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A Few Thoughts Regarding the Team's Approach and Morey's Tenure

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Marsarinian, Jun 19, 2012.

  1. Marsarinian

    Marsarinian Contributing Member

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    I really shouldn't be spending time writing this, but I've been have (quite strong) opinions on this topic for a while and thought it would be useful to share with the forum.

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    Many posters on Clutchfans are unhappy with the direction (or lack thereof) that the team has followed in the past 1-2 seasons. They point to the consecutive 14th picks as exemplifying the state of "perpetual mediocrity" that the team seems to be stuck in. Most of these posters believe that team will benefit from a complete rebuilding effort, i.e. trading away veterans like Kevin Martin and Luis Scola for future assets such as first round picks, with the (intended) result of ending up with a losing season and hopefully high picks ourselves.

    In this post, I will not contend whether this approach is better or worse than the much more speculative, opportunistic, trade-based approach that Morey seems to be taking right now. Rather, I'd like to lay some groundwork regarding common (false) assumptions that I see people holding regarding the team's direction.

    1. We cannot be results oriented. People seem much more willing to accept "chance" events when they are presented as such "chance" events, i.e., the NBA Draft Lottery. Although a. it is difficult to obtain top 3 picks even if your team is terrible (Raptors, Pistons, also see Bobcats); b. superstars are rare and in many years, the 2nd and 3rd overall picks cannot guarantee a star player (such as this year), it seems more acceptable to "swing and miss."

    On the other hand, people say that Morey has done nothing in the past year, and that we haven't been taking enough "chances." This is not true. During this past season alone, we have had two huge moves in place that would have transformed the face of the franchise.

    I'm talking about:

    a. The Pau Gasol trade which was killed by David Stern, which based on the evidence now would have netted us a frontline of Pau Gasol + Nene, one of the best frontlines in the NBA.

    b. The rumored Dwight Howard trade with Orlando that was apparently in place before Howard decided to remain in Orlando for a year.

    Therefore, it is not true that one cannot take major chances without top draft picks, and that Morey has proven that he's not afraid to pull the trigger if such chances popped up.

    Sometimes great chances do pop up - see Portland and New Jersey's notorious Gerald Wallace trade. By gaining maximum flexibility for the team, we're in prime position to take advantage of these possibly franchise changing opportunities.

    2. What is rebuilding? To some people, it seems that only "blowing up" the team, i.e. trading veterans for young pieces, and going through multiple losing seasons qualifies as "rebuilding." However, if we look at the rosters of the past few seasons, we will see that the Rockets' roster are amongst the most fluid in the league. As I see it, "rebuilding" is simply team building with a fixed budget, and in that sense every NBA franchise that do not have a fixed core rotation are "rebuilding teams," and the line between teams that focus on utilizing the draft and utilizing trade opportunities are extremely blurry. You work with what you have, and in our case, we happen to have a lot of assets.

    3. Alternatives: I constantly see posters that bash the front office for a wrong move or a chance that was supposedly lost, and when asked what they would have done, they say casually, "well, that's the GM's job." We cannot resort to other options just because the path that we are taking is painful or frustrating - those alternatives have to be better. Rebuilding a sports team is a long term effort that is likely to be frustrating regardless of whether one "blows it up" or tries to stay competitive.

    Remember, in any given year, only one team out of 30 wins the championship, and only about 5 are legitimate championship contenders. Kevin Durants and Tim Duncans are not there every year, and even if you are, you might not have exactly that one pick to draft them. If we decide that our current approach with which we can reach our goal of eventually winning a championship, then we have to stick with it.

    Some people say that this is Morey's last stand, there have even been quite a couple of "fire Morey" threads. I find this amusing: if we fire Morey, who are we going to hire? To me, Morey embodies the rational, analytical approach to basketball to which I subscribe fully.

    I play some poker, and some key principles of poker apply here - you cannot be results oriented, and what has already happened in previous streets should not change the way you approach the next street.

    This applies to politics as well: I don't care how bad of a situation that our country's in, when electing a new president the only thing I care about is who will do a better job overall. The fact that the current president "screwed up" only factors into my evaluation of his abilities. Letting frustration or spite take over when making a decision will only lead to regret in the future. However unsatisfied with what has gone down, you must choose whats best for the future. Long term expected value is paramount.

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    Apparently this turned out to be way more of a "defend Morey" thread than I had intended it to. I'm sorry for piling on so many of my personal opinions, and I apologize for the length. I have a feeling that this post is not going to be popular, but I hope it will be helpful to some extent.
     
    9 people like this.
  2. OlajuwonFan81

    OlajuwonFan81 Member

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    This is a results driven league. How can you say to ignore the results?

    Morey is a good GM but some of your logic is flawed. I would argue that so far his results have been fairly good in terms of draft picks and trades. Still, when concerned with overall record and playoff appearances he has been a failure.
     
