Manny Machado...but he'd also be a rental of sorts. If it only took one... and not much else... Chris Archer would be very appealing given his club control.
Cole is overrated, no doubt, but if the price is right you guys could do a lot worse. He's an Eric Bledsoe. Drafted high, occasional moments of brilliance and incredibly injury prone. Also wholly incapable of being "the man", but in the right situation (with lowered expectations/pressure) could be a valuable piece of the puzzle. If your third or fourth best starter is tossing 200 SO's, I'd say your team is pretty good. Lucky for you guys.
Any deal for Tucker or Whitley would have to include a player you believe to be the fully-formed MLB version of Tucker or Whitley (if that makes a lick of sense). For example, I would (probably) trade Tucker for Yelich. Whitley for.... Stroman. That may be the entire list, honestly (holding it to players that are/might be available; I mean, if Trout were made available, I'd package both of them for him - but he's not going anywhere). Honestly, I think Gerrit Cole is close to making my list; I'm very high on him. If not Whitley..... maybe Bukauska.
Tucker for Yelich would be a no brainer, as Yelich is basically a realized version of what Tucker's likely outcome is, and is under contract for 5 years at a very cheap contract. In general, I'd be willing to trade Tucker for any non-rental star. Whitley is the better prospect at the more important position. I think his ceiling is ace, and his likely floor is as a dominant guy out of the pen (injury can always make him nothing). I mentioned Fulmer because his name was thrown out there last year and he has 5 years of control. Stroman & Archer are certainly candidates as well.
Yeppers. Forgot about Fulmer; yeah, he'd be on the list, too. But not Archer. It'd be a nice story - but he's been a league-average pitcher for two straight, full seasons and is 29. I'd like to have him, sure - but no way for any top-line pitching prospect.
Players I would be willing to include Whitley OR Tucker for: Judge Trout (would do both) Bryant Yelich Sanchez Posey (Giants would have to pick up some salary) Bellinger Votto (Reds pick up all the money) Realmuto (Tucker but not Whitley) S Perez (Tucker but not Whitley) K Seager (Mariners would have to pick up some salary, Tucker but not Whitley) T Turner Kiermeier Stanton (Yankees pick up all the money) C Seager (would do both) Lindor (Tucker not Whitley) Kluber (would do both) Scherzer (Nats pick up some money) Strasburg (would consider both if Nats picked up all the money) Greinke (Arizona picks up the money) Archer Fulmer J Gray Manaea (Tucker not Whitley) Price (Boston picks up all the money) Synergaard Cueto (Giants pick up all the money) Chapman (NY picks up the money, Tucker not Whitley)
This is how I see things. I like Cole alot too and would trade Tucker if I could get Cole to sign an extension. tucker for 2 years of Cole is too much. IMHO However a case can be made that the best chance to win another world series is within the next 2-3 years and if that's the case you might have to bite the bullet and trade Tucker for Cole.
Color me crazy... but I actually like the 2-3 year short contracts we are getting these pitchers on, both in terms of payroll flexibility as well as injury risk/performance ability. Tell me one pitcher who truly lives up to the life-span of their entire contract for just one team... You could say Verlander, but the Tigers were hamstrung by his deal (along with others) and really couldn't put a great team around him. If they acquire Cole, and have him for 2 years, they're probably going to be getting max value and max ability. Both factors will regress with an extension. Nolan himself said he'd never offer a free agent pitcher a contract more than 3 years, and he was a freakin pitcher that signed big (at the time) FA deals!
I think I agree. Buy out his two arbitration seasons and offer him four or five years - that would take him through his age-30 or -31 season. You will likely maximize his peak potential and not be stuck with a heavy contract that extends into his likely regression years. ETA: Plus, it's your safety net for Keuchel's likely departure. As is, Cole buys you just one extra year.
Definitely agree with this. Always want to be developing pitchers, but really don't want to count on a pitcher too much more than 3 years out.
Depends on age, IMO. Cole just turned 27. A 3-, 4- or even 5-year deal should maximize his potential/peak before any concerning regression (assuming '17 was an indication that the regression had started, which I don't think it was...) Darvish, oth - or even Keuchel? Much less urgent to give out deals beyond 2-3 years.
Not always about the age. Dallas won the Cy young award at age 27. At the time, would have loved a 4-5 year extension. Now?, in hindsight? He’s had two injury plagued years since, and has this year to go. Sorta glad they’re not fully locked into him at an increased rate... unlikely they would have gotten their money’s worth if he was being paid the $20 million/year buyout rate.
With today being the deadline to get in arbitration figures, should we expect a Cole trade to go down today (if at all)?
Depends on how you define value. They won a World Series in large part due to him and his elite performance. Would you rather have the $100MM but no WS title? When you pay these that kind of money, part of why you're doing it is not just their season-long performances, but also to be the stabilizing and key elements of a World Series run. If you even get 1 World Series as a result, you can argue that it paid for itself.
Today probably has a higher probability than any time until the after arbitration, but unlikely that the Pirates feel too much pressure to trade today.
This team having Morton as a 5th starter is completely unfair. I like Peacock as a utility guy out of the pen/starter.
But they already had Keuchel till after this year based on arbitration... that's not what is being discussed. He was going to be part of the WS team regardless. Extending him back in 2015 (buying out the arbitration years) would have them possibly paying him $10 million a year MORE for these past 2 years... along with being committed to him the next 2 years at a higher rate. Paying him a higher salary in 2017 and 2018, to ensure they have him for 2019 and 2020... would have given them less payroll flexibility this past year. Basically, I'm on board with Dallas not having gotten an extension previously... and yes, its with the huge benefit of hindsight (with him having 2 injury plagued years). At the same time, I wouldn't necessarily want to extend Cole immediately (if they get him). Lets see what he does over the next 2 years... if he's amazing, and he prices himself out of their budget, so be it (and it will likely be with another deep 2 playoff runs). If he falters... or gets injured... which is always the probability with pitchers, they're not locked into him longer than needed. Again, I like the 2-3 year contracts they're getting these guys on. I like the fact that they maximized Kuechel's arbitration years, without overspending on an early extension that would have granted diminishing returns and less payroll flexibility. I think its entirely safe to say that Dallas' best years are behind him... he can still be very good, but I highly doubt he's in the Astros long-term plans.
C'mon, no whammy no whammy no whammy, let's get Gerrit Cole done today! It's funny, out of all of the options, last week I would have ranked Cole as my third favorite option (and been pretty "meh" about it), behind signing Darvish (and losing no prospects), and trading for Archer (for premium prospects). But now, trading for Cole for good prospects (but getting to keep Whitley and Kyle Tucker) seems like the PERFECT compromise move. As opposed to investing $100M+ on Darvish for 5-6 years, we would only be investing about $25M-$30M total over the next two years with Cole, who is also only 27 years old. And instead of trading the top tier of prospects, we would be trading away talent from that next level (i.e. Fisher, Martes, Moran, Reed, etc.). Damnit, I wish this Cole trade would have been official. Why play with my emotions Jon Morosi, why?!
I just envision Charlie Morton going up against another team's 5th starter and penciling in a W for the Astros. Please make it happen.
There may be some degree of urgency with the Astros, though, as I'd wager they have a more... robust method for countering players in arbitration.
