According to sabermetrics James Harden was tied for 2nd as the most valuable player in the NBA

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by HardenTime, Jul 28, 2016.

  1. HardenTime

    HardenTime Member

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    with russell westbrook and behind stephen curry

    scrolling through espn. i found a sub-link called "CARMELO" done by nate silver and allison mccann. They update the players profile after the completion of each season. The object of the formula is too combine every statistical category from topg, rpg, blocks, ppg and then compare that said player to 10 players over the last 40 years with the most comparable seasons.

    stephen curry is obviously number 1, and i love how the graph calculates monetary value... so for instance over 5 years in an uncapped cba stephen curry would be worth 366 MILLION over 5 years( you think nba superstars are underpaid lol)

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/stephen-curry/


    as for James Harden he is tied with russell westbrook for 2nd in monetary value at 322 MILLION over 5 years.. no other nba player was in the 300's, some maybe the ranking is due to age on regular season performance

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/james-harden/

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/russell-westbrook/


    notice the 10 comparable seasons that 2016 harden compared favorably too.. his season wasnt that bad.. 2006 kobe was in the same situation harden was in last year

    these 2 links below show the impact of James Harden last year, harden got us an estimated 23 wins with his play, so if you take harden off the team, and replace him with a lets say a corey brewer we maybe win 24 games

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/VORP


    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/VORPe

    -----------------------------------

    and this is for those who dont believe james harden is the best shooting guard in the NBA

    ive pulled the CARMELO accounts of the other top sg's( klay, derozan, butler, wade).. none come close


    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/klay-thompson/

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/demar-derozan/


    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jimmy-butler/

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/dwyane-wade/


    Ive always thought James Harden was a top 3 talent in the NBA, now this sorta confirms it
     
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  2. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Wait, is that the formula,,,,? To rate a player based on combining each per game stat?

    Sounds like the formula used to pick David Robinson as MVP over Hakeem in 1995...and further, even after 1995 that Robinson was the better center on all-time listings.

    Hell, even in MLB, which has the most effective stats of any sport by far, there isn't one stat to show who should be MVP.
     
    #2 heypartner, Jul 28, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2016
  3. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    and apparently every player has peaked and all are now on a downward trajectory for the rest of their career.... smh....
     
  4. ImMikeV

    ImMikeV Member

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    If you read into the methodology, they include a heavy regression towards the mean. Then they have a range of possibilities of improvement or further regression from there.

    Here's a good article on where they were right and wrong with their projections.
     
  5. Mathloom

    Mathloom Contributing Member

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    If MVP was actually judged as the most prolific contributor to his/her team's win totals, then I have no doubt Harden has been top 3 since the day her got here.

    Kevin Durant just left a team with Russell Westbrook on it that went to the WCF finals and was 2 minutes away from beating a 72 win team. Harden is sticking to a team where a demotivated and ageing Dwight Howard was his best teammate ever.

    My only problem with this though is that I'm not sure Harden is capable of or aware of how to give some of that up in exchange for a higher win total.

    Your team could win 10 games and you could be responsible for 9 of them. That might make you the most valuable player of the team that season, but it doesn't say whether or not that team could have won more games if you passed the ball more.

    Disclaimer: I'm not saying he's selfish, I'm just highlighting the context of this type of statistic.
     
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    The stat rewards passing as well as scoring efficiency as well as defense, right?

    Are you saying Win Shares is strictly based on scoring efficiency metrics
     
  7. tinman

    tinman Contributing Member

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    There are only two Rockets who have the MVP award.
    not second place according to some dumb site
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Pizza_Da_Hut

    Pizza_Da_Hut Member

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    Thanks for the nonsequitur.

    Anyways, this doesn't strike me as news. Harden did A LOT for this team last year. He was big for us, a lot of people undervalue that because they are broken inside and need to curb the loneliness and dissapointment in their lives by lashing out against him. It's cool, I get it, Harden like Ghostbusters, the other political candidate you won't vote for, and the other phone operating system you won't use ruined your life. I'm sorry for your loss(es).
     
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  9. chievous minniefield

    chievous minniefield Contributing Member

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    Harden is amazeballs. A lot of folks don't see it.

    He should've won MVP in 2014-15.
     
  10. Pizza_Da_Hut

    Pizza_Da_Hut Member

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    See I don't agree with that. I think an MVP should have to play defense. Neither Steph nor James does. Gimme a Klay Thompson or a Russel Westbrook as MVP. Maybe even an Anthony Davis. That doesn't mean Harden isn't incredibly good, He is straight up amazing.
     
  11. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    Did your just say Klay as an MVP?
     
  12. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Rookie

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    Coulda fooled me.
     
  13. Pat

    Pat Contributing Member

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    Per dollar is a different stat, but I have trouble accepting any list that does not include Lebron James in the top three.
     
  14. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    The CARMELO formula is based just on box plus minus now. Previously they used real plus minus as well.

    I don't think BPM is all that great. Also it's multi year, so it's include hardens great 14-15 year which might not be as relevant compared to last year
     
  15. mfastx

    mfastx Member

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    Harden's defense was just fine in '15.
     
  16. YaoMing#1

    YaoMing#1 Member

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    I'm just trying to wrap my mind around how you just put Klay Thompson and MVP in the same sentence.
     
  17. tochiee22

    tochiee22 Contributing Member

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    I approve this message
     
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  18. tinman

    tinman Contributing Member

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    Harden needs to play defense, only then will he join the pillars of Rockets history
     
  19. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member

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    I guess it doesn't track defense.

    DD
     
  20. TheRealAllpro

    TheRealAllpro Member

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    This just reminds me of how this stupid Derrick Rose rule that caps how much a star player can make essentially is the reason the Warriors exist.
     
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