Are we going to ignore that Harden's MidRange TurnAround Jumper is unstoppable?

He should use it more often especially when he can’t get any calls or make any 3s. Harden usually gets less aggressive when he doesn’t get both of these in a game.
Those 2s were going in so smoothly remind me of Kobe or MJ post ups.

My guess is the analytics has gone to everyone head and they want to stick wit only 3s and layups but u can’t do that when you shooting is off

 

So your suggestion is that if your shot is off then you should switch and start taking shots that you arent very good at making?

Interesting.

 

1. this is like saying if you cant win games with our hallmark offense you shouldn't try to win it on defense because were not good at it

2. yes you should try something different when you're cold because its clearly a mental thing, so you switch mentality by doing something unusual and it helps you out of the bad trance (its kinda tactic somewhat similar to coach consciously taking a technical to ruin the momentum of other team and galvanize/wake up his own team) )

3 taking a midrange when you are cold on 3s also confuses the opponents defense because the next time its harder for them to predict what will you do

4 at the end of the day open midrange is a better shot than covered 3 or covered layup particularly when youre cold , if youre cold/covered on 3s and layps it probably means they are leaving you the midrange wide open

 

No, it's like saying that Harden is an amazing scorer who can score in many ways and he's uber efficient at what he does (just under 62% TS%).

He has other ways to score and hes done that his whole career. Hes also been below average from midrange his whole career.

If as you say, it's a mental thing, then why do you believe that he will suddenly become good at something that he's always been uncomfortable with? If you have confidence issues then you should go to the things you are most sure of.

Missing 3s isnt going to magically turn him into even an average midrange shooter when he's never been that. If he's shooting so poorly that he has confidence issues then we arent going to say "Yeah James, your shot is really off tonight, why dont you switch to taking more of those shots that you've always sucked at".

Harden isnt having trouble scoring. He never has. He's leading the league in scoring (again) and he's still historically efficient. What exactly is the problem that you are trying to solve?

We get more open shots than most any team in the league. It's not about confusing the opponent. What the Rockets do is pretty simple but teams cant stop it.

We have definitely had times where we shoot poorly and miss open shots. That's not because the opponent has figured us out and we are forcing bad shots.

The Rockets offense is predicated on getting high percentage shots. For most players, that's free throws, shots at the rim and open 3s. Even though the opponent knows what's coming, we can still generate a huge number of open 3s each game. That's the advantage that we have over GSW. They shoot better than we do but they cant create nearly as many open 3s per game.

How many times have we been shooting the 3 poorly and then go hot? When do you know to abandon shooting 3s?

The Rockets are going to continue to seek efficient shots. I highly doubt that they will decide to focus on an inherently inefficient shot like midrange. I'm especially sure that they arent going to have a super efficient scorer like Harden take more of those inefficient shots when he's never been good at them.

 

lol it is a great weapon... i am not a world beater at lighting up the fire but it nevertheless help me tremendously when the winter starts

someone may be average at layups but when they are in transition running to the basket with no one in front of them they should lay it up

 

Do you realize that average at layups is almost 90%. Conversely, only 6 players in the entire league shot 50% or more from midrange last year. That's the whole point, you dont even have to be a good 3 point shooter to be more efficient than the very best midrange shooters. Why do you think that Houston has been a top 2 offense even without elite 3 point shooter?

Both this year and last year, we have shot 42% from midrange. That equates to 28% from behind the arc.

In the 99 games that we played last year, we shot below 28% on 3s a grand total of 5 times.

Again I will ask - What's the problem that you are trying to solve.? You seem to be focusing on things that rarely occur.

 

I'd love for him to mix in a mid range jumper when they are in the middle of a streak of 27 missed 3's.

Do you have a stat that tells you what to do when the team can't buy a basket?

Stats are great when taken in context. They will direct you to wins over the course of a large sample size. If there wasnt a playoff system, then the stats would rule. If the best record was the champ then great. Daryl could be the coach. It would just be like a computer simulation.

