Another Democratic Debate Tonight

Do people realize that the GOP just won a presidential election by pandering the most base desires of the GOP base and ramping up the turnout of their base?

Donald Trump literally word for word with no exaggeration on my part proclaimed his desire to ban an entire religious group from immigrating to this country. And he won the election. And people are freaked out that Medicare for all is too extreme for the moderate independent voter.

That's how they won unless people think Trump appeals to moderates.

Another example of Democrats being subconsciously held to a higher standard by the media and public in general.

The GOP primaries in presidential elections hardly care about convincing urban minority voters yet for some reason Democrat primary voters really care about convincing the white blue collared voter who was questioning Obama's birth certificate 6 years ago.

We might have had a Democrat presidency for 8 years, but for the past decade , the GOP has been kicking the Democrats' asses collectively when you consider state reps, governorships and US Senators and Reps. They have no shame in pandering to their supporters to motivate them to flood the polls rather while ignoring the rest of the country. They are good at that and it has been effective for a decade now.

 

That's not at all how he won. The GOP base didn't come out in large numbers in 2016. He won by flipping traditional Dem voters in the midwest to Trump, largely on trade issues where he veered left. We know that both based on exit polls and because he overperformed specifically in those few areas where trade really matters and underperformed in much of the rest of the country (where immigration was still a big issue). The data is pretty clear on that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/...nout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout.

Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected.

To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.

Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.

This isn't about "convincing the white blue collared voter who was questioning Obama's birth certificate 6 years ago". It's about convincing white blue collared voters who *liked* Obama and have voted Democratic for a long time.

 

The goal of reaching across the aisle is pointless. We have over 12 years of the GOP refusing to compromise on any issue. Anyone who believes otherwise isn’t going to vote Democrat regardless of the candidate.

To have any success implementing progressive ideas, you can’t have “moderate” candidates who don’t take a hard stand. Obama tried that and was run over.

 

He won two elections

 

Because all four of current frontrunners have potentially fatal flaws, and we’ve already seen a lot of fluctuation in how they’re polling. Some of have peaked. Some are rising. Some are fading.

There’s still plenty of time for someone like Klobuchar to continue have standout debate performances, overperform in Iowa, ride a wave of positive press and have a surge similar to Pete’s.

That having been said, to be technical: you asked why someone would think ONLY Klobuchar or Yang can win the general — I don’t believe that. Warts and all, I could see someone like Biden or Bernie potentially winning. Just saying, there’s a lot of time left. I know it’s uncommon historically for someone pulling in single digits at this time to do so, but these are weird times.

 

He also got health care coverage for 20-30 million people, was able to force through key reforms in the financial system that make 2008 much less likely, and was able to raise taxes on the wealthy to help bring down the budget deficit. It seems to me that most of the people who say moderates can't succeed are people who have little knowledge of history.

 

That's true in every election, though. It's not like one person just leads wire to wire with no fluctuations in polling. Nothing about of any of that suggests they can't win. Obama had the fatal flaw of being a black man with a weird name that included Hussein in it, and he dominated his two elections. Trump insulted minorities, women, people with disabilities, etc and managed to win.

I love Klobuchar, but I would also suggest that she and Yang and others have plenty of their own fatal flaws - no one cares enough to go after them while they are 3%. Similar to how no one bothered with Pete until he surged in Oct/Nov.

 

Didn't he extend Bush tax cuts?

Didn't he also allow WallStreet bankers responsible for the crash in 2008 to walk Scott free with impunity?

Also Obamacare was on shaky grounds in the first place where an opposing party could easily dismantle it because the federal mandate does have serious constitutional viability concerns that always could be interpreted as unconstitutional from a conservative leaning court.

 

I gave you a like but I still believe in Warren.

 

I’m not saying the fluctuating in polling suggests any of the current frontrunners can’t win, since as you correctly noted: that’s common. What I’m saying is you’re seeing people like Warren rise then dive with more exposure (and scrutiny). I think that’s going to be the case with Pete as well. The only two constants as I see it, polling or otherwise, seem to be Biden and Bernie. They seem to be the two capable of withstanding the scrutiny coming from both sides, and not allowing their flaws to derail them.

But if I’m someone like Klobuchar, I’m not hating the position I’m in right now. She’s quietly building momentum and finally starting to distinguish herself from the rest of the pack, while people are simultaneously having second thoughts about some of the candidates.

I went canvassing two weeks ago in one of the first to vote states, and I’d say 90%+ of the people I talked to were still undecided and seemingly underwhelmed by the current frontrunners. Most of the polling I’m reading seems to back that up as well.

There’s still a window. It might be a small window, but it’s worth hanging on until Iowa and New Hampshire. At least for Klobuchar. With Yang, it’s a little different. I respect him and appreciate his outsider’s perspective, but I’m just not convinced he has much time left in this race. I just don’t think enough people “get” him and he might be spinning his wheels at this point.