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A Thoughtful Defense of NOT Expanding the trade

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by finsraider, Jul 18, 2019.

  1. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    While I am miffed that no additional players were included in the Westbrook deal, after spending time looking at what options may have been available to us , I’m not sure that waiting wasn’t the right choice.

    First, let’s put a massive disclaimer on this...IF we don’t sign Shumpert to a deal of significant enough size that would allow us to be a player in trade negotiations later in the year, then you are free to tar-and-feather me and drag ownership through the mud.

    Now, we need to realize that currently 40% of players cannot be traded for various reasons, chief among them would be that many just signed contracts. That’s a huge number, and really shrinks the pool of potential options.

    After that, we have to look at what the Rockets would want, which boils down into 2 categories: stars and 3&D forwards.

    There are only 2 stars that may be available right now: Bradley Beal and Kevin Love. For Beal, I’m sure we would be outbid for him. Our remaining picks don’t have much value (likely in the 20s) and I don’t see how Gordon or Capela gets us enough to trump other offers.

    With Love, I do think there might be an element of financial calculus with him. His contract may have cost Tillman $80+ million per year before we even account for the repeater tax...and that’s for a player that you aren’t sure can stay healthy or stay on the court against Kawhi, George, Steph, Lebron, etc. It’s reasonable to look at that and think he’s not worth it.

    Now we move on to 3&D forwards. I think these can further be divided into 2 groups...players you KNOW are better than Danuel House, and players that might be better/as good as House.

    The reason for the distinction is important: if you believe a player is roughly in the same ballpark as House, then:

    1) you can probably get him later
    2) why commit to the salary and luxury taxes before seeing what House can give you?
    3) why trade assets now that could be used to get a better player if House turns out to be a contributor?

    This could explain why a player like Jae Crowder wasn’t added into the deal...you can probably get him later, you aren’t sure House isn’t just as good as him, and if House is good enough, why waste an asset on Crowder when you could get something better later on.

    But my guess is most everyone is concerned with the other group...players we KNOW are better than House. The list here is short, simply because quality forwards are in short supply, and as mentioned earlier, many of these guys just signed contracts.

    Before the list, let’s talk about potential trade partners. Right now, there aren’t many. Any team that THINKS RIGHT NOW they could contend or make the playoffs isn’t going to trade a productive forward. My list of potential trade partners is short (and perhaps should be shorter):

    East
    Atlanta
    Charlotte
    Chicago
    Cleveland
    Detroit
    Miami (probably not)
    New York Knicks
    Orlando (probably not)
    Toronto (probably not)
    Washington

    West
    Memphis
    Minnesota
    Phoenix
    Sacramento

    Heres all of the trade eligible players on those teams that are clearly better than House AND their team might be willing to trade them:

    Aaron Gordon
    Igoudala
    Covington
    Winslow
    Siakam

    Regarding Gordon, i have no idea how Orlando values him, but wouldn’t be surprised if our 2020 and 2022 picks weren’t attractive to them.

    With Iggy, it’s possible that he’s indicated to Houston that he would sign with us if bought out. Obviously this is speculation...what’s not speculation is that trading for him as is would cost Tillman $50 million in salary plus taxes....for a player that averaged 23 minutes per game last year. Let’s see how this plays out.

    For Covington, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s earmarked for GSW in a deal for DLo later in the year. Minnesota already knows our offer, and it will still be there when DLo is available in December. They would probably prefer him to our 2 1st round picks in 2020 and 2022.

    Winslow - as one of the last assets Miami has, it wouldn’t surprise me if they held onto him for a bigger deal later on, or if wanted just to keep him to play with Butler.

    Siakam - it doesn’t look like Toronto is rebuilding, and they probably value Siakam more than our 2 1st round picks.

    IF WE WAIT, 3 things may happen that could improve our chances at adding a significant player:

    1) Some teams will discover that they aren’t as good as they thought, which may make some guys listed above more available than they are now.

    2) Iggy (and others) may get bought out.

    3) Newly signed players will be eligible to be traded in mid-December. Aminu, Oubre, Etc.

    THE KEY to all of this is that SHUMPERT is signed to a large enough deal to facilitate a trade later on. IF THIS IS NOT DONE, then we have effectively boxed ourselves into the buyout/minimum market, and Fertitta can be roundly criticized for ducking the tax again.
     
  2. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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  3. topfive

    topfive CF OG
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    But Tilman is so cheap he bought a used plane!

    Can you imagine? A used plane!

    Signed,
    ClutchFans
     
  4. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    Seeing that it's not the organization's job to qualify each move or non-move they make, we're left to speculate. Bima clearly does this in an educated way using the cap and numbers. That's awesome that he shares his educated opinions with us. I tend to trust the moves they're making overall. Why hamstring yourself if it doesn't clearly make you better?

