BTW, for everyone clamoring for the Astros to empty their farm system for the latest available name (and I've been guilty of it myself) - this is why they have to strike a balance between winning today and planning for tomorrow. This could conceivably be a $200MM nucleus and I don't see that happening so they have to retain extra bullets. There are two elements of this I find fascinating. First is how the Astros - and all their analytics - view Altuve both presently and down the line; I would bet considerable wads of cash that they have very strong opinions about his sustainability. The other aspect of this is to what degree - if any - Crane values Altuve beyond the baseball field. Obviously, at his current pace, he has a chance to hit some significant milestones and could one day be in line for a summer trip to Cooperstown. Will Crane care as much about that as McClane obviously did? Or will money, production and the numbers rule and make this an agnostic, Patriot-like organization?
I will say this much in regards to your final paragraph. I have it on very good word that, while he does care about winning, Crane ultimately will not make any moves that would be bad business moves. That he cares about having a good team because it will sell tickets/merchandise/advertisements etc., but that he isn't willing to sign splashy FA's or extend players to huge contracts if he doesn't think it would result in him raking in more money. I think this might be true of a good amount of sports owners, but it doesn't surprise me to hear it about Crane. I won't be surprised if he considers re-signing some members of this current nucleus to be unwise business decisions in a few years. It will be interesting to see how much he ultimately values winning compared to making money.
I wouldn't expect Crane to worry about that stuff this early in his tenure. a) Tuve hasn't been that good for that long. The general rule is 10 good years of production for the HOF and Tuve is working on 3+ elite years. Extremely long way to go. I thought tight pants Lance was a sure bet at one point. b) Crane probably hasn't been an owner long enough to worry about legacy.
I've seen some similarities between Astros and Patriots so far in how they run team even with completely different salary structures. I think Astros will try to keep players as long as deals are market value and don't pose too big a risk (i.e. contracts so big an injury would cripple team). I don't think there is a way for Astros to compete without having a lot of players under pre-free agency club control. They just don't have the money to pay market price for free agents, their own or other teams'.
I'm not sure the Astros would do that. Altuve just seems like such a weird and unique player and seems harder to predict going forward. I think the Astros would happily take the 2 super-cheap years and let him walk if he's great, rather than risk a big contract for 6 more years if it turns out he's a bit of a fluke.
An early extension is a gamble both ways. True they could take the surplus value for the next two years but 8/160 could also be a ton of surplus value as well. At $8m/WAR, thats only 2.5 WAR person season to break even. If he's an all-star player for the first four years (ages 28-32) he essentially pays off the contract and everything else is gravy.
True. But right now, he's on pace to be more than halfway to 3,000 hits by the end of 2019 (~1,630). And he's ahead of Pete Rose's career hits pace (1070 hits in 3,733 PA; Rose 1,008). I know milestones are, well, miles away - especially for this deal. I just wonder if Crane places any value on the possibility.
More than any other player, I'd love to shoot Luhnow full of truth serum and find out what they *really* think of Altuve. I've worried about his sustainability for years - and he continues to defy me. I would guess he breaks their models; I'd imagine there aren't a lot of comps for Altuve.
Astros already have first two years for 12 million. For extension, team would only look at last six years and odds to make 148 million. Assuming normal aging, 7.75 million $/WAR in 2017, and an inflation rate of 5%, He would need to average 2.25 WAR. If you think he'll age well, it would be about 2 WAR a year. Aging poorly, about 2.75 WAR per year. Personally, I would guess age poorly as guys as guys on the extremes typically don't age well excluding Ichiro. Edit: Though, like HeyNow...I've been wrong more than once on Altuve.
He has Boras as an agent so you get two choices: Over pay him before he hits free agency or say good bye. You guys are dreaming if you think Atluve takes a 5 or even 6 year deal at age 29. Robinson Cano got a 10 year 240 million dollar deal at age 31. I believe Cano is a better player but that contract will be 5 years old when Altuve is a FA. He will likely get 25 million or more per season. My guess 8 years 200 mil gets it done and no way Astros give up those 2 options years. In other words.... say good bye and trade him before he hits free agency.