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  3. Marsarinian

    Marsarinian Contributing Member

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    The whole point of the post was that instead of asking "what happened?," we should be asking, "what could have been done?" We should strive to make the best possible decisions given the circumstances, which looked at in the long term, will bring about the best results. There are too many opportune events, or short term "variance," that could potential disrupt even the best of judgement. However, if that was the best that could have been done, then that is what should have been done, and that is what should continue to be done.

    I think during Morey's tenure, we have made great decisions overall. Although the results turned out to be less than completely satisfactory, I argue that given our situation, it would have been difficult to have done better. I'm just saying, if you think you've made the best decision, you have to live with the results, no matter what they are, and you have to keep looking forward.
     
  4. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Nene would have sucked.

    DD
     
  5. v3.0

    v3.0 Contributing Member

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    I don't really know what results we could have got with a frontline of Nene and Pau, but I'm glad we didn't give that ****** contract to Nene. Put it this way, I think Bynum is better than Nene and they couldn't get to the finals this year with both AND Kobe (don't really want to get into the Kobe ballhog discussion).
     
  6. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    Can I borrow your TARDIS?
     
  7. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    LOL - go root for your bandwagon team Spain - lol.

    DD
     
  8. CDrex

    CDrex Contributing Member

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    Solid enough points, I mostly agree.
    A lot of people have a quick enough attention span that it's somehow mind-blowing that we aren't a great team one year after our franchise cornerstone went down in his prime and we got nothing for it. In that regard the "given our situation, it would have been difficult to have done better" is a perfect descriptor.

    Now, the "we should have started angling for the number 1 draft pick the instant Yao goes down" thing has SOME basis in reason, but we would have basically had to trade Scola, Martin, Lowry AND Dragic for nothing to get there, and then if we failed we'd be left with something like "MKG and total crap" and we'd be right back to a mid/late-lottery team. The idea of purging your team of talent in order to acquire more talent is flawed, even if it works once in a while.
     
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  9. thetatomatis

    thetatomatis Member

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    I like Moreys approach to the GM job.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. caneks

    caneks Rookie

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    All sports are about competition and have to be result-oriented. If they are not, what is the fun part?
     
  11. LoyalRocket

    LoyalRocket Member

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    Spot on, I like the flexability we have by aquiring assets, but we're basically treading water waiting on a difference to fall in our laps but its seems the draft is still the best way if your gonna gamble
     
  12. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    I actually found this thread very insightful, and echoes what I believe about this organization's directions/non directions as well.

    Mostly the thought of "If you are going to fire Morey, who is out there that would be better?"

    If the Rockets were to fire Morey, it would take a matter of days depending on the time of year, for another team to snatch him up if he chose to stick with the NBA game.

    I think they are taking flack mostly because they are doing things the unconventional route which is not to blow it up right away and try for a couple years to pull off a Summer of 07 Celtics type of move.

    My thinking is sure, lets give it a couple of years. Sucking to have a better chance to draft an Anthony Davis type will always be an option in the future. Turning around a franchise like the Celtics did in 07 will not. In the meanwhile everyone is wanting Morey's head on a platter.

    I do think that Morey and the front office knew that the anticipation of a big trade would piss off the fanbase who is anxiously waiting for the big move to be made, and thats a risk they knowingly took. Does the old saying "good things come for those who wait" still right true? I guess we shall see.


    In the end, your right that playing NBA GM/Owner is like playing blackjack. The house always wins unless you bet big and get lucky. Either that or you learn how to count cards. Morey has legally been counting cards for years now. He can win consistently in smaller bets, but in this NBA GM game its a royal flush or bust. In order to take the house you need to swing for the fences and risk losing your entire purse.

    I personally think that Morey is showing signs that this is the point where he will risk losing his purse. The signs are there, and the past deals they have tried to make in the last year echo that sentiment. Lets see what happens on draft night and onto the beginning of training camp to see what his next move is.

    I dont think his job should be on the line because its not the GM that is flawed its the risky direction that is flawed, but I think the Rockets have nothing to loose at this point other than pissing off a few more fans over the next year, but I think Morey would agree with us all that this is the time to go ahead and swing away.
     
  13. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    Overall a decent post and I agree with most points.

    People say we have no direction - yeh we do, DM is trying to land a star - and just missed on Pau (who i dont want), D12, we were trying for Bogut and who knows who else... Remain competitve, build assets and always be lookin to wheel n deal.... THAT's the direction - realize, accept it, move on if ya dont like it!

    'Treadmill of mediocrity' is the slam tht pisses me off.... We're only a few years removed from Yao/TMac.... give the man some time...

    Houston fans are typically a buncha whiney b*****s - reference Houston Oilers leaving town...

    MOST teams are lucky if they are in position to make a legitimate run every couple decades (and some dont even get that - Bobcats, Wash, GS, etc...). Houston fans are b*****n like babies if they dont have a shot to 'win it all' or 'get a top 3 pick' every year... jus spoiled...smh
     
  14. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    To me its obvious the direction is to try and duplicate the Summer of 07 Celtics model.

    Especially since Morey had a big hand in making that deal happen in Boston Im sure its a process he believes he can duplicate on some level.
     