    People get so angry about us not getting Robert Covington or whoever, but they don't seem to ask what he'd cost us. Nothing is free. If no one had contracts they were looking to get rid of for free, then why are we upset as fans? That seems a little ridiculous. It's like we asked a friend to ask a girl out for us, then when he returns and says 'it didn't happen' we cry over it. Hell, maybe she straight up didn't like us. That's life. No need to cry over it like some emo sissy.
     
  5. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    I got lost in the analogy... maybe I'm tired. I was tracking for a little bit. I think you're saying each potential spend has its drawbacks? Nothing is free. I get t it when applied to moves that may include giving up picks. But Tilman has passed up moves where the only thing the Rockets give up is money. Plus Tilman has made moves to give away players and picks just to get back money savings.

    I don't know what the right analogy would be. You're wife says she'll do anything to help your kid succeed in school, but instead of paying for extra tutoring, she's selling all the school books to fund her gambling habits. Your kid still might win academic decathlon, but it won't be because of your degenerate wife. Lol, this is a terrible analogy, but yours is bad too.
     
  6. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    Yeah, you're tired. Also, your analogy is the worst ever. It's as if Joe Rogan took over for Doctor Phil and attempted therapy on tv, but like worse.

    You do know that Morey is the friend we've requested to ask out the girl, right? Either way, I appreciated your attempt to make an analogy.
     
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  7. blahblehblah

    blahblehblah Member

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    Nice analysis, though I disagree with a couple minor points.

    1. Why view it as a question of House vs Crowder, Iggy etc... when part of the benefit to acquiring any 3-D wing would be their addition to House in the rotation.

    2. Daniel House is not better than Jae Crowder. Crowder(28) is a proven vet and provides good defense, toughness as well as decent shooting. He's proven to be an integral part of the rotation of playoff teams in Utah, Cleveland and Boston.

    3. Crowder performed as expected in the playoffs in 18-19 (11/6 52% TS 26 mpg) while House performed terribly (5/3 42% 20 mpg)

    DHouse definitely has the potential to be better than Crowder, but aside from his 39 game regular season, he hasn't proven he can do so over an entire season or the playoffs. And in the event that he does, that still doesn't diminish the value of adding Crowder to the rotation but rather complements it.

    Lastly counting on Crowder, Iggy or anyone else choosing the Rockets after (maybe) being bought out is depending entirely on chance.

    Agreed about Winslow, Covington, Siakam all being unlikely.
     
    #7 blahblehblah, Jul 18, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2019
  8. blahblehblah

    blahblehblah Member

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    SHUT UP AND LISTEN!
    IT WAS A BRAND NEW PLANE!
     
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  9. DasouthDakota

    DasouthDakota Rookie

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    People keep throwing around Jae Crowder, Iggy, etc etc as reasons why TIlman is cheap.

    First how is everyone so sure we even want Jae Crowder? How are people so sure that teams even wanted to trade us Jae Crowder /Iggy or etc for what we were offering?
     
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  10. JW86

    JW86 Member

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    Appreciate the OP, but this is the only reason.

     
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  11. Highlyrated

    Highlyrated Member

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    2 1sts for Covington? Heck no dude
     
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  12. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة
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    If you dun have enough individual defenders, you rely on the defensive system.
     
  13. Highlyrated

    Highlyrated Member

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    Bimathug doesn't like the Westbrook trade,even though it gives us a higher chance to winning the chip .look at twitter
     
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  14. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة
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  15. cerophilik

    cerophilik Member

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    Though, Joe Rogan might do a better job. Dr. Phil isn’t a real doctor or therapist he is more like a paid actor with a script. Plus most of the people there are paid. So your analogy wasn’t any better :D:p
     
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  16. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld ಠ_ರೃ
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    I think it was the right business decision. We as fans have a prerogative to want more and more, but as an entrepreneur, I would have made the same decision. Paying $40M+ for one season of Iguodala, plus increasing the repeater tax risk, would have been insane.
     
  17. Gray_Jay

    Gray_Jay Member

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    There are used airplanes and there are used airplanes. Someone at CF tried to rhetorically compare the two 767-300s the Patriots bought with the 767 the Rockets bought, and I replied with the respective public ownership histories for each airplane. Similar age, but for the Rockets plane...I don't know how much Fertitta's company paid for it, but if he 'got a deal', I can see why.

    Good thing a quality maintenance & overhaul program can make modern airliners good as new.
     
  18. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    I'm aware of his non-credentials. He's not a puppet with a script. No way every moment of that show is scripted. So yes my analogy works because he's faked it until he made it. I'm married to a licensed therapist and she believes he's got therapist skills from practicing.

    My analogies still win.

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. macan

    macan Member

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    #avoidLuxurytaxatallcost
     
  20. Mr.Scarface

    Mr.Scarface Member

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    Um you can’t expand the trade WITHOUT OKC. OKC had trouble getting teams to bite on Chris Paul (Miami). Without Chris Paul moving, that trade was never going to be expanded.

    Stop with the luxury tax BS.
     
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