Been in steady decline? 2013 was the best year of his career and 2014 was the second best year of his career. Last year he was hurt and it effected his swing. But you assume Fernandez would be healthy? Kazmir hasn't signed and may well not sign. However, I don't know where you get the 70 innings of 0 WAR. It depends on who they plug in to that spot. If it is Feirs, it is certainly not 0 WAR. Doesn't matter, they made it better and the pen cost them a number of games the last 6 weeks of the season and a series against the Royals. They haven't spent any real appreciable money yet, they also have prospects to move. They are very likely to make an improvement at one of the corners. Strawman. They will go into the season as World Series contenders, along with 8 or so other teams. They have holes just like every single other team in baseball. The Astros actually UNDERACHIEVED they PYT expectation of 93-69.
It's a nice addition. But, again, the bullpen was arguably the team's greatest strength for the vast majority of last season. He doesn't have a 100 innings as a closer, though; those are vastly different innings. He seems capable, and I'm confident in the acquisition. But I think it'd be premature to just assume he'll automatically step into the role and be better than Gregerson was last year (who was pretty good). I'm flabbergasted why you keep saying this, as if it's league-mandated... Assuming he's dealt, his new team will evaluate his health and make that determination. It's possible he WILL be on a pitch limit - but you toss it around like it's a fact and the entire dynamic changes if he's traded. But even if he does wind up on an innings limit, you're not paying him $13+MM/year.
All of this depends on if you think the young guys will improve. (I think they will) They do need to add another SP IMHO. Carrasco would be the guy I would try to trade for. He's very good with the ability to become great because he's young. I dont know how many yrs he has until FA but he will be alot cheaper than Fernandez. As for the lineup there are 3 holes. I'm ready to give White/Duffy/Reed atry and use Marwin as plan B. Live with Val and make a trade deadline or before deal for a catcher. Especially considering Castro's injury history. Luccroy is the guy I would look at. I cant wait to see what Freeman can do. I think he may be the LOGGY this teamhas been lacking.
People also don't take into consideration that Altuve was basically a zero in the ALDS. Almost all of the crazy production from Rasmus was offset by Altuve being a total non-factor at the plate.
I like Gomez; I loved the deal. And I'll retract "steady" - he has not repeated his outlier of a 2013 season, and he did regress last year, for whatever reason. Fernandez isn't on the team; Springer is, and when you're discussing the 2016 Astros, assuming a full season from Springer, while hopeful and much-needed, has yet to happen. It comes from here: So only games the pen blew count? All the games they pulled out by bailing out ineffective starters, or holding slim leads late; or keeping scores close til our offense woke up, etc., are meaningless?... Seems fair. That would be great. But they haven't done it yet, so to call them demonstrably better is a little premature, don't you think? Is it?... I've said repeatedly that they're a good team; I'm countering the idea that they're a "demonstrably better" team. In terms of just acquisitions... they're essentially a net-zero. They likely improved the back of their bullpen (which was extremely good last year) and.........?
Now the Astros just need a consistent batter on the roster that can step in when the team goes cold and just put get that "key hit" so to speak. I'm not even talking about a major league All Star material..singles, doubles kinda guy if this makes sense...but on the flip side, if the Astros do nothing else they already appear stronger than they were last season due to what they've done to their bullpen.
Fangraphs Depth Charts has the Astros expected to have 5% more WAR this season than they finished with last season. Rest of Division is bunched 5 expected WAR behind them. Fangraphs likes Correa and Gomez, but has Springer and Altuve regressing by about 33%. McCullers as less effective, but more innings cause his production to be equivalent. Sipp is nerfed. Fangraphs is usually tough on rookies and basically has Reed being the only rookie positively contributing at 0.3 WAR. Last year being year of the rookie was a bad year for Fangraphs predictions regarding WAR.
Last year? He wasn't, per WAR. I really liked the Carlos Gomez acquisition; still do. I hope he's healthy. But he'll be 30 and last year continued his second half regression in '14 (.253/.336/.427/.763, post ASB). The whispers out of Milwaukee, for whatever they're worth, was that his best days were behind him. Maybe he's been hurt. I hope that's the case. Again, all things being equal - yes, he's an upgrade. But there's a touch of formality to the discussion and I think that flies a little bit in the face of some harsher realities. I don't know how much value we place on "proven" but, yes - it's a nice rotation... that they're trying to upgrade. Bullpen was not just a team strength but overall strength last year. I think it's silly to just assume a talented but still unproven closer makes it better. Yeah, well.. that's the rub, ain't it? And I'd add regress to our hopes surrounding Correa. He is very young; will be interesting to see how he responds to his first full MLB season. OK. There's certainly potential for it to be better, and I obviously hope that it is. But I think there's a lot of people taking a lot of question marks and uncertainties for granted. Young teams, generally, have a tendency to naturally regress - the league catches up to them a bit and it's the next obstacle in their ascent. We'll see how some of these guys respond; should be fun.
Or they could be like the Royals/Pirates, Rays/A's of years prior (before their free agent departures), and the host of other young teams in MLB history that simply built upon the foundation set, and didn't actually regress. Cubs/Astros/Mets all very young... but all very much expected to be in contention.
And where do I suggest it needs upgrading, cardpire?... I very clearly stated that *the Astros* are trying to upgrade the rotation, if rumors and whispers are to be believed. And that was after I called the rotation "nice" - which is a compliment and in no way refutes anything I've said previously........... I'm not sure what "proven" means or how it has any positive impact on the team. But, other than that...
you don't...that's the point. you say yourself that there's no need to upgrade the rotation, yet you're using the fact that they may be trying to upgrade the rotation as an argument towards why the team won't necessarily be improved
I think next thing is another starter and kazmir should be the one. With him we have best rotation in the AL: 1. K 2. McCullers 3. Kazmir 4. McHugh 5. Fiers How many teams would have Kazmir as your number 3 starter? Or a guy with 19 wins as your 4th? Or a guy with a no hitter and a very low whip as your 5th? Another starter with the category of Kazmir makes this team over the top and that way we can live with one of the worst DH in the AL.
Yeah, I get it... and I'll readily admit I don't remember the full context of the earlier discussion (though I do remember it was at least in part related to their possible pursuit of a $200MM free agent pitcher...) but you're really conflating two entirely separate ideas. My opinion of the rotation has no bearing on *their* opinion of the rotation. If they're trying to upgrade it... seems dubious, or at least, premature, to consider it a likely area of improvement next year. (And I have no idea, at all, what impact "proven" will have...)
So in your opinion, they won't possibly be improved next year... based on "their" opinion of the rotation that they're trying to improve... even though your opinion is that the rotation is fine....??
