Getting a frontline type SP isn't a huge priority for 2018. It's for beyond and that's why I would be highly surprised if Tucker or Whitley was included in a Cole package unless an extension window was given.
Cole is not an ace any more. That said he's still one of the 30-40 best pitchers. About 20 of the best pitchers are on likely playoff teams. Just not many of these guys available. As long as Whitley or Tucker, dealing prospects should be fine. That said, Pirates wanted Torres from Yanks.
If we wouldn't part with Bregman for Chris freaking Sale, there is no way we part with one of our newest best prospects for Gerritt Cole. Fisher + filler would be one thing; Fisher + Whitley or Tucker is completely different.
I remember hearing other GMs being quoted as saying Astros loved their prospects too much. But what if s true is there are legit MLB guys in the Astros minor league which are being blocked at the Majors, but are ready to step in and play. I think this is more pertinent to the Reeds, Moran, Fisher, Hoyt, etc. I see the Astros trying to make a package of any combination of the aforementioned.
True and some say Jake isn't an ace anymore either and after what Yu did in the World Series some are holding out the ace money on him too. That's why I said we have plenty of starters, let it ride till June and see what you need if anything on the pitching front. I feel like Peacock and Morton are going to take what they experienced in the post season and put out a really good season in 2018. Morton is pitching for a contract and Peacock is hitting his prime, both of those guys had some serious numbers for the season. I'm not saying they are a lock to be an ace but with JV and Dallas they can be some of the best 3-5 starters in all of baseball. Who knows maybe McHugh has a better season than Cole? Maybe Lance stays health for a full season finally and becomes a true ace to go with JV and Dallas. The Astros just need to not have all 5 starters hit the DL and kill the pen in the first half of the season. They survived it once though!
Generally I agree, but I will say that Bregman for Sale was a different time and a different team. He had already crushed AAA and shown a ton at the ML level, so it was easier to feel good about holding. I feel great about Whitley/Tucker, but they still have more variability on them than Bregman did at the time IMO. And there wasn't a WS in hand yet, so thoughts had to be about creating the long-term window. With a title in hand, I'm sure they're thinking about the window similarly...but they might be willing to sacrifice some of the super long-term for the medium-term more than they would have before.
fWAR by year 2014: Cole 2.3, McHugh 3.2 2015: Cole 5.5, McHugh 3.7 2016: Cole 2.5, McHugh 3.1 2017: Cole 3.1, McHugh 1.1 Total: Cole 13.4, McHugh 11.1 Career k/9: Cole 8.44, McHugh 8.19 Career bb/9: Cole 2.34, McHugh 2.49 I just don’t see a meaningful difference there when considering the prospects and money involved. Over the last 4 seasons, McHugh has been more valuable than Cole in 2 of them.
Unless the Astros believe they can work on his mechanics/pitch selection and make him better than he has been. Or The Astros rely upon different metrics or the Astros are bluffing interest to make the Yankees pay more or pressure Darvish to sign.
Or use the same metrics, but weights data like Steamer that projects Cole for an fWAR of 3.8 and McHugh at 1.2.
Nah. Those Steamer projections factor in depth charts, so they only have McHugh throwing 120 innings. They also project McHugh’s HR/9 to go up more than 40% from last season and his career average.
That’s all fine, and if Houston trades for Cole, those reasons are why I will be excited about it. But from what we can know and infer right now, I don’t see Cole as a good value for the Astros.
I think you may be on to something Nook. This seems way to public and almost seems to be poking Yu (and his Houston Strong) shirt to make a decision and come over to the good guys.
Even ramping up McHugh to 200 innings..things don't look very similar. McHugh's arm didn't work for half of last season and is older. Over the last three seasons, Cole is producing about 23% more fWAR than McHugh per inning with both having one injury plagued year. But hey, 4 years ago McHugh was better and McHugh was slightly better 2 years ago than an injured Cole so it all averages out to the same pitcher. They have data we don't have. I doubt it says being older, closer to an injury, and performing worse lead to the Astros projection having Cole and McHugh valued similarly going forward.
Bingo. Prior to '17, Cole carried a career FIP of 2.98. I don't know what happened last year (it ballooned to 4.08) - but the prospect of this front office and Brent Strom getting their hands on Cole should drown Astro fans in saliva. Again, I don't follow him or the Pirates; maybe there's something fundamentally wrong with the guy. But he just turned 27 four months ago. And under club-control for two years (which the Astros could leverage for a longer deal, if desired). We can compare Collin McHugh's statistics all we want: 1:1, no one here (or anywhere else) would take McHugh over Cole.
Rating prospects is a hit and miss affair. I do lean towards giving our brass the benefit of the doubt. But this is also the bunch that put Appel ahead of Bryant.
Well Appel was considered a top 3 draft prospects back-to-back years. Hype got to his head just like Mark Prior.
Are you suggesting Prior was overhyped? Arm trouble, yes... but he was just as good as advertised at his debut.
Suggesting that 1.1 status got to his head... Prior admitted as such. He was pressing too much and rushed through his rehab (multiple times) to live up to his billing. Appel also let his draft status get to his head... and he has shown flashes but cannot deal with the pressure.
But that's an apples to oranges comparison. Prior was a proven MLB stud who handled postseason pitching fine overall, naturally he would want to get back out there. Rushing to return from injury is different from simply being unable to pitch well