Thats not how it works though. Stats become skewed in small sample sizes. They don't play out over a 7 game series. That's why upsets happen. We probably didn't miss 27 threes in a row all regular season but it happened in a single game. Your stats would tell you that shouldn't happen.

Sometimes Harden should post up. You can't disprove that with season long stats because they aren't specific to the opponent. You can't disprove that with stats vs a certain team because the sample size is too small.

I really don't think some people around here have taken statistics courses to understand the difficulty in using them for controlling processes/ game plans.

 

GREAT ANALYSIS
heres another thing
what happens when your legs are are tired(cant hit the 3) and the refs swallow the whistles(cant go for a layup)? Do you go for a layup, and you know the refs wont call it, because its the most efficient shot or you fire the midrange?

stats should be a help to better thinking not a substitute for thinking

 

Exactly. There's so many variables that have to be evaluated. The stats these guys are posting ignore what you just mentioned. They also ignore one of the biggest things of all. What if the guy Harden is posting up is 6ft tall and sucks at post defense? Of course harden should abuse that guy. If the opponent is Donkey then it's a bad shot. Season long stats for Hardens midrange don't even account for something as obvious as that.

Never mind how the momentum of the game is going. Injuries. Refs. Player feelings. Who is playing with Harden to draw defensive attention. It goes on and on. Those things matter in a single game.

Like you said, stats help you make decisions. Stats are not a substitute for thinking.

 

NAILED IT

 

You are right but it’s just not worth it anymore to try to educate some people.

Some around here will die on mid range hill.

Not even trying to be mean but some of these guys you talk with on the board talk about the game like they didn’t really experience playing at a very competitive level. Like their experience is if it’s a movie or something. The main character struggles with what he’s good at so he has to mix it up to save the day. Sounds like a cheesy basketball movie thing and not a real life thing.

 

Wish he would go to the midrange more often when he is not hitting from three or constantly getting stuffed at the rim (which doesn't happen very often but still).

 

LOL, Mauri and his acolytes would get rid of RBs if they ran a football team and tell boxers to stop using jabs if they were trainers. The only context in which optionality is valued is when talking about assets and trades.

 

Would love this to be his 2018-19 Renaissance move. This was the move that made him the clutchest player of 2015. Only makes sense now that he's mastered drawing fouls on the step back.

 

There is such a stat. What you do in that situation where you can't buy a basket is take the best shot. The stats say take a layup. If there's no layup, take a 3. If there's no 3, pass the ball. If you tried the layup and the 3 and now you're trying in the midrange on one possession, you are wasting everyone's time. If you're taking a midrange jumper during a possession because you couldn't get a layup or 3 before, you literally need to be sat down and educated. There are no possessions where you couldn't get a layup, a 3 or pass the ball.

These things have been studied. As @Haymitch put it, if you just need to take a shot that makes you and the statistically-challenged fans feel cool, launch one up from 35 feet. Stop wasting everyone's effort with a mid range shot unless you get stuck while trying to get a layup or 3.

 

That’s why morey went out and for the best midrange shooter in the league right? That’s why he chased melo and lma right?

 

Does CF harbor so many Ex pro ballers?

 

I don’t mean even pro. High school, AAU, competitive leagues...

I get the feel of a lot of kids ymca and middle school type attitudes. Give everyone a try! And like I said a lot of cheesy movie cliche type stuff on how to play better.

But that’s just me.

 

I'm not a mathematician or a statistician, but IMHO the percentages do not mean much when it comes to game situations. For example, even if you have the statistics saying Harden shots 30% from midrange in the clutch, in a particular game how can you know if this shot will go in?
Same thing can be said when it comes to missing shots, knowing that last year the team shot for example 35% from 3, how could you predict that they'll miss 27 straight 3 pointers!!!?
I know i might be extremely wrong, but I think that the statistics are being overused and overrated, thus ruining some aspects of the game

 

This