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Astros “Baseball Only” thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by The Beard, Feb 17, 2020.

  1. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    James, Abreu and Valdez all having very strong starts to the spring. I know it's incredibly small sample size, but if we get a legit starter and a legit pen arm out of those three this year, 105+ wins are very much in sight
     
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  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I'm liking that James hasn't walked anyone so far. Cutting down walks is all he needs to do to be very effective. Abreu may be playing himself into AAA as Astros may want to keep him stretched out. Framber, much like James, is control away from being an effective starting pitcher.
     
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  3. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Interesting that they used Whitley for only one inning again today...and a good inning!

    Even with him ticketed for AAA, seems like they would be stretching him at least a bit

    Any chance they are looking at him as a pen arm for the beginning of the year in Houston???
     
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  4. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I don't see the Astros burning Whitley's service time as a reliever. They are taking it slow and not building up a ton of innings on his arm so he can possibly contribute later in the season.
     
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  5. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Yea I get that to an extent, but another 1 inning outing on a day short of rest, doesn't point in that direction
     
  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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  7. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  8. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    They mentioned on the broadcast that they're just looking to get him positive outings first and then will build from there.
     
  9. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    According to Strom, Whitley didn't come to Spring Training ready to pitch.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Based on the undertones on Whitley, it’s very, very concerning.
     
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  11. Nook

    Nook Member

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    They want to build his confidence. He has issues outside of baseball. The hope is that he gets them figured out before he flames out.
     
  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    My reading between the lines of the combo of Whitley saying “I took it easy this offseason” and Strom saying “he showed up out of shape” was “this kid is suffering from depression or some other mental illness”.
     
  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Could be something as simple as young and stupid inexperienced. I definitely was skeptical in him making wise choice when I read that Whitley was up 40-50 pounds and he thought that extreme weight gain was a good thing.
     
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  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Far more detrimental to Houston’s future than the cheating scandal is the recent signs that the next core phase might bust (Alvarez mysterious knee issues, Whitley overweight and ineffective, Tucker still not seeming to get it). Those 3 players all bust and the Astros are looking at another full tear down after next season (QOs for all departing FA, potentially trading Bregman).
     
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    That would drop the Astros to about 24 projected WAR in 2022 using Fangraph Standard Aging Curves with 42 million in dedicated salary (62 for luxury tax) and about 3 WAR from the farm combined. Assuming Astros maintain a $208M payroll and can acquire WAR at a $10.5M/WAR rate, the Astros are looking at about 86-88 wins back of the napkin calculations. 86-88 wins is nothing to be jumping for joy over, but as far as projections go, I doubt any AL West team has that rosy of a projection for 2022 considering they are struggling for a projection that good in 2020.

    Please note as always that projections have wide range of error. There is a chance Astros are rebuilding in 2 years if all three of those bust. I just think a team with Bregman, Altuve, Toro, Straw, Urquidy, and James without any albatross contracts is not a team that screams rebuild two years out.
     
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  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The pitching development this season will also go a long way to determining how competitive they are after 2021. Urquidy, James, Abreu, and Javier (in addition to Whitley) all have significant upside, and if they can get 2 ToR SP out of that group they’ll surely continue competing. But if they don’t get any, then they’re in trouble because they don’t currently have the farm to trade for more Verlander/Cole/Greinke types. Like you said there’s a lot of variance projecting that far out, but if you had to distill it down, I think the trio of Whitley/Tucker/Alvarez have an outsized impact on the probabilities.
     
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  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I'd put a lot more faith in Bregman/Altuve/150+ million dollars worth of MLB players than I would in Whitley/Tucker/Alvarez. Heck, I'd put more faith in Bregman alone than all three of them. Same goes for the $150M.

    Those 3 players being a bust means Astros will need someone else to step, need no other team stepping up in the division, or that they are more likely fighting for a wild card. None of that screams rebuild.

    Edit: I see Whitley and Tucker as more guys that if they hit have huge ability to extend the window as a Superteam and not as a prerequisite for a wild card contender. I don't see wild card contender as full rebuild.
     
    #57 Joe Joe, Mar 9, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2020
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  18. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Contributing Member

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    Hey guys, don't worry, I turned out just fine!

    Signed,
    Jon Singleton
     
  19. elrond

    elrond Member

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    Random thought of the day, what happens if the season gets completely canceled due to Coronavirus? Springer becomes a free agent, or would he have to play for the Astros for one more year? I suppose he becomes a free agent, but can't be bothered to look it up. Man would that suck.
     
  20. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    There would surely be a negotiation between the players and league. I think technically service time isn’t accrued until the season starts, so by the current rules, no pre-free-agent players would be granted free agency. My random guess is that players would be given the service time and free agency, but a special one year QO policy would be created to allow teams much more leverage to retain those free agents (something like the QO amount being the player’s 2020 salary and coming with a 2 draft pick attachment).
     
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