ABC News Reports RNC Exploring Options if Trump Drops Out of Race

I don't see much of a chance this ends well for the GOP.

1. If Trump stays in, he'll continue to be Trump and drag other GOP candidates into each controversy-- and risk either alienating the broader electorate or alienating the GOP base every time the media ask them about the latest Trump garbage.

2. If Trump is forced out via some party rule, he'll b**** and moan about what a undemocratic process it is (and he'd have a point). It will spark a GOP civil war within 3 months of the election.

3. The least likely scenario is Trump getting convinced to leave voluntarily. His ego is too big, especially in light of the big crowds he's drawing and the donations that are coming in, to admit defeat even if the polls show him down significantly. He'll think that there is a big "silent majority" out there waiting to vote Trump.

Even if he does drop out, I don't know how enthusiastic he'll endorse his replacement and how much his voters will even buy his endorsement in their disappointment. True, the vast majority of Bernie voters have rallied around the Democratic flag, but that was at least a part of a primary process. An unprecedented quitting of a nominee is going to introduce weird variables.

In sum:

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His endorsement means nothing. Honestly if they could convince him to drop out in the next month, they'd have a good chance to beat a really weak Democratic nominee. Basically the only thing that makes Hillary look good is Trump, without him, she'd be in trouble.

 

Someone like Kasich would have had a good chance if he was the nominee to start with. Having him as a "replacement" is going to introduce some complications, though-- specifically all these disappointed Trump supporters just going "F this!" to the GOP, and perhaps to the entire electoral process. He may still be favored over Hillary, but we are getting into a weird territory here.

 

Those people aren't really relevant though, if they were, Trump's numbers wouldn't be going down the tubes. The people who are truly loyal Trump voters are a tiny percentage.

If given a truly viable alternative to Hillary, I think you'd have tons of supporters coming out of the woodwork. She is nearly as bad as Trump....only it doesn't seem that way due to the presence of Trump.

 

She's not "nearly as bad as Trump."

Trump is a unique class of is own throughout history. I'm not sure we've ever had a candidate that was so roundly disavowed by national security and foreign policy experts/analysts/professionals with ties to both sides of the aisle. I can't think of another presidential candidate in history that lacked the core competency that Trump lacks.

I know you are prone to extreme hyperbole and that you hate Clinton, but she isn't in the same class as Trump. Not close.

 

Hillary is bad in the sense she is a corrupt politician that likes to operate above the law sometimes, like just about all top level politicians from both parties. Trump on the other hand is totally incompetence in how to run the country. I would much rather have a competent corrupt politician than a total buffoon who think nuclear weapon is something you can use to destroy ISIS.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Look a the polling after maybe the worst week in the history of modern american politics. He still gets about 40%. Say what you will, that's loyalty in big numbers.

Hillary is a known quantity. She's got the left 40% locked in regardless. The 20% in the middle would avoid her in droves and vote for a candidate like Rubio/Kasich but would the Trumpites do so? Highly unlikely. We saw that last spring. They would view it as a betrayal.

The only way Trump leaving would work is if he does it voluntarily...maybe uses a "health issue" as an excuse...THEN gets behind Mike Pence at the top of the ticket and candidate X for VP. That's the way I see it.

In short, get ready for President Hillary Clinton and 4 years of ****.

 

How many of those 40% are just voting against Hillary? I would guess more than half.

 

Does it matter?

Here's the thing. Expectations are so historically low for a candidate like Trump that, even after possibly the worst week in the history of politics, he's still within earshot. What that tells me is that a similarly bad week for Hillary could be much more damaging.

Same goes for the debates. Trump shouldn't care when or where. The expectations for him are lower than low. If he can put together a couple of complete sentences, his toupee stays on, and he doesn't literally murder someone in the audience, it will be considered a success.

 

Its hard to find a statistic on how many people straight ticket vote, but I suspect its high. In other words, it doesn't matter how bad either candidate is, people will vote for their party regardless.

 

I think it's not that simple. Take me for example. I was not at all psyched about Hillary. But with Trump's nomination and everything that has followed, Hillary has gained credibility in comparison. I have a better opinion of her than I did six months ago, thanks to Trump! And I don't think a replacement Republican will remove the credibility that Hillary has gained in the eyes of many. Plus, much of the Republican party is tarnished now for their extreme weakness. If they can F this up so bad, how bad are they messing up smaller issues?

 

If Hillarys credibility has risen from your perspective because the bar has been lowered (Trump), then YOU are the problem.

You state the Republicans have lowered the bar so this gives the excuse for Democrats to lower the bar? Quit voting for either of them. It speaks volumes for the people who vote for either candidate.

 

We all know either Trump or Hillary will win, so stop this vote for third party spiel.

 

Probably not unless he drops out, which he ain't gonna do.

I'm just saying that I highly doubt 40% of the country is "loyal" to Mein Trumpf (sorry, I just can't help myself). Maybe 10% or 15%, but the rest of that 40% are just voting against Hillary.

Theoretically, if he were to drop out, I doubt 40% of the country would be that angry.

 

Well, even 10-15% can swing an election.

13 million of GOP primary voters voted for Trump. They won't vote HRC but if they stay home, it could make a difference. Also, I think a good chunk of the folks who turned to HRC due to Trump will stay with her. But anyhow, we will never know for sure unless Trump is actually replaced.

 

or voting party line. Like Pippen in a Rockets jersey. Ya still support the team....but damn, it hurts.

 

Hillary could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not have as bad a week as Trump just had.

 

Shouldn't Hillary intentionally court some bad press for a couple days to keep Trump alive in the polls for a while just to make sure he doesn't drop out?