  15. WNBA

    WNBA Member

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    nothing new. nothing right. ignored.
     
  16. JD88

    JD88 Member

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    "In the end, your right that playing NBA GM/Owner is like playing blackjack. The house always wins unless you bet big and get lucky. Either that or you learn how to count cards. Morey has legally been counting cards for years now. He can win consistently in smaller bets, but in this NBA GM game its a royal flush or bust. In order to take the house you need to swing for the fences and risk losing your entire purse."

    Exactly right. But winning small purses is no fun, fans want to see him take the house.
     
  17. HillBoy

    HillBoy Contributing Member

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    OK, yet another "Morey's doing the best he can given the circumstances" thread. Overall, you make some interesting points. But, since you dismiss the idea of using results as a measuring stick, you then, in effect, provide Morey with a built-in and somewhat permanent excuse for failing to produce a contending team. So if I understand correctly, all Morey has to do is simply demonstrate that he's "tried" and all will be well in Rocketland. In essence, that's the situation we have now and have had throughout Morey's tenure as GM. Look, I will be the first person to admit that CD left Morey a steaming load of horse crap for a roster and that Morey had to be more lucky than good if he was to turn things around. So far, he's been pretty good but just not lucky enough so he's resorted to gambling on hitting the lottery by going after the likes of Howard & D Williams.

    a) I disagree about the voided Gasol trade. There was never any certainty that had they gotten Gasol, they would also have landed Nene. I realize that this was touted as something of a done deal around here but the reality was that was an assertion at best.

    b) Renting DH for one while gutting your team in the process did not then and does not now make any sense to me unless you plan on revisiting the circumstances of the 2006 trade between Houston and Orlando. Only this time, Houston gets to keep the star player for only one year.

    Yes, I happen to be amongst those who want to see some direction from the Rockets' organization. I have been wanting to see this for 17 years now. It would be nice to see them try something different instead of continually following strategies that have failed them before. And this swinging for the fences is something they've done numerous times since that last championship. It's certainly worked out well for them hasn't it?

    As I see it, the major problem with Morey's "speculative, opportunistic, trade-based approach" is that it can literally burn up years before it produces results (if any) but, if you are not interested in results, then that is the perfect strategy for a team and an organization that is going nowhere.
     
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  18. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    I wouldn't mind that approach, but the Rockets aren't doing that. Remember, Danny Ainge went in there and took a team that had recently made it to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals and essentially blew up that roster because he knew in his heart they weren't good enough to compete for a title. So they ended up back in the lottery for several years and sinking as low as a 24-58 record in 2006-07 before they'd stockpiled enough draft picks and young talent to parlay those assets into KG and Ray Allen.

    If the Rockets are attempting the Celtics approach, they're leaving out that key ingredient of jettisoning overpaid, undertalented players and stockpiling high lottery picks. If anything, they seem to be taking the Portland Trailblazers approach from the mid-to-late 1990's. Remember how that organization managed to rebuild on the fly without ever sinking back into the lottery? The difference there is they managed to acquire a lot of young talented players like Rasheed Wallace and Brian Grant through trades and signings respectively and then took half their roster and traded it for Scottie Quitten. I haven't seen any moves of that magnitude by the Rockets in recent years.

    The real problem isn't Morey. It's Les Alexander. We've had 4 coaches and several GMs during Les' tenure as owner. So I don't think the problem is entirely the front office or the coaching staff(although Rudy and Co. did a HORRIBLE job with the roster in the early part of the past decade). It's that they've exhibited a mentality of wanting to make big moves that will turn them into(or restore them to) overnight contenders. As I said in a different thread last week, that was ok when you had Hakeem to build around. But they haven't had a foundation like that for a long time. They thought they'd regained it with Yao Ming, but that didn't quite pan out as expected.

    You can't swing for the fences when there ain't even a pitch being lobbed your way. This is a mediocre roster that needs a lot of work. One major move won't make them contenders. It'll take a series of smaller moves and an overall coherent long-term plan to restore this franchise to greatness. As long as Les is the owner however, I don't see that happening. He seems incapable of looking at the big picture.

    And just to point out yet again how absolutely pathetic this organization has been in recent times, remember that they've won only one playoff series in the last 15 years. ONE! Over 80% of the other NBA franchises have surpassed that weak metric in the same time frame. Including teams we used to mock like the Clippers. And the Rockets have been in the lottery 8 out of the last 13 seasons. Think about that. In a league where you have a better than 53% shot at making the postseason every year, we've managed to do so 38.5% of the time in 13 years. This is a badly run organization. And that starts at the very top.
     
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  19. TEXNIFICENT

    TEXNIFICENT Member

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    1 playoff win since 1997. Yeah we're REALLY SPOILED! SMH.
     
  20. HillBoy

    HillBoy Contributing Member

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    A truly great post. You have summed up my feelings on the matter exactly. As I look back over the past 17 years, I realize that it wasn't the players who failed the Rockets - it was the owner & his organization that should be held responsible for the long slow decline we have witnessed.
     

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