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[APBRMetrics Board] Scary +/- stat regarding our guards

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Nov 28, 2010.

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  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2669

    It links to list of adjusted +/- for players over a 5 year period. You can rank them by offense, defense, and overall.

    So out of curiosity, I clicked on the list for defense and guess who was at the bottom?

    Code:
                             [B]Offense   Defense     Sum[/B]
1      Garnett, Kevin     1.95       6.3       8.25  
...
825    Martin, Kevin      1.85      -3        -1.15
826    Brooks, Aaron      1.8       -3.3      -1.5
    Yikes.
     
    #1 durvasa, Nov 28, 2010
    2 people like this.
  2. Felece

    Felece Member

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    Kinda expected... They cant defend air
     
    #2 Felece, Nov 28, 2010
  3. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Contributing Member

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    but Chuck's number 2! :)

    It's always nice to see statistical interpretations that identify what we see on the court visually.
     
    #3 Hayesfan, Nov 28, 2010
  4. choujie

    choujie Member

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    DD will still say defense is all on big men. Its obvious Ab/Martin pair's offensive gain can't match up with defensive loss, starting them together is looking for trouble. It was the biggest problem in that 0-5 start.
     
    #4 choujie, Nov 28, 2010
  5. sealclubber1016

    sealclubber1016 Member
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    That's a stupid stat.

    I bet every scrub that played a game for Dallas, San Antonio, Boston, and Phoenix will be high on the list. If there are 800 + people on the list, most of the guys on the list are out of the league. 450 max players in league.

    Neither guy is as good as their PPG would indicate, but any list with 800 players is flawed.
     
    #5 sealclubber1016, Nov 28, 2010
  6. jevon3012

    jevon3012 Member

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    But Yao Chuck Dikembe Shane are all at the top of that list while Landry and Scola are also near the bottom. Seems like pretty solid numbers.
     
    #6 jevon3012, Nov 28, 2010
  7. BEAT LA

    BEAT LA Member

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    [​IMG]
    How play defense, coach? Like this?
     
    #7 BEAT LA, Nov 28, 2010
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    (1) You're confusing +/- and adjusted +/- with your first remark.
    (2) Its over a 5-year period, and while its less reliable for some players than others, I believe there is a minutes cutoff.

    Edit: nevermind the minutes cutoff. It looks like players who haven't gotten sufficient minutes will be close to 0 by the rating (which is probably overrating for the most part). Still, that our starting guards would just happen to be dead last is either a huge coincidence or something that should be a big concern.
     
    #8 durvasa, Nov 28, 2010
  9. sealclubber1016

    sealclubber1016 Member
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    If there are more than 800 players on the list, the minutes cutoff can't be that high.
     
    #9 sealclubber1016, Nov 28, 2010
  10. rockets934life

    rockets934life Contributing Member

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    Looks about right, I am afraid that either AB will end up on the bench or one of them will be dealt.
     
    #10 rockets934life, Nov 28, 2010
  11. Fuzzybear

    Fuzzybear Contributing Member

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    Dammit, hide this information Durv - so that someone will take them at the deadline.
     
    #11 Fuzzybear, Nov 28, 2010
  12. thekad

    thekad Member

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    2 time DPOY Dwight Howard is not in the top 30.

    durvasa, do you think Yao Ming has been a better defensive player than Dwight over the past 5 years (keep in mind Yao's back-ups are ranked #2 and #3, respectively).
     
    #12 thekad, Nov 28, 2010
  13. choujie

    choujie Member

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    It's adjusted +/-. It means the number has nothing to do with team records, it is relative to player's own teammates, how the player contributes to his own team. Otherwise you won't be able to explain why Hayes, Deke,Yao in the top 10 but AB dead last on the same team.
     
    #13 choujie, Nov 28, 2010
  14. htownrox1

    htownrox1 Member

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    Ouch.. :eek:
     
    #14 htownrox1, Nov 28, 2010
  15. el_locoteee

    el_locoteee Member

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    Yao low minutes and in and out, Kyle injured, Adelman refusal to play Hill, playing vs incredible hot teams. That was a problem, and we lost by little points. And if you see all those game we lead at the Half and second half melt downs was the biggest problem, problem we haven't solve yet.

    BTW he only lost 4 games the last one you can't blame it on him, he didn't finish and missing two FT by Lee was the biggest problem in that particular game.

    Aaron = Second Round in the playoff in 11 years.
     
    #15 el_locoteee, Nov 28, 2010
  16. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Yeah, you're right. Patrick Patterson is on there (given a 0 rating), and he hasn't played. Just have to ignore those.
     
    #16 durvasa, Nov 28, 2010
  17. sealclubber1016

    sealclubber1016 Member
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    Mario West, Walter Hermann, Lawrence Roberts, Jackie Butler, Hassan Adams even Maurice Taylor.

    I'm not saying you're not right about Brooks and Martin being overrated, but the list needs to be refined.
     
    #17 sealclubber1016, Nov 28, 2010
  18. choujie

    choujie Member

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    I've said it many times, Howard's offense is underrated, his defense is overrated. And he has improved on his defense the last couple years, so it's no surprise he ranked lower in 5 year span.

    Also keep in mind, DH's overall impact is right next to Yao, which is very reasonable.
     
    #18 choujie, Nov 28, 2010
  19. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Oh, sure, it shouldn't be taken as an exact ordering of the players. Though its clearly capturing something true about individual impact of the players without relying on the typical points, rebounds, assists-type stats, which means you don't ignore it either. If someone is particularly high or particularly low, you may want to take notice. And if your two starting guards are right at the bottom, that's a huge red flag.
     
    #19 durvasa, Nov 28, 2010
  20. sealclubber1016

    sealclubber1016 Member
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    I have trouble believeing Dirk has a better defensive impact than Kobe.
     
    #20 sealclubber1016, Nov 28, 2010
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