About 4 to 5 Chances to Hit a Home Run

At first glance I was neutral or bored about the Patterson pick. However, there is only about a 15% chance of hitting a homerun i.e, scoring a superstar in the draft and given the inability to get into the top 5 the chances are even less.

Chances, but not in any percentage order.

1) Chris Paul comes this summer. It might take getting rid of Scola or perhaps Martin, Brooks and picks. Essentially our two best players besides Yao.

2) Of course we might still get Bosh this summer , but he probably won't come. I consider this more like a triple frankly if that is all we do and gut many of our role players.

3) Yao returns at full strength. If this happens it will be next year, after the league sees it, when we can cash in the chips that keep growing w. Patterson being another. Remember it was just two or three years ago when we had Yao, Tacy and we were moaning that the only player that was tradeable for anyone worthwhile was Battier who wasn't exactly a game changer. If Yao returns as a monster, free agents will look at our role payers and want to come here. We will be able to afford to trade virtually any combination of players plus picks to get the other superstar.

4) Another but aging superstar or two will come here for a last hurrah or two to imitate the Celtics. Tim Duncan for instance. Steve Nash? Trades like this will require some chips which we keep acquiring.

5) We hold steady and make the playoffs with a useable but slightly diminished Yao. No major trades and just another good to great role player or two and then we score big with one or two top three picks in the draft from New York.

Overall our tactic of just acquriring more chip patiently has a very high percentage chance of paying off.