs scored and allowed to derive how many games a team should win and lose, a team like Houston, which has 412 runs scored and 246 runs allowed, would be expected to have a 58-22 record, six more wins than they have heading into Tuesday night’s games. Take things a step further and use the Astros’ BaseRuns win percentage, a third-order winning percentage which takes into account a team’s performance without considering the sequencing to calculate expected runs scored and runs allowed, and Houston should be 54-26 based on its plus-166 run differential, which is also the best in baseball. The Boston Red Sox, by comparison, are second (plus-112) and the Yankees are third (plus-102), showing just how dominant the Astros have been in the early goings of 2018.

    [​IMG]

    Run differential is simply the difference in runs scored versus runs allowed throughout the season. It’s not a perfect barometer of a team’s strength, but it does provide a good idea of which teams are winning decisively and which are squeaking by. And Houston, by outscoring opponents by over two runs a game, is on pace to be the most dominating team in since the introduction of the designated hitter in 1973. Since that time, no team has ever finished the season with a run differential per game higher than the 1998 New York Yankees, a team that averaged 1.91 runs more per game than their opponents. The 2001 Seattle Mariners (1.85) and 1995 Cleveland Indians (1.62) are second and third, respectively. If Houston can keep the momentum going, it will have accomplished something extraordinary.

    [​IMG]

    And there is no reason to expect a slowdown anytime soon. Based on the team’s exit velocity and launch angle of balls put in play, the Astros are performing almost exactly as we would expect them to. Their expected batting average (.257) is not much lower than how they are actually performing at the plate (.264) and neither is their slugging percentage (.435 actual vs. 434 expected). Houston also doesn’t strike out often (20 percent, fourth-best) nor does it, as a team, chase many pitches out of the strike zone.

    [​IMG]

    Second baseman Jose Altuve, the reigning AL MVP, leads the league in batting average (.343) with an .892 OPS, 55 percent higher than average after adjusting for league and park effects. His overall stats have taken a dip from last season, but based on his quality of contact and how hard he is hitting the ball, Altuve has room to improve. For example, players with his average exit velocity (88.6 mph) and launch angle (11 degrees) are expected to produce a slugging rate of .523, higher than Altuve’s actual rate of .491.

    [​IMG]

    It’s unlikely the entire pitching staff can maintain its league-low 2.85 ERA, but even after adjusting that for league average results on balls in play and league average timing, also known as Fielding Independent Pitching, they would still have the lowest FIP in the majors this year (3.15), with an expected FIP — which replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered while assuming a league average home run to flyball percentage — not much higher (3.25). In other words, this is no fluke: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton are every bit as good as their stats say they are.

    Verlander has been particularly good, and the rejuvenation of his four-seam fastball has been a key to his success. His vertical release point on the pitch is higher and, as a result, it is generating more vertical movement. His strike rate on the pitch this season is 76 percent and 42 percent of those are called strikes, both career highs.

    [​IMG]

    He’s also using his fastball more aggressively — over 63 percent of his four-seam fastballs are in the strike zone, eclipsing his previous career high of 53 percent set last season.

    [​IMG]

    As you can see, the Astros are good and look every bit the part of a champion capable of defending their crown. According to FanGraphs, Houston has a 26 percent chance to win the 2018 World Series, almost the double the estimate for the Yankees (15 percent) and significantly higher than the Cleveland Indians (11 percent) and Dodgers (11 percent). And with room to improve, those projections might be a bit low.
     
  2. sealclubber1016

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    I noticed the historic run differential a few games back.

    You don't get trophies for best run differential, but having the largest one in 80 seasons would be pretty f**king impressive.
     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I agree with you, but I will say one thing that might justify some of the angst/expectations:

    If Houston wins 308 games (avg ~103/season) in 2018-2020, their record from 2011 thru 2020 will still only be .500.

    Since Houston had to put up with watching the worst team in the league (BY FAR) for 3 years during the dark times, is it too much to expect to have the best team (BY FAR) during the good times?
     
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  4. torque

    torque Contributing Member
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    I don't think it's too much to expect. Being a fan back then was horrible, especially since for a couple years there weren't even prospects coming up to be excited about (except for Altuve). The feeling I have now is, "Wow, they actually pulled it off." Kudos to them. I think, for me, with the ring and how dominant they look going forward, I can say definitely that it was all worth it.
     
