Altuve

I'm gonna guess a lot of money will do the trick.

 

How much goodwill (if any) would there be within the clubhouse if the Astros rip up the final few years of this club-friendly contract, and pay Altuve closer to market value for him? It would be a lot more money upfront, but it might help our chances to sign the rest of our core long term. Obviously the money would have to be close, but I think showing that respect to Altuve could have a domino effect for those close to him (specifically Correa). Of course, it could also mean nothing, meaning you just paid Altuve more than you had to (although you could argue that he has earned so much surplus value, it's not the end of the world anyway). The handling of our current core (Altuve, Correa, Springer, Keuchel, McCullers, and Bregman) will be fascinating.

 

They could easily treat it akin to buying out some players arbitration years, in order to get a discount on the first few free agent years. Those years are basically what Altuve has left now... team options.

In this case, its highly doubtful Altuve accepts anything (again) below relative market value.... but who knows what market value will escalate to in 2020?

I think if they're willing to listen, the Astros should try to work out something now rather than later. You can't say he hasn't earned it... and even with a sizable raise, the Astros have come out on top big-time regarding his overall production/$.

 

Hard to predict given the variety of factors at play. But if I were the Astros, I'd probably attempt to strike a relative bargain this offseason buying both years out, and otherwise buy out his '19 option the following year by paying market value and extending him for ~7 years if the team salary structure can handle it.

What is interesting to think about in context of a future contract is the comp for Altuve's aging. He relies on his speed a lot, and players like that often don't age well. But infielders who rely on speed can often make up for it. Perhaps I'd think about him aging like Ian Kinsler on the conservative end (losing a lot of speed at 30 but maintaining double digit steals), or Biggio aggressively--who somehow didn't hit the speed wall until he was 35! (wtf Bidge..amazing)...all while maintaining his bat speed and hit tool through age 35 at least.

While Altuve would be great in either scenario, I think the latter aging curve deserves a much bigger payday.

 

Fascinating is not the word I would choose. Heartbreaking is more what I am expecting for most of those guys.

 

Question. Since baseball doesn't have a salary cap, what is the point of doing a Harden like raise before his current contract is up? Present value of money is always greater, so theoretically Jim Crane can save whatever they are saving from Altuve's current contract and be able to give him a market contract later? It's just money right?

 

Perception and feelings related to how the FO treats players. Influencing likelihood of that player re-signing when his contract is up, and likelihood of other players re-signing (or externals signing as FAs). You need things like Biggio turning down Colorado to happen more often vs. Randy, Beltran, DK, Hampton, etc.

 

Maybe offer him 5-90? That would make him 2nd highest paid 2nd basemen. Also we will get all his prime years.

 

In baseball, teams sign players early, but for less money than their expected value suggests as the teams are taking the risk that player gets hurt between present and when player is a free agent. Players typically only take these type of deals for life changing amounts (i.e. they and their children are set for life). Players that already have several millions of dollars usually are willing to bet on themselves.

When a player does sign early, payments are usually not made upfront and made taking into account Net Present Value Calculations.

 

Did not know this. Very interesting. Thanks!

 

Yea it really depends on the particular number/AAV he's looking for. I bet he's lookin for more than $20m per year. If his number were just $20m per year i'd tear up those last two option years and give him a nice shiny $100m/5 year extension today. $125m/5 I'd consider but they'd already be tearing up alot of surplus value from the lost options.

 

Teams hand out risky back end years depending on how many "safe" front end years they are getting. If a player signs at 30 teams will give them an 8-10 year deal because they imagine they are gonna get at least 4-5 years of safe prime level production.

If Altuve hits at 32/33, then I doubt he gets more than a 5/6 year deal because he's nearing the age redline at the start of the contract.

So if I'm Altuve's people, I'm demanding a premium if you want to buy out almost all of his prime years. It would take 5/100 to even open discussions. If Altuve were to go into FA in 2020 and only demand a 3 year deal, he would get 90 million easy. Multiple suitors would likely drive that number much higher, because it would be an extremely low risk contract.

 

If I were Altuve, I probably wouldn't take a deal now unless it was REALLY worth my while. Being a FA at 29 is much different than being a FA at 31 or 32. He can probably collect a lot of money in his later years in the former scenario.

But beyond that, I think the effect on other players is highly overrated. Generally, those players are going to sign where they get paid the most. Hometown discounts are extremely rare, especially for a first FA contract. What Altuve gets is probably not going to make Correa or anyone else more or less likely to sign with Houston.

 

Baseball reference lists this as his age 27 season. If the Astros offered to tear up the last two options years and replace it with an 8 year/$160 mil contract who blinks first? He ain't getting an 8 year deal at age 29 imho. His skills/profile are too unique to fit into natural aging curves.

 

I think Altuve would not sign it. If I recall correctly, contracts 2-3 years before free agency are usually about 60% expected value. That would sound about right (148 million for the 6 extra years) if Altuve didn't have millions already and wasn't outspoken about not signing early.

Not sure Astros would do it either. They have seemed very opposed to incurring debts before they have to inccur them. This may change once Crane is out from under the investors, but don't think he will ever be a free spender.

 

Before this offseason, I'd say Altuve would be crazy to take that deal. Now I'd say he should take it if offered. There wasn't an Altuve in this FA class, but only Cespedes really got paid well and even that was a shorter term deal. Do players gamble that this was just a one year outlier, or is it the new baseline?

 

I'd look at the Heyward deal two offseasons ago. He was younger, with a three year average of about 5 WAR, and got 8 years/184 versus the proposed 6 extra/148 extra for extending Altuve.

Heyward probably gave up a little on the back end of his deal to get two opt out years. Also, defense usually pays a little less than offense.