2020 NFL Draft Thread

He isnt there to help bob do his job or to hold his hand as he ruins the franchise though. Hes there to promote anything and everything that the texans do as a PR guy and provide information on it, even though he might not even believe in what they do wholeheartedly.

 

[Reiss] Short- and long-term predictions for each Texans draft pick

DL Ross Blacklock

Will the Texans’ top pick be a Week 1 starter? Maybe not, but he figures to rotate in frequently. Aside from maybe Timmy Jernigan, Blacklock could immediately be the Texans’ best interior rusher, making him a better option on passing downs than linemen Brandon Dunn and Angelo Blackson. Those two, along with D.J. Reader, made up Houston’s “Lunch Pail Crew.” Reader led the group with 43 third down snaps a season ago.

In nickel packages (five DBs), Blacklock figures to play the three-technique. He could shift to nose tackle when the Texans utilize dime packages (six DBs).

“I come from a school where we run a lot of fronts, play a lot of crazy defenses,” said Blacklock, who was able to get a feel for the Texans’ defense during a pre-draft visit to the team facility. “I think it’s helped a lot since I come from TCU and I’ll be in a scheme like Coach (Anthony) Weaver’s. It’ll be much easier and I can focus more on just attacking. We read (the play) more in TCU’s defense. So I think it’ll be a good fit, a good transition.”

Predicting his contributions in 2020: Blacklock plays more than 40 percent of defensive snaps, showing flashes of a promising pass rusher but still struggling to finish plays, as he did in college. He finishes his rookie year with two sacks and six QB hits.

The realistic best-case scenario for 2023: Those pass rushing skills are more polished, as is the rest of Blacklock’s game, allowing him to step into a Reader-like role by Year 4, when he plays about 55 percent of defensive snaps while recording five sacks and 13 QB hits.

Edge Jonathan Greenard

He was primarily a weak side edge rusher for Florida last season, but injuries allowed him to show off his versatility all over the field. The Texans, who need pass rush help anywhere and everywhere, might look to deploy Greenard in a similar way — at least as a rookie, when he could be mostly limited to passing downs.

“I feel pretty comfortable in both a three-point and a two-point stance,” Greenard said. “I’ve done it all my college career, and I feel like I’m pretty comfortable on both sides, so I don’t feel like it will be any adjustments.”

Predicting his contributions in 2020: At 6-3, 263 pounds, Greenard has about 20 pounds on fellow Texans edge rusher Jacob Martin. That could enable him to play a little more frequently than Martin, who received about 20 percent of defensive snaps last season, nearly half of which came on third down. Maybe Greenard receives closer to a quarter of the defensive snaps and finishes his rookie season with three sacks, plus eight QB hits and five tackles for loss.

The realistic best-case scenario for 2023: By now, Whitney Mercilus is entering his age 33 season and will count for $14 million against the cap during the final year of his contract — unless the Texans cut him and eat just $1.5 million in dead money. Greenard has shown enough promise to be an at least average starter, which at this point sounds better to Houston than an expensive, aging Mercilus.

OT Charlie Heck

The Texans moved up in the Round 4 to acquire him, but if all goes according to plan, Heck will never make a start.

That’s ultimately unrealistic. Injuries happen. But barring a dramatic change in the Texans’ plans, Laremy Tunsil is entrenched as the left tackle, and Tytus Howard is the starting right tackle. Picking up the 6-foot-7 Heck, a former high school tight end whose technique needs work, was about adding depth.

Predicting his contributions in 2020: Many offensive linemen, even good ones, struggle as rookies. So don’t expect much from Heck this season. He might be the team’s No. 2 swing tackle, behind Roderick Johnson, but he could still be active on game days. The new CBA expands game rosters to 48 players, but three of them must be reserve offensive linemen.

The realistic best-case scenario for 2023: Is it too early to begin talking about Tunsil in free agency? Asked why he wanted just a three-year contract extension, Tunsil said he “felt like three years was better than four, just to give me another opportunity to get in the free market and just to go from there. I’ll get to free agency around 28, 29, so I feel like that was the best opportunity for me.”

The Texans, as of now, likely hope they’ll agree to another extension with Tunsil before then and secure him for his prime. If they do, and Heck has shown enough in limited reps, maybe he becomes a trade asset for the Texans. But if they don’t sign Tunsil to another extension, 2023 might be Heck’s final year as a backup, before he takes over at left tackle.

CB John Reid

Any cornerback selected on Day 3 will have to make his mark on special teams, and Reid seems like someone who will take on that role with the right attitude and little fuss. After all, Reid skipped out on a Penn State recruiting barbecue to watch film with the defensive coordinator and gravitated toward coding because it’s “relatable (to football) in the case that I could work really hard at it, it’s really detail oriented, and you can constantly see results if you put the work in.”

Predicting his contributions in 2020: Don’t count out Reid playing up to 20 percent of defensive snaps. He’ll have to work his way up the depth chart, but Vernon Hargreaves, the other backup slot corner on the roster, was less than impressive in six games with Houston last season. The Texans brought Hargreaves back, but on a one-year deal worth just $1.3 million. If Reid overtakes him, expect the rookie to get his hands on some balls. He broke up 10 passes in three straight seasons at Penn State. Let’s guess he records two PBUs this season.

The realistic best-case scenario for 2023: Reid’s size (5-10, 187) ultimately limits him to being just a slot corner, but in today’s NFL, that’s a valuable position. And on the 2023 Texans, it’s an open one, as Bradley Roby’s contract expires a year earlier, clearing the way for Reid to become a regular contributor on defense and perhaps work his way off special teams.

WR Isaiah Coulter

Though no other team made the debate-worthy decision of trading an All-Pro receiver without getting a first round pick back in return, the Texans’ shakeup at position in some ways followed a league-wide trend. They, like many others, prioritized adding speed, hoping to build an offense that can keep pace with the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. It’s why Houston traded for Brandin Cooks, then drafted Coulter, who ran at 4.45 40.

Still, at about 6-foot-2, 198 pounds, Coulter struggles with contested catches and breaking tackles. Being simply a speedster might not get him far as a rookie, when he’ll be part of a group that’s well-stocked with such players.

Predicting his contributions in 2020: Barring another change to the receiving corps, Coulter sits below Cooks, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills on the depth chart. Fuller and Cooks both have noteworthy injury histories, but unless the Texans encounter some terrible luck, it’s presently hard to imagine Coulter receiving more than 30 targets as a rookie. Maybe he finishes his rookie with around 200 yards and one touchdown.

The realistic best-case scenario for 2023: Coulter adds strength without losing his speed, making him more of a playmaker in space. By now, he’s in his third year as a regular member of the receiving rotation, having stepped into Stills’ spot after one season. Coulter finishes 2023 with 40 catches, including at least eight explosive receptions.