  5. Madmanmetz

    Madmanmetz Member
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    I'd rather suffer through an actual rebuild and have a chance at a dynasty and 1 World Series win than do what they did all through the 80's and 90's. I recall at some point the Astros record for a ten year stretch with Biggio and Bagwell was 2nd best in MLB. They were usually in the mix but never favorites.

    I will state that the rebuild and TV deals effectively killed my son's love to watch baseball. At least my oldest, a daughter is hard core baseball fan and Astros fan. That might have been from the Hooks games we used to go watch now that I think of it.
     
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  6. torque

    torque Contributing Member
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    Gonna go ahead and disagree here. The 90s were fun as hell. Two legit stars and a chance at a ring almost every year.
     
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  7. sealclubber1016

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    Nothing wrong with the 93-06 stretch. Even if we didn't win a WS, we fielded a competitor with a legit shot almost every year.

    The 07-10 stretch was what was completely unacceptable. Losing is losing, whether it's 90 losses or 105 losses. I was personally completely happy that we went balls deep in the rebuild, and didn't pointlessly attempt to acquire "proven talent" to lose a few less games. The increased losing assured us top picks, and premium talent.

    Had we "only" lost 90 games from 11-13, fans still would have lost interest.
     
    #7 sealclubber1016, Jun 27, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2018
    Major likes this.
  8. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    Well we had no prayer in ‘90. We were in rebuild mode in ‘91 and lost 95 games. Amazingly .500 in ‘92. In’93 we underperformed but had a great nucleus. ‘94 we were awesome but there was a strike. ‘95 I think we missed the playoffs. Then, for the next 4 years we made the playoffs and lost easily every year.

    I think the 80’s were better than the 90’s
     
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  9. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    The worst part about 07-10 is that they stopped focusing on the international players, and they stopped paying money to sign draft picks.

    I didn't mind them still trying to make the MLB product on the field somewhat marketable/entertaining. But they stopped devoting resources to the farm... and inevitably, that's how you bottom out.

    Even now... as Luhnow/Elias hasn't had a #1 pick since the Brady Aiken deal (and the one prior to that was the Mark Appel deal)... they still churn out a consistently good (if not great) farm system by simply signing most of their picks and having strong foundational programs at the minor league level.
     
  10. sealclubber1016

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    We passed the Yankees in runs per game, only by fractions of a point, but still first.

    So we are currently 1st in runs per game, and fewest runs allowed per game.
     
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  11. TheRealAllpro

    TheRealAllpro Morey only fan

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    To be honest I'd rather this team have the most wins all time over a World Series.

    We already have a WS and can get more in the future but this will likely be our best chance ever to get the most wins.
     
  12. Buck Turgidson

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    WTF?
     
  13. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Most wins in ML history of 116? He are at the half way point and have 53 banked. That would mean we need to go 63 and 18 as a finishing kick. Not likely. Actually, is such a thing even possible? I don't think so.

    If, however, you mean club record for most wins, I don't see any particular reason why we won't be awesome again in 2019. With average luck this years Astros squad could be looking at contending for the 116, but that ship has already sailed this year imo.
     
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  14. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    The ultimate goal is a World Series victory. I don't care if they win 110+ or sneak into the playoffs. What trophy does the team with the most wins ever have? Pretty sure every single 2001 Seattle Mariner or 1906 Chicago Cub would trade that "all time win record" for the World Series title.
     
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  15. Buck Turgidson

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    This group has a chance to be in the conversation with some of the all-time greats...Big Red Machine, etc...I'm a greedy b*stard, I want more trophies.
     
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  16. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Someone wins a WS every year. The opportunity to watch greatness over 162 games would be pretty cool. I know I wouldn't trade going 162-0 even for a WS title if we didn't already have one. But, if we knock off 3 out of 5 or something like that, and we had a 120 win team in there that didn't win the title due to some fluke or whatever I could totally see saying - hey, that team that won the most games of all time was my favorite ride during the entire run. I'd prefer that to a fluke WS title like when the Cardinals were basically hammered dog ****, got in on the last day of the year and luck boxed their way into a ring.
     
  17. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    This team will win the most games ever AND win the WS, as I predicted before the season. Greatest team ever.
     
  18. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    Also, the window with this team is pretty wide. We could have this core for another 5+ years if all works out.
     
  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    We didn't make it in until 1997. Expanding the playoff teams from 4 to 8 was huge. When we finally tasted playoff success it was as a Wild Card. I'd say 1992-1999 was a great run.
     
  20. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Care to make a tip jar bet on that?
     